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#715930
Sat 16 Mar 2024 04:24:PM
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Joined: Feb 2001
Posts: 381,903
Launch Director
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OP
Launch Director
Joined: Feb 2001
Posts: 381,903 |
SPC Mar 16, 2024 1630 UTC Day 1 Convective OutlookSPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1121 AM CDT Sat Mar 16 2024
Valid 161630Z - 171200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL TEXAS...
...SUMMARY... Isolated severe storms with large hail and damaging winds are forecast across portions of south central/southeast Texas late today into tonight.
...TX... Morning radar and satellite imagery show widespread cloud cover and scattered convection across much of central TX, in a broad/weak low and mid level warm advection regime. This trend will continue through much of the day, limiting heating and overall destabilization. While most of the daytime activity will be non-severe, an occasional strong storm may develop in the MRGL risk area capable of hail.
By late afternoon, a shortwave trough now over Baja CA will approach the mountains of northern Mexico, aiding in the development of strong to severe storms. This activity will spread across the Rio Grande and into TX during the evening, while increasing low-level warm advection help to initiate storms ahead of the main activity. All of these storms will move across the SLGT risk area during the night. While low-level destabilization will be limited, steep mid-level lapse rates and favorable shear profiles will promote supercell and bowing structures capable of very large hail and damaging wind gusts. Storms may persist through the pre-dawn hours into southwest LA with a continued MRGL risk of hail or gusty winds.
..Hart/Weinman.. 03/16/2024
Read morehttps://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk_1630.html
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Entire Thread
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SPC Mar 16, 2024 1630 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
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