504

ABNT20 KNHC 101745

TWOAT



Tropical Weather Outlook

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL

200 PM EDT Mon Sep 10 2018



For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:



The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane

Florence, located over the west-central Atlantic Ocean, on

Hurricane Helene, located over the eastern Atlantic, and on

Hurricane Isaac, located over the central tropical Atlantic.



Showers and thunderstorms over the northwestern Caribbean Sea and

western Cuba, associated with a surface trough, are showing some

signs of organization. This system is forecast to move slowly

northwestward near the Yucatan Peninsula on Tuesday with limited

development. Upper-level winds are forecast to become more

conducive for development on Wednesday when the system moves over

the southern Gulf of Mexico, and a tropical depression could form

on Thursday or Friday while the disturbance moves across the

western Gulf of Mexico. Interests across northeastern Mexico and

the coast of Texas and Louisiana should monitor the progress of

this system. Regardless of development, heavy rainfall and gusty

winds are likely over western Cuba through Tuesday.

* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.

* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent.



A non-tropical area of low pressure is forecast to form in the

northeastern Atlantic Ocean several hundred miles west-southwest of

the Azores in about two days. Environmental conditions are

conducive for some development, and a tropical or subtropical

depression could form by the end of the week while the low moves

erratically over the northeastern Atlantic Ocean.

* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.

* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent.



$$

Forecaster Blake




Source: Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook