SPC MD 2054
MD 2054 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN IDAHO INTO SOUTHWESTERN MONTANA

Mesoscale Discussion 2054
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0326 PM CDT Wed Sep 11 2024

Areas affected...Portions of southern Idaho into southwestern
Montana

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

Valid 112026Z - 112300Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

SUMMARY...Thunderstorms are expected to increase in coverage and
intensity through the afternoon posing a risk of severe hail and
wind.  The severe threat is expected to be too isolated and marginal
to warrant a severe thunderstorm watch.

DISCUSSION...A potent shortwave trough evident in water vapor
imagery this afternoon is nosing into southwestern Idaho.  As a
result of the corresponding focused ascent, thunderstorms will
continue to increase in coverage and intensity across the area
through the afternoon and evening hours.  Despite strong forcing for
ascent and sufficient shear for supercells and organized storm
modes, the moisture and instability are rather modest. 
Consequently, storms will be relatively high based, which will favor
strong evaporative cooling and isolated severe gusts through the
evening hours.

Additionally, strong outflow winds from these thunderstorms will
likely impact existing fires across the region, which may hinder
fire suppression/containment efforts.

..Jirak/Guyer.. 09/11/2024

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...TFX...PIH...MSO...BOI...LKN...

LAT...LON   43431733 44231670 45571521 46281430 46781351 46841240
            46421176 45791135 44651137 43871199 43161318 42471464
            42131610 41951702 42401729 43431733 

Read more
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md2054.html