000
WTPZ35 KNHC 192331
TCPEP5

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Lorena Intermediate Advisory Number 10A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP152019
600 PM MDT Thu Sep 19 2019

...CENTER OF LORENA NOW MOVING AWAY FROM THE ISLAS MARIAS...


SUMMARY OF 600 PM MDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...21.9N 107.3W
ABOUT 185 MI...300 KM ESE OF CABO SAN LUCAS MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...994 MB...29.36 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Baja California peninsula from La Paz to Santa Fe

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* East coast of the Baja California peninsula north of La Paz to
San Evaristo
* West coast of the Baja California peninsula north of Santa Fe to
Puerto Cortes

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Manzanillo to Punta Mita

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the next 24
hours.  Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed
to completion.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected within the warning area.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area.  A watch is typically issued 48 hours
before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force
winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.

Interests elsewhere in Baja California Sur should monitor the
progress of Lorena.  Additional watches or warnings may be required
for portions of this area later tonight or Friday morning.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 600 PM MDT (0000 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Lorena was
located near latitude 21.9 North, longitude 107.3 West. Lorena is
moving toward the northwest near 12 mph (19 km/h).  A turn to the
west-northwest is expected tonight, and a west-northwestward motion
at a slower forward speed should continue through Saturday.  On the
forecast track, the center of Lorena will move over the Pacific
waters to the southeast of the Baja California peninsula tonight,
pass near or over the southern portion of the Baja California
peninsula on Friday, and move along the west coast of the peninsula
Friday night and Saturday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 70 mph (110 km/h) with higher
gusts.  Strengthening is forecast during the next day or so, and
Lorena is forecast to re-gain hurricane strength as it approaches
the Baja California peninsula.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 994 mb (29.36 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Lorena can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP5 and WMO header WTPZ45 KNHC
and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDEP5.shtml.

WIND:  Tropical storm conditions will continue within portions of
the tropical storm warning area in southwestern Mexico for a few
more hours.  Hurricane conditions are expected within the hurricane
warning area in the southern Baja California peninsula on Friday,
with tropical storm conditions beginning late tonight.  Hurricane
and tropical storm conditions are possible within the hurricane
watch area by Saturday.

RAINFALL:  Lorena is expected to produce the following rainfall
amounts through the weekend:

Coastal sections of the Mexican states of Michoacan, Colima and
Jalisco: 5 to 10 inches with maximum amounts of 15 inches. This
rainfall may produce life-threatening flash floods and mudslides.

Far southern Baja California Sur: 2 to 4 inches with maximum
amounts around 6 inches.

SURF:  Swells generated by Lorena will affect portions of the
southwestern coast of Mexico and the southern Baja California
peninsula during the next few days.  These swells are likely to
cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please
consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 900 PM MDT.

$$
Forecaster Beven