Issued at 2100 UTC THU OCT 04 2018

000
FOPZ11 KNHC 042032
PWSEP1
                                                                    
HURRICANE SERGIO WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER  22                
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP212018               
2100 UTC THU OCT 04 2018                                            
                                                                    
AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE SERGIO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE   
15.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 119.9 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 
115 KTS...130 MPH...215 KM/H.                                       
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   PACIFIC  DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME     
                                                                    
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS                 
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...                                  
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...                                  
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...                                  
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE               
    OP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)               
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        18Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT                       
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.             
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY              
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.                 
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -   
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
15N 120W       34 99   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)
15N 120W       50 99   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)
15N 120W       64 99   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)
 
20N 120W       34  2   2( 4)   2( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)   1( 7)
 
15N 125W       34  2   4( 6)  29(35)  38(73)  14(87)   3(90)   1(91)
15N 125W       50  X   X( X)   4( 4)  26(30)  19(49)   4(53)   1(54)
15N 125W       64  X   X( X)   X( X)  11(11)  16(27)   1(28)   X(28)
 
20N 125W       34  X   1( 1)   3( 4)   2( 6)   6(12)   6(18)  13(31)
20N 125W       50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   3( 5)
20N 125W       64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)
 
15N 130W       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   9(10)  13(23)   4(27)
15N 130W       50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   4( 5)   1( 6)
15N 130W       64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   X( 2)
 
20N 130W       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   6( 8)   8(16)
 
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI                                               

Source: Hurricane Sergio Wind Speed Probabilities Number 22