FZPN02 KWBC 042325

HSFEPI



HIGH SEAS FORECAST FOR METAREA XII

NWS OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER WASHINGTON DC

2345 UTC THU OCT 04 2018



CCODE/2:31:12:11:00/AOW+POR+AOE/NWS/CCODE

SUPERSEDED BY NEXT ISSUANCE IN 6 HOURS



SEAS GIVEN AS SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT...WHICH IS THE AVERAGE

HEIGHT OF THE HIGHEST 1/3 OF THE WAVES. INDIVIDUAL WAVES MAY

BE MORE THAN TWICE THE SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT.



SEE ANNOUNCEMENT OF PLANNED INMARSAT I-3 TO I-4 MIGRATION

IN 2018 AT OCEAN.WEATHER.GOV/GMDSS_NOTICE.PHP (LOWERCASE).



ONLY YOU KNOW THE WEATHER AT YOUR POSITION. REPORT IT TO THE

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE. EMAIL US AT

VOSOPS@NOAA.GOV(LOWERCASE).



PAN PAN



PACIFIC N OF 30N AND S OF 67N E OF A LINE FROM BERING STRAIT

TO 50N 160E



SYNOPSIS VALID 1800 UTC OCT 04.

24 HOUR FORECAST VALID 1800 UTC OCT 05.

48 HOUR FORECAST VALID 1800 UTC OCT 06.



.WARNINGS.



...HURRICANE WARNING...

.HURRICANE WALAKA NEAR 28.8N 166.3W 972 MB AT 2100 UTC OCT 04

MOVING N OR 355 DEG AT 19 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 80 KT

GUSTS 100 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS WITHIN 200 NM E

SEMICIRCLE AND 120 NM W SEMICIRCLE. SEAS 12 FT OR GREATER WITHIN

330 NM NE QUADRANT...400 NM SE QUADRANT...350 NM SW

QUADRANT...AND 325 NM NW QUADRANT WITH SEAS TO 44 FT.

.24 HOUR FORECAST TROPICAL STORM WALAKA NEAR 32.6N 166.6W.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT GUSTS 65 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE

WINDS WITHIN 150 NM E SEMICIRCLE AND 80 NM W SEMICIRCLE. SEAS 12

FT OR GREATER OVER FORECAST WATERS FROM 30N TO 41N BETWEEN 153W

AND 175W WITH SEAS TO 36 FT.

.48 HOUR FORECAST TROPICAL STORM WALAKA NEAR 40.1N 160.5W.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT GUSTS 50 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE

WINDS WITHIN 50 NM W SEMICIRCLE...140 NM NE QUADRANT AND 125 NM

SE QUADRANT. SEAS 12 FT OR GREATER OVER FORECAST WATERS FROM 30N

TO 42N BETWEEN 153W AND 167W WITH SEAS TO 29 FT.

.72 HOUR FORECAST POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE WALAKA NEAR 53.0N

149.0W. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT GUSTS 45 KT.



...GALE WARNING...

.LOW 59N149W 996 MB DRIFTING NE. WITHIN 120 NM NE OF A FRONT

FROM LOW CENTER TO 58N143W WINDS 25 TO 40 KT. SEAS 8 TO 13 FT.

ELSEWHERE OVER FORECAST WATERS WITHIN 360 NM NE AND 720 NM SE

QUADRANTS WINDS TO 25 KT. SEAS 8 TO 16 FT.

.24 HOUR FORECAST LOW DISSIPATED AND CONDITIONS DIMINISHED.



...GALE WARNING...

.LOW 60N170W 966 MB MOVING W 15 KT. WITHIN 300 NM N

SEMICIRCLE...AND 360 NM SE AND 600 NM SW QUADRANTS WINDS 25 TO

40 KT. SEAS 13 TO 26 FT. ELSEWHERE WITHIN 360 NM NE...780 NM SE

AND 720 NM SW QUADRANTS WINDS TO 25 KT. SEAS 10 TO 21

FT...EXCEPT IN N SEMICIRCLE 8 TO 16 FT.

