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#471179
Mon 10 Sep 2018 08:31:PM
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Joined: Feb 2001
Posts: 381,903
Launch Director
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OP
Launch Director
Joined: Feb 2001
Posts: 381,903 |
Issued at 2100 UTC MON SEP 10 2018
889
FONT14 KNHC 102031
PWSAT4
HURRICANE ISAAC WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 13
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092018
2100 UTC MON SEP 10 2018
AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE ISAAC WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE
14.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 45.0 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR
65 KTS...75 MPH...120 KM/H.
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...
...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...
...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE
OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)
(CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
18Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.
- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -
FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION KT
PT GALLINAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8)
CURACAO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 6(10)
CURACAO 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2)
CURACAO 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1)
GRAND TURK 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3)
MONTEGO BAY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3)
LES CAYES 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3)
PORT-AU-PRINCE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 5( 7)
CAPE BEATA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 10(13)
CAPE BEATA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3)
PUERTO PLATA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5)
SANTO DOMINGO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6)
PONCE PR 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 4(10)
AGUADILLA PR 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 4( 9)
SAN JUAN PR 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 3( 9)
SAN JUAN PR 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3)
VIEQUES PR 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 14(16) 5(21)
VIEQUES PR 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 1( 5)
VIEQUES PR 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2)
SAINT THOMAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 14(16) 4(20)
SAINT THOMAS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 1( 5)
SAINT THOMAS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2)
SAINT CROIX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 17(20) 4(24)
SAINT CROIX 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 2( 8)
SAINT CROIX 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2)
SAINT MAARTEN 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 15(23) 1(24)
SAINT MAARTEN 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) 1( 8)
SAINT MAARTEN 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3)
ST KITTS-NEVIS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 14(14) 18(32) 2(34)
ST KITTS-NEVIS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 8(11) X(11)
ST KITTS-NEVIS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4)
BARBUDA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 17(17) 13(30) 1(31)
BARBUDA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 5(10) 1(11)
BARBUDA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4)
ANTIGUA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 21(21) 16(37) 1(38)
ANTIGUA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 8(14) X(14)
ANTIGUA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) 1( 5)
GUADELOUPE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 30(30) 17(47) 1(48)
GUADELOUPE 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 10(19) X(19)
GUADELOUPE 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 4( 7) X( 7)
AVES 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 11(11) 28(39) 3(42)
AVES 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 10(13) 2(15)
AVES 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 1( 5)
DOMINICA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 30(30) 20(50) X(50)
DOMINICA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 11(11) 11(22) X(22)
DOMINICA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 5( 9) X( 9)
MARTINIQUE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 30(30) 16(46) X(46)
MARTINIQUE 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 11(11) 10(21) X(21)
MARTINIQUE 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 4( 8) X( 8)
SAINT LUCIA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 24(24) 12(36) 1(37)
SAINT LUCIA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 7(15) X(15)
SAINT LUCIA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 3( 6) X( 6)
SAINT VINCENT 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 17(17) 10(27) 1(28)
SAINT VINCENT 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 6(11) X(11)
SAINT VINCENT 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4)
BARBADOS 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 21(23) 6(29) X(29)
BARBADOS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) 3(13) X(13)
BARBADOS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 1( 5) X( 5)
GRENADA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 8(15) 1(16)
GRENADA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) X( 5)
GRENADA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2)
TRINIDADTOBAGO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 4( 9) X( 9)
PORT OF SPAIN 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3)
JUANGRIEGO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) 1( 9)
$$
FORECASTER PASCH
Source: Hurricane Isaac Wind Speed Probabilities Number 13
David Cottle
UBB Owner & Administrator
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