Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0651 PM CST Sat Nov 08 2025

Valid 090100Z - 091200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
EASTERN GEORGIA...THE CAROLINAS AND LOWER OHIO VALLEY...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms with hail and isolated severe wind gusts will be
possible early this evening from eastern Georgia into parts of the
Carolinas. Hail may occur after midnight in the lower Ohio Valley.

...Eastern Georgia/Carolinas...
The latest water vapor imagery shows a mid-level trough over the
Ozarks with west-southwesterly flow located from the trough eastward
into the eastern U.S. At the surface, a moist airmass is located
from the Gulf Coast states extending northeastward into South
Carolina and southern North Carolina. A moist axis is located across
South Carolina, where surface dewpoints are in the 60s F. Near this
moist axis, the RAP has MLCAPE in the 1000 to 1500 J/kg range. Along
the northern edge of the stronger instability, scattered
thunderstorms are ongoing. The WSR-88D VWP near Columbia, South
Carolina has 0-6 km near 45 knots, which could be enough to support
a marginal severe threat early this evening, mainly with cells that
exhibit signs of rotation. Hail and isolated severe wind gusts would
be the primary threats. The threat is expected to diminish by mid
evening.

...Ohio Valley...
A mid-level trough will move eastward across the mid Mississippi
Valley tonight. Ahead of the trough, an axis of low-level moisture
is forecast to setup as a surface low moves eastward into the lower
Ohio Valley. Thunderstorm development is expected near the surface
low after midnight across northern Kentucky, southern Indiana and
far southwestern Ohio. Ahead of the trough, strong large-scale
ascent will overspread the lower Ohio Valley. In addition, RAP
forecast soundings just ahead of the surface low late tonight have
MUCAPE increasing into the 250 to 500 J/kg range, with effective
shear increasing to about 30 knots. This, combined with steep lapse
rates from 850 to 700 mb could be enough for hail with short-topped
cells.

..Broyles.. 11/09/2025