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#468661
Fri 07 Sep 2018 08:43:PM
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Joined: Feb 2001
Posts: 381,903
Launch Director
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OP
Launch Director
Joined: Feb 2001
Posts: 381,903 |
Issued at 200 PM PDT Fri Sep 07 2018
009 WTPZ42 KNHC 072042 TCDEP2
Hurricane Olivia Discussion Number 29 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP172018 200 PM PDT Fri Sep 07 2018
Olivia continues to slowly weaken. Deep convection in the eyewall has been gradually decreasing in intensity and coverage, but it still completely surrounds the eye. A blend of the latest satellite intensity estimates supports lowering the initial wind speed to 95 kt. Olivia still has an annular appearance with the cloud pattern consisting of an inner core with little to no outer bands.
The hurricane is moving west-northwestward at 14 kt. There has been no change to the track forecast reasoning. Olivia is forecast to move west-northwestward for another day or so before turning to the west, or even west-southwest, as ridging builds to the north of the system. The NHC track forecast remains near the middle of the guidance envelope, and in best agreement with the consensus aids. Based on this forecast, Olivia is expected to cross into the central Pacific basin by late Saturday and approach the Hawaiian Islands in 4 to 5 days.
Although Olivia remains in low wind shear conditions, the cyclone is over fairly cool 25-26 deg C waters. These marginal SSTs and an increasingly drier and more stable air mass should cause the slow weakening trend to continue through the forecast period. However, as mentioned in previous discussions, annular hurricanes like Olivia often weaken slower than normal in these conditions, so it is possible Olivia won't weaken as fast as some of the guidance suggests.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 07/2100Z 20.5N 133.9W 95 KT 110 MPH 12H 08/0600Z 21.1N 135.9W 85 KT 100 MPH 24H 08/1800Z 21.6N 138.5W 75 KT 85 MPH 36H 09/0600Z 21.8N 141.2W 70 KT 80 MPH 48H 09/1800Z 22.0N 143.7W 70 KT 80 MPH 72H 10/1800Z 22.0N 148.0W 65 KT 75 MPH 96H 11/1800Z 21.6N 151.8W 60 KT 70 MPH 120H 12/1800Z 20.5N 156.0W 50 KT 60 MPH
$$ Forecaster Cangialosi
Source: Hurricane Olivia Forecast Discussion Number 29
David Cottle
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