277

ABPZ20 KNHC 170522

TWOEP



Tropical Weather Outlook

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL

1100 PM PDT Fri Aug 16 2019



For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:



An area of low pressure located a couple of hundred miles south of

the coast of Guatemala is producing some disorganized showers and

thunderstorms. Environmental conditions are expected to be

conducive for development, and a tropical depression is likely to

form early next week while the low moves west-northwestward at about

10 mph parallel to the coast of Mexico. Regardless of development,

moisture associated with the low is forecast to produce heavy

rainfall and possible flash flooding across portions of Central

America and southeastern Mexico during the next few days.

* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.

* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.



A tropical wave continues to produce disorganized showers and

thunderstorms centered about 1250 miles west-southwest of the

southern tip of the Baja California peninsula. Gradual development

of this system is possible during the next few days while it moves

slowly westward across the southwestern portion of the eastern

Pacific.

* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.

* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.



$$

Forecaster Blake




Source: Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook