Issued at 2100 UTC FRI SEP 07 2018


930
FONT14 KNHC 072057 CCA
PWSAT4

TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE
WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 1...CORRECTED
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092018
2100 UTC FRI SEP 07 2018

CORRECTED BIN NUMNER FROM 2 TO 4

AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 13.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 34.9 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H.

Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME

WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS

CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...
...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...
...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS

PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE
OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)
(CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
18Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)

PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.


- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -

FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED

FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION KT

DOMINICA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3)

MARTINIQUE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3)

SAINT LUCIA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3)

BARBADOS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5)

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI



Source: Tropical Depression Nine Wind Speed Probabilities Number 1


David Cottle

UBB Owner & Administrator