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#472573
Fri 14 Sep 2018 02:40:PM
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Joined: Feb 2001
Posts: 381,903
Launch Director
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OP
Launch Director
Joined: Feb 2001
Posts: 381,903 |
Issued at 1500 UTC FRI SEP 14 2018
140
FONT11 KNHC 141440
PWSAT1
HURRICANE FLORENCE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 61
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062018
1500 UTC FRI SEP 14 2018
AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE FLORENCE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE
34.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 78.0 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR
70 KTS...80 MPH...130 KM/H.
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...
...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...
...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE
OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)
(CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
12Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.
- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -
FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION KT
PAX RIVER NAS 34 3 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4)
WALLOPS CDA 34 3 X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
CHARLOTTESVIL 34 4 2( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7) 1( 8) X( 8)
RICHMOND VA 34 4 3( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8)
DANVILLE VA 34 10 6(16) 2(18) X(18) X(18) X(18) X(18)
NORFOLK NAS 34 5 3( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8)
NORFOLK VA 34 5 3( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8)
OCEANA NAS VA 34 5 3( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8)
ELIZABETH CTY 34 9 3(12) 1(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) X(13)
GREENSBORO NC 34 15 10(25) 2(27) 1(28) 1(29) X(29) X(29)
RALEIGH NC 34 36 8(44) 2(46) X(46) X(46) X(46) X(46)
ROCKY MT NC 34 51 2(53) 1(54) X(54) X(54) X(54) X(54)
CAPE HATTERAS 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99)
FAYETTEVILLE 34 84 3(87) X(87) 1(88) X(88) X(88) X(88)
FAYETTEVILLE 50 20 3(23) 1(24) X(24) X(24) X(24) X(24)
FAYETTEVILLE 64 1 X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1)
CHARLOTTE NC 34 16 17(33) 5(38) 4(42) X(42) X(42) X(42)
CHARLOTTE NC 50 1 1( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4)
CHERRY PT NC 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99)
CHERRY PT NC 50 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99)
NEW RIVER NC 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99)
NEW RIVER NC 50 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99)
MOREHEAD CITY 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99)
MOREHEAD CITY 50 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99)
SURF CITY NC 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99)
SURF CITY NC 50 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99)
SURF CITY NC 64 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99)
WILMINGTON NC 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99)
WILMINGTON NC 50 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99)
WILMINGTON NC 64 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99)
BALD HEAD ISL 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99)
BALD HEAD ISL 50 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99)
BALD HEAD ISL 64 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99)
FLORENCE SC 34 81 12(93) 2(95) X(95) X(95) X(95) X(95)
FLORENCE SC 50 32 32(64) 2(66) X(66) X(66) X(66) X(66)
FLORENCE SC 64 5 12(17) 1(18) X(18) X(18) X(18) X(18)
COLUMBIA SC 34 37 27(64) 9(73) 2(75) X(75) X(75) X(75)
COLUMBIA SC 50 2 9(11) 8(19) 1(20) X(20) X(20) X(20)
COLUMBIA SC 64 X 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
LITTLE RIVER 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99)
LITTLE RIVER 50 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99)
LITTLE RIVER 64 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99)
MYRTLE BEACH 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99)
MYRTLE BEACH 50 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99)
MYRTLE BEACH 64 86 X(86) X(86) X(86) X(86) X(86) X(86)
GEORGETOWN SC 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99)
GEORGETOWN SC 50 75 9(84) X(84) X(84) X(84) X(84) X(84)
GEORGETOWN SC 64 28 7(35) X(35) X(35) X(35) X(35) X(35)
CHARLESTON SC 34 74 14(88) 1(89) X(89) X(89) X(89) X(89)
CHARLESTON SC 50 8 19(27) 1(28) X(28) X(28) X(28) X(28)
CHARLESTON SC 64 1 3( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5)
BEAUFORT MCAS 34 27 25(52) 2(54) 1(55) X(55) X(55) X(55)
BEAUFORT MCAS 50 1 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4)
ATLANTA GA 34 3 3( 6) 1( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8)
AUGUSTA GA 34 9 19(28) 8(36) 3(39) X(39) X(39) X(39)
AUGUSTA GA 50 1 1( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4)
SAVANNAH GA 34 10 16(26) 3(29) X(29) X(29) X(29) X(29)
KINGS BAY GA 34 3 4( 7) 1( 8) 1( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9)
WAYCROSS GA 34 3 4( 7) 1( 8) 1( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9)
MAYPORT NS FL 34 3 4( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8)
JACKSONVILLE 34 3 3( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7)
GAINESVILLE FL 34 1 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4)
DAYTONA BEACH 34 1 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4)
COLUMBUS GA 34 X 4( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5)
$$
FORECASTER STEWART
Source: Hurricane Florence Wind Speed Probabilities Number 61
David Cottle
UBB Owner & Administrator
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