501 
WTPZ43 KNHC 102034
TCDEP3

Tropical Storm Paul Discussion Number  10
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP182018
200 PM PDT Mon Sep 10 2018

Paul continues to have a rather ragged appearance in satellite
imagery. The low-level center is completely exposed to the east of a
limited area of deep convection. A pair of recent ASCAT passes
showed maximum winds of just below tropical-storm-force, so the
initial intensity has been held at 35 kt, assuming at least a
little undersampling may have occurred due to limitations of the
instrument. All of the intensity guidance continues to show
weakening, and Paul is forecast to become a tropical depression
later tonight, and a remnant low within the next few days. Given the
cold SSTs and dry air ahead of Paul, it is certainly possible that
Paul could become a remnant low or dissipate sooner than currently
forecast.

No major changes have been made to the previous official track
forecast. Paul is still moving toward the northwest with an initial
motion of 315/9 kt, but a turn toward the west-northwest should
begin shortly as Paul is steered increasingly by low-level
trade-wind flow. By the end of the forecast period, the remnant
circulation of Paul should slow down and turn westward. The new
official track forecast is basically a blend of the previous
forecast and HCCA.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  10/2100Z 21.3N 121.2W   35 KT  40 MPH
 12H  11/0600Z 21.8N 122.7W   30 KT  35 MPH
 24H  11/1800Z 22.2N 124.5W   30 KT  35 MPH
 36H  12/0600Z 22.6N 126.1W   30 KT  35 MPH
 48H  12/1800Z 22.9N 127.4W   30 KT  35 MPH
 72H  13/1800Z 23.5N 129.8W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  14/1800Z 23.5N 131.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H  15/1800Z 23.5N 132.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Zelinsky/Ramos