.24 HOUR FORECAST LOW W OF AREA NEAR 60N176E 976 MB. OVER

FORECAST WATERS WITHIN 600 NM NE QUADRANT WINDS 20 TO 30 KT.

SEAS TO 11 FT.

.48 HOUR FORECAST LOW 55N171E 982 MB. WITHIN 1020 NM NE AND 540

NM SE AND 360 NM SW QUADRANTS WINDS 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS TO 12 FT.



...GALE WARNING...

.LOW 51N178E 987 MB MOVING NE 20 KT. WITHIN 480 NM SE AND 1080

NM SW QUADRANTS WINDS 25 TO 40 KT. SEAS 11 TO 22 FT. ELSEWHERE

WITHIN 720 NM SE AND 1200 NM SW QUADRANTS WINDS TO 25 KT. SEAS 8

TO 14 FT.

.24 HOUR FORECAST LOW 55N170W 987 MB. WITHIN 360 NM NE...660 NM

SE AND 540 NM SW QUADRANTS WINDS 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 9 TO 14 FT.

.48 HOUR FORECAST LOW AND CONDITIONS ABSORBED BY LOW 55N171E

DESCRIBED ABOVE.



...GALE WARNING...

.LOW 50N142W 1005 MB MOVING SE 20 KT. WITHIN 420 NM SE AND 960

NM SW QUADRANTS WINDS 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS TO 11 FT.

.24 HOUR FORECAST LOW 48N128W 1006 MB. WITHIN 180 NM N AND 360

NM S SEMICIRCLES WINDS 25 TO 40 KT. SEAS 8 TO 15 FT. ELSEWHERE

WITHIN 240 NM NW...480 NM SE AND 600 NM SW QUADRANTS WINDS TO 25

KT. SEAS TO 10 FT.

.48 HOUR FORECAST LOW DISSIPATED INLAND. FROM 40N TO 51N BETWEEN

123W AND 131W WINDS TO 25 KT. SEAS 8 TO 13 FT.



...GALE WARNING...

.24 HOUR FORECAST LINE TO EXTEND FROM 50N160E TO 42N179W. WITHIN

540 NM S OF THE LINE NW WINDS 25 TO 40 KT. SEAS 12 TO 22 FT.

ELSEWHERE S OF THE LINE W OF 174W NW WINDS TO 25 KT. SEAS 8 TO

17 FT.

.48 HOUR FORECAST LINE TO EXTEND FROM 50N160E TO 45N168E TO

42N178E TO 43N173W. WITHIN 420 NM S OF THE LINE W OF 178E NW TO

W WINDS 25 TO 35 KT. SEAS 10 TO 19 FT. ELSEWHERE S OF THE LINE W

OF 173W NW TO W WINDS TO 25 KT. SEAS 8 TO 16 FT.



...GALE WARNING...

.48 HOUR FORECAST NEW LOW 55N151W 1001 MB. WITHIN 420 NM E OF A

FRONT FROM 55N148W TO 43N160W WINDS 25 TO 40 KT. SEAS 10 TO 20

FT. ELSEWHERE WITHIN 300 NM N SEMICIRCLE...AND 900 NM SE AND 780

NM SW QUADRANTS WINDS TO 25 KT. SEAS 8 TO 18 FT.



.SYNOPSIS AND FORECAST.



.LOW 44N127W 1017 MB MOVING SE 10 KT. WITHIN 360 NM W SEMICIRCLE

WINDS 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS TO 10 FT.

.24 HOUR FORECAST LOW DISSIPATED AND CONDITIONS DIMINISHED.



.LOW 46N157W 1008 MB MOVING NE 20 KT. WITHIN 300 NM S SEMICIRCLE

WINDS TO 25 KT. SEAS 8 TO 16 FT.

.24 HOUR FORECAST LOW 51N149W 1014 MB. WITHIN 240 NM S

SEMICIRCLE WINDS TO 25 KT. SEAS 10 TO 14 FT.

.48 HOUR FORECAST LOW DISSIPATED AND CONDITIONS DESCRIBED WITH

LOW 55N151W ABOVE.



