000

ABPZ20 KNHC 151731

TWOEP



Tropical Weather Outlook

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL

1100 AM PDT Tue Oct 15 2019



For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:



Showers and thunderstorms have become more concentrated during the

past several hours near an elongated area of low pressure located

about 100 miles south-southwest of the coast of Guatemala.

Environmental conditions are conducive for development of this

system, and a tropical depression or tropical storm is expected to

form tonight or on Wednesday while the system moves

west-northwestward at about 10 mph, toward the coast of southeastern

Mexico. Regardless of development, heavy rainfall currently

occurring across Costa Rica, Nicaragua, Honduras and El Salvador is

forecast to spread westward over Guatemala tonight, and across

southern Mexico on Wednesday. These rains could cause flooding and

mudslides, especially in mountainous areas. Interests in

southeastern Mexico should monitor the progress of this system.

* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent.

* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.



A large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms centered

about 1200 miles southwest of the southern tip of the Baja

California peninsula is associated with a surface trough of low

pressure. Some development of this system is possible during the

next few days while the system moves little.

* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.

* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.



$$

Forecaster Roberts


Source: Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook