Day 2 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0100 AM CDT Sat May 09 2026

Valid 101200Z - 111200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
WEST-CENTRAL AND NORTH-CENTRAL TEXAS...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms capable of producing large hail and damaging wind gust
appear likely Sunday afternoon and evening from parts of west and
central Texas east-northeastward into the Ark-La-Tex and lower
Mississippi Valley. Hailstones greater than 2 inches in diameter and
severe wind gusts above 70 mph will be possible across parts of
west-central, central and north Texas.

...Southern Plains/Ark-La-Tex/Lower Mississippi Valley...
A positively-tilted mid-level shortwave trough will move
southeastward into the southern Plains on Sunday. At the surface, a
cold front will advance southward across an area from west and north
Texas into the Ark-La-Tex. To the south of the front, surface
dewpoints will be mostly in the 65 to 70 F range, which will
contribute to moderate destabilization by afternoon. Surface-based
convective initiation is expected around midday, as surface warming
takes place and low-level convergence increases near the front.
Scattered to numerous thunderstorms appear likely to develop, with a
large complex of storms moving southeastward across north and
central Texas during the afternoon.

South of the front over much of the southern Plains, model forecasts
increase MLCAPE into the 2000 to 3000 J/kg range by afternoon. Also,
850-500 mb lapse rates are forecast to be between 7.5 and 8 C/km
ahead of the front. This, combined with 0-6 km shear in the 35 to 40
knot range, will be favorable for semi-discrete supercells with
large hail. Hailstones greater than 2 inches in diameter will be
possible in areas that destabilize the most, particularly across
parts of west-central and north-central Texas. In addition, 0-3 km
lapse rates are forecast to become very steep, exceeding 9 C/km in
some areas. As cells increase in coverage and merge during the mid
to late afternoon, MCS development will be possible. The very steep
low-level lapse rates will support a wind-damage threat. If a cold
pool can organize, then the wind-damage threat would likely increase
during the late afternoon, and wind gusts above 70 mph would be
possible.

Further east-northeast into the Ark-La-Tex and lower Mississippi
Valley, convective coverage is expected to be a bit more widely
spaced. The environment will be characterized by moderate deep-layer
shear and sufficient instability for a severe threat. Damaging wind
gusts and isolated large hail will be the primary threats.

...Southeast...
A very moist airmass will be in place on Sunday from the central
Gulf Coast states eastward to the Atlantic. Surface dewpoints will
be in the upper 60s and lower 70s F, with moderate instability
developing by afternoon. Although large-scale ascent will be
limited, convergence boundaries appear likely to develop inland from
the coastal areas during the afternoon. Storms that can form along
these favored zones may have potential for isolated severe wind
gusts, mainly due to precipitation loading.

..Broyles.. 05/09/2026