.EXCEPT AS NOTED IN WARNINGS SECTION ABOVE FROM 30N TO 50N

BETWEEN 156W AND 171E WINDS 20 TO 33 KT. SEAS 8 TO 17 FT.

.24 HOUR FORECAST EXCEPT AS NOTED WARNINGS SECTION ABOVE FROM

40N TO 56N BETWEEN 136W AND 156W...AND FROM 30N TO 42N BETWEEN

147W AND 175W WINDS 20 TO 33 KT. SEAS 8 TO 16 FT.

.48 HOUR FORECAST EXCEPT AS NOTED IN WARNING SECTION ABOVE FROM

30N TO 53N BETWEEN 130W AND 172W WINDS 20 TO 33 KT. SEAS 8 TO 16

FT.



.24 HOUR FORECAST LOW 56N178E 977 MB. WITHIN 180 NM NW...300 NM

NE...840 NM SE AND 600 NM SW QUADRANTS WINDS 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 8

TO 14 FT.

.48 HOUR FORECAST LOW MOVED W OF AREA.



.48 HOUR FORECAST FROM 30N TO 40N BETWEEN 118W AND 131W WINDS 20

TO 30 KT. SEAS 8 TO 13 FT.



.DENSE FOG. VSBY OCCASIONALLY LESS THAN 1 NM FROM 42N TO 45N

BETWEEN 150W AND 156W.

.24 HOUR FORECAST DENSE FOG FROM 42N TO 47N BETWEEN 147W AND

157W AND FROM 37N TO 46N BETWEEN 157W AND 166W.

.48 HOUR FORECAST DENSE FOG FROM 46N TO 55N BETWEEN 139W AND

151W AND FROM 42N TO 49N BETWEEN 151W AND 160W.



.HIGH 39N140W 1026 MB DRIFTING S.

.24 HOUR FORECAST HIGH 37N140W 1029 MB.

.48 HOUR FORECAST HIGH 41N141W 1032 MB.



.FORECASTER HOLLEY. OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER.



NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL



E PACIFIC FROM THE EQUATOR TO 30N E OF 140W AND 03.4S TO THE

EQUATOR E OF 120W



SYNOPSIS VALID 1800 UTC THU OCT 04.

24 HOUR FORECAST VALID 1800 UTC FRI OCT 05.

48 HOUR FORECAST VALID 1800 UTC SAT OCT 06.



.WARNINGS.



...HURRICANE WARNING...

.HURRICANE SERGIO NEAR 15.5N 119.9W 947 MB AT 2100 UTC OCT 04

MOVING NW OR 320 DEG AT 8 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 115 KT

GUSTS 140 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS WITHIN 130 NM S

SEMICIRCLE...120 NM NE QUADRANT AND 100 NM NW QUADRANT. SEAS 12

FT OR GREATER WITHIN 330 NM W SEMICIRCLE...420 NM NE QUADRANT

AND 360 NM SE QUADRANT WITH SEAS TO 43 FT. ELSEWHERE WITHIN 210

NM NE...330 NM SE...450 NM SW...AND 270 NM NW QUADRANTS WINDS 20

TO 33 KT. SEAS 10 TO 20 FT. REMAINDER OF AREA FROM 06.5N TO 28N

BETWEEN 105W AND 130W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS TO 11 FT IN

MIXED SWELL.

.24 HOUR FORECAST HURRICANE SERGIO NEAR 16.1N 121.9W. MAXIMUM

SUSTAINED WINDS 105 KT GUSTS 130 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS

WITHIN 130 NM N SEMICIRCLE AND 110 NM S SEMICIRCLE. SEAS 12 FT

OR GREATER WITHIN 420 NM NE AND 360 NM SW SEMICIRCLES WITH SEAS

TO 44 FT. ELSEWHERE WITHIN 360 NM NW AND 270 NM SE SEMICIRCLES

WINDS 20 TO 33 KT. SEAS 12 TO 20 FT. REMAINDER OF AREA N OF 07N

W OF 108W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS TO 11 FT IN MIXED SWELL.

