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Joined: Feb 2001
Posts: 381,903
Launch Director
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OP
Launch Director
Joined: Feb 2001
Posts: 381,903 |
SPC MD 2120MD 2120 CONCERNING TORNADO WATCH 684... FOR FROM JACKSONVILLE NORTHWARD ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AND THE CAROLINAS
Mesoscale Discussion 2120 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0539 PM CDT Thu Sep 26 2024
Areas affected...from Jacksonville northward across much of southeast Georgia and the Carolinas
Concerning...Tornado Watch 684...
Valid 262239Z - 270315Z
The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 684 continues.
SUMMARY...The risk of tornadoes is likely to increase/spread northward through tonight across southeast Georgia, eastern South Carolina and southeast North Carolina. An isolated strong tornado cannot be ruled out.
DISCUSSION...Surface analysis shows a warm front/boundary from southern GA to just off the SC Coast this evening. South of this boundary, deeper tropical moisture exists with upper 70s F to near 80 F dewpoints, and as such, MLCAPE near the coast is already near 1000 J/kg, with larger values over 1500 J/kg off the eastern FL Peninsula.
As Hurricane Helene continues northward this evening, wind fields across the region will strengthen, with 850 mb winds increasing dramatically after about 03Z. As such, the surface warm front will move ashore into SC, with further destabilization over parts of southeast GA as well.
Effective SRH of 300-500 m2/s2 coincident with the instability axis will be common this evening, with even stronger shear but lower instability along the western fringe of the warm sector.
An initial band of convection currently extends into the Jacksonville FL area, and embedded cells could rotate an produce a brief tornado. Additional bands of storms are likely to develop this evening and tonight as the warm advection processes increase. Given such strong shear, an isolated strong tornado cannot be ruled out late.
..Jewell.. 09/26/2024
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...MHX...RAH...ILM...CHS...CAE...JAX...FFC...
LAT...LON 31907960 31088013 30598032 30148070 30028098 30028114 30378167 30598227 30838293 31168292 31708266 32898197 33368153 33958106 34827946 34867847 34767791 34337752 34057749 33697764 32917843 32497896 31907960
Read morehttps://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md2120.html
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