Issued at 0900 UTC FRI AUG 23 2019

000
FOPZ15 KNHC 230841
PWSEP5
                                                                    
TROPICAL STORM IVO WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER   8              
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP102019               
0900 UTC FRI AUG 23 2019                                            
                                                                    
AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM IVO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 
17.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 114.5 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 
50 KTS...60 MPH...95 KM/H.                                          
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   PACIFIC  DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME     
                                                                    
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS                 
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...                                  
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...                                  
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...                                  
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE               
    OP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)               
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        06Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT                       
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.             
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY              
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.                 
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -   
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
IS GUADALUPE   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
ISLA CLARION   34 98   1(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)
ISLA CLARION   50 19   2(21)   X(21)   X(21)   X(21)   X(21)   X(21)
ISLA CLARION   64  1   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)
 
20N 115W       34 26  41(67)   1(68)   X(68)   X(68)   X(68)   X(68)
20N 115W       50  X  10(10)   X(10)   X(10)   X(10)   X(10)   X(10)
 
25N 115W       34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
25N 120W       34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   6( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)
 
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER AVILA                                                    

Source: Tropical Storm Ivo Wind Speed Probabilities Number 8