.48 HOUR FORECAST HURRICANE SERGIO NEAR 15.7N 124.5W. MAXIMUM

SUSTAINED WINDS 85 KT GUSTS 105 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS

WITHIN 150 NM N SEMICIRCLE AND 120 NM S SEMICIRCLE. SEAS 12 FT

OR GREATER WITHIN 500 NM N AND 420 N S SEMICIRCLES WITH SEAS TO

42 FT. ELSEWHERE WITHIN 400 NM NW AND 330 NM SE SEMICIRCLES

WINDS 20 TO 33 KT. SEAS 12 TO 20 FT. REMAINDER OF AREA N OF 03N

W OF 110W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS TO 11 FT IN MIXED SWELL.

.72 HOUR FORECAST HURRICANE SERGIO NEAR 15.7N 126.6W. MAXIMUM

SUSTAINED WINDS 80 KT GUSTS 100 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...USE FOR GUIDANCE ONLY...ERRORS MAY BE LARGE.

.96 HOUR FORECAST HURRICANE SERGIO NEAR 16.8N 127.4W. MAXIMUM

SUSTAINED WINDS 70 KT GUSTS 85 KT.

.120 HOUR FORECAST TROPICAL STORM SERGIO NEAR 18.3N 126.2W.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 60 KT GUSTS 75 KT.



FORECAST WINDS IN AND NEAR ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES SHOULD BE

USED WITH CAUTION DUE TO UNCERTAINTY IN FORECAST TRACK...SIZE

AND INTENSITY.



.SYNOPSIS AND FORECAST.



.N OF 14N BETWEEN 94.5W AND 95.5W...INCLUDING GULF OF

TEHUANTEPEC...N WINDS 20 TO 25 KT. SEAS TO 9 FT.

.24 HOUR FORECAST LITTLE CHANGE.

.48 HOUR FORECAST GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS

LESS THAN 8 FT.



.NW OF LINE FROM 30N128W TO 23N131W TO 20N140W WINDS 20 KT OR

LESS. SEAS 8 TO 10 FT IN NW SWELL.

.24 HOUR FORECAST NW SWELL CONDITIONS TO MERGE WITH SWELL FROM

HURRICANE SERGIO DESCRIBED ABOVE.



.FROM 03N TO 08N BETWEEN 84W AND 93W S TO SW WINDS 20 TO 25 KT.

SEAS TO 8 FT IN MIXED SW SWELL.

.24 HOUR FORECAST FROM 07N TO 10.5N BETWEEN 84.5W AND 94W SW

WINDS 20 TO 25 KT. SEAS 8 TO 10 FT. ELSEWHERE FROM 05N TO 11N

BETWEEN 90W AND 103W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS TO 9 FT IN MIXED

SW SWELL.

.48 HOUR FORECAST FROM 07N TO 11N BETWEEN 85W AND 94W S TO SW

WINDS 20 TO 25 KT. SEAS 8 TO 10 FT. ELSEWHERE FROM 05N TO 11N

BETWEEN 90W AND 104W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS TO 9 FT IN MIXED

SW SWELL.



.REMAINDER OF AREA WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS LESS THAN 8 FT.



CONVECTION VALID AT 2100 UTC THU OCT 4...



HURRICANE SERGIO...NUMEROUS STRONG WITHIN 90 NM E AND 120 NM W

SEMICIRCLES. BANDS OF SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG ELSEWHERE

WITHIN 120 NM NW AND 180 NM SE SEMICIRCLES.



.INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM LOW PRES 1007 MB ALONG NE COAST OF

HONDURAS TO DEVELOPING LOW PRES 1009 MB NEAR 10.5N87W TO

14N104W...THEN RESUMES SW OF SERGIO FROM 10N123W TO 12N130W TO

LOW PRES 1010 MB NEAR 10N138W TO BEYOND 09N140W. SCATTERED

STRONG CONVECTION FROM 06N TO 12N BETWEEN 82W AND 91W. SCATTERED

MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 150 NM N AND 210 NM S OF

TROUGH BETWEEN 94W AND 98W...AND FROM 08N TO 12.5N BETWEEN 130W

AND 141W.



.FORECASTER STRIPLING. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.



NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI

NORTH PACIFIC EQUATOR TO 30N BETWEEN 140W AND 160E



SYNOPSIS VALID 1800 UTC OCT 04 2018.

24 HOUR FORECAST VALID 1800 UTC OCT 05 2018.

48 HOUR FORECAST VALID 1800 UTC OCT 06 2018.



.WARNINGS.



...HURRICANE WARNING...



.HURRICANE WALAKA 27.9N 166.1W 972 MB MOVING N 20 KT. MAXIMUM

SUSTAINED WINDS 80 KT GUSTS 100 KT. WINDS 34 KT OR GREATER

WITHIN 200 NM E SEMICIRCLE AND 120 NM W SEMICIRCLE. WINDS 20 TO

33 KT ELSEWHERE N OF LINE 30N158W 24N163W 30N172W. SEAS 12 FT OR

HIGHER WITHIN 400 NM SE QUADRANT AND 350 NM ELSEWHERE...SEAS 8

TO 12 FT ELSEWHERE NW OF LINE 30N155W 12N170W 15N160W. ISOLATED

MODERATE TSTMS N OF 27N BETWEEN 164W AND 168W.

.24 HOUR FORECAST TROPICAL STORM WALAKA MOVED N OF AREA. WINDS

20 TO 30 KT N OF LINE 30N157W 25N162W 29N164W 18N168W 30N172W.

SEE SEAS BELOW.

.48 HOUR FORECAST TROPICAL STORM WALAKA MOVED FAR N OF AREA. SEE

WINDS AND SEAS BELOW.



SEE CPHC ADVISORIES.



FORECAST WINDS NEAR TROPICAL CYCLONES SHOULD BE USED WITH

CAUTION DUE TO FORECAST UNCERTAINTY.



.SYNOPSIS AND FORECAST.



.TROUGH FROM TROPICAL STORM WALAKA TO 15N175W 09N160W NEARLY

STATIONARY. SEE WINDS AND SEAS WITH WALAKA.

.24 HOUR FORECAST TROUGH 30N169W 15N175W 09N160E. SEE WINDS AND

SEAS WITH WALAKA.

.48 HOUR FORECAST TROUGH 30N165W 14N174W 10N160E.



.TROUGH 10N140W 05N155. SCATTERED STRONG TSTMS WITHIN 90 NM OF

TROUGH.

.24 HOUR FORECAST TROUGH 10N140W 07N161W.

.48 HOUR FORECAST LITTLE CHANGE.



.24 HOUR FORECAST NEW FRONT 30N178W 28N167E 29N160E. N TO NE

WINDS 20 TO 25 KT N OF FRONT.

.48 HOUR FORECAST FRONT 30N171W 25N178E 26N162E. NE WINDS 20 TO

25 KT WITHIN 120 NM OF FRONT W OF 180W.



.RIDGE 30N150W 15N160W 15N175W NEARLY STATIONARY E OF

160W...MOVING SE 10 KT W OF 160W.



.NE TO E WINDS 20 TO 25 KT FROM 28N TO 20N E OF 150W AND W OF

LINE 15N160E 07N173E 08N160E.

.24 HOUR FORECAST E WINDS 20 TO 25 KT N OF 18N E OF 150W.

.48 HOUR FORECAST E TO SE WINDS 20 TO 25 KT NE OF LINE 10N140W

30N160W.



.SEAS 8 TO 9 FT E OF LINE 20N140W 22N150W 30N144W.

.24 HOUR FORECAST SEAS 8 TO 12 FT NE OF LINE 15N140W 25N155W

25N180W 30N180W. SEAS 8 FT N OF 28N W OF 173E AND FROM 16N TO

08N W OF 163E.

.48 HOUR FORECAST SEAS 8 TO 10 FT NE OF LINE 10N140W 30N170W AND

N OF 15N W OF 175E.



.REMAINDER OF AREA WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS LESS THAN 8 FT.



.SCATTERED MODERATE TSTMS BOUNDED BY 09N160E 15N180W 10N170W

08N175W 09N160E.



$$

.HONOLULU FORECASTER.


Source: OPC East and Central N Pacific High Seas Forecast