Mesoscale Discussion 2113
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1153 AM CDT Mon Aug 24 2026

Areas affected...southeast Alabama and the central Florida Panhandle
into the lower Savannah River Valley

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

Valid 241653Z - 241930Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Isolated occurrences of damaging wind gusts are possible
with thunderstorms developing across the region this afternoon. A
watch is unlikely due to the expected limited coverage of the
threat.

DISCUSSION...Visible satellite and lightning data indicate a
gradually deepening cumulus field and incipient thunderstorm
development ahead of a quasi-stationary boundary draped across the
region and along evolving sea breeze boundaries. The 12Z observed
soundings across the region sampled a very moist boundary layer,
contributing to a strongly unstable air mass for elevated parcels.
Since those observations, surface temperatures have warmed into the
lower 90s with steepening low-level lapse rates and MLCAPE of
2000-3000 J/kg.

Generally weak vertical shear and the absence of appreciable
large-scale forcing for ascent are expected to limit the potential
for an organized thunderstorm complex to evolve. However, the degree
of instability will support vigorous pulse storms capable of locally
damaging wind gusts through the remainder of the afternoon.

..Mead/Smith.. 08/24/2026

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...CHS...JAX...TAE...

LAT...LON   30868588 31358570 31528442 31448288 31888186 32778085
            32708046 32388034 31338103 30408133 29888190 29848296
            29838396 29938516 30248568 30868588 

MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH

Mesoscale Discussion 2114
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1252 PM CDT Mon Aug 24 2026

Areas affected...northern Maine

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

Valid 241752Z - 242015Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Isolated severe storms capable of damaging wind gusts and
marginally severe hail appear possible this afternoon into evening.
A watch is currently not expected.

DISCUSSION...Ahead of a vigorous vorticity maximum centered over the
Champlain Valley, visible satellite imagery indicates deepening
cumulus across the discussion area amidst a warming and
destabilizing air mass with around 500 J/kg of MLCAPE. Eventual
thunderstorm development is expected later this afternoon as height
falls/cooling aloft overspread the warming boundary layer,
contributing to further air mass destabilization. The kinematic
environment features strong mid/upper-level winds, resulting in
long, straight hodographs supportive of splitting supercells with an
associated hail risk. Isolated damaging wind gusts also appear
possible owing to the steepening low-level lapse rates across the
region, which will enhance evaporative cooling in the sub-cloud
layer.

..Mead/Smith.. 08/24/2026

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...CAR...GYX...

LAT...LON   45467106 47446963 47736870 47486768 46866764 45666891
            44967003 44617055 44707100 45467106 

MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN

STATUS FOR WATCH 0622 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 622
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1235 PM CDT Mon Aug 24 2026

The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a

* Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of 
  Southwest and Southern Alabama
  Western Florida Panhandle
  Southeast Louisiana
  Southeast Mississippi
  Coastal Waters

* Effective this Monday afternoon and evening from 1235 PM until
  700 PM CDT.

* Primary threats include...
  Scattered damaging wind gusts to 65 mph possible

SUMMARY...Small clusters of strong to severe thunderstorms will
continue to develop and intensify this afternoon across the Watch
area and gradually move towards the coast.  The stronger
thunderstorms will pose a risk for wet microbursts capable of 55 to
65 mph gusts and scattered wind damage.

The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 60
statute miles north and south of a line from 25 miles west northwest
of New Orleans LA to 35 miles north northeast of Crestview FL. For a
complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline
update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU2).

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are
favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area.
Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening
weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible
warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce
tornadoes.

&&

AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to
0.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 55 knots. A
few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector
34015.

...Smith

Day 2 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1209 PM CDT Mon Aug 24 2026

Valid 251200Z - 261200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE CENTRAL PLAINS...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe storms are likely over the central Plains tomorrow
(Tuesday), with more isolated severe storms possible over the Upper
Mississippi Valley and Gulf coastline. Over all areas, severe gusts
are the main threat, though a couple instances of hail or a tornado
are also possible over the Upper Mississippi Valley.

...Synopsis...
Upper ridging will dominate most of the CONUS as an upper trough
over the Northeast ejects into the Atlantic tomorrow (Tuesday).
Multiple embedded impulses are expected to pivot around the upper
ridge over the central U.S., encouraging surface troughing over the
Plains states. Low-level moisture advection beneath seasonably cool
temperatures aloft, along with modest forcing for ascent with the
surface trough, will encourage strong to severe thunderstorm
development across portions of the High Plains to the Upper MS
Valley.

...Portions of the central Plains...
Upslope flow of low-level moisture toward the higher
terrain/immediate lee of the Rockies will encourage thunderstorm
development tomorrow afternoon across the central High Plains. A
deep and relatively dry boundary layer will develop through the day,
with high-based pulse cellular and multicellular storms expected
(given relatively poor tropospheric vertical shear). Lapse rates
from the surface to 500 mb will reach the 8-9 C/km range, with
robust updrafts likely. These storms will quickly become outflow
dominant, leading to the cold-pool merger and the subsequent
organization of one or more loosely organized MCSs. Given steep
boundary layer lapse rates, efficient evaporative cooling will
promote the potential of severe gusts with the more organized storm
clusters, from far southern NE to the TX Panhandle. 

...Parts of the Upper MS Valley...
By late afternoon, thunderstorms are poised to develop immediately
ahead of a surface trough as a 500 mb impulse and associated wind
maximum overspreads the Upper MS Valley. Surface dewpoints should
reach the low to mid 60s F, but will be overspread by modest
mid-level lapse rates (i.e. 6-7 C/km), yielding 2000-3000 J/kg
MLCAPE. Forecast hodographs are elongated, with some low-level
curvature noted. Supercells are expected to be the main storm mode,
accompanied by a sparse risk of all severe convective hazards. 

...Eastern parts of the Gulf Coast...
Pulse cellular storms will develop along the Gulf Coast again
tomorrow, where mid 70s F surface dewpoints will yield enough
buoyancy to support strong thunderstorms. MLCAPE will likely exceed
2000 J/kg over several locales, with PWATS well over 2 inches
expected. As such, water-loaded downdrafts will promote wet
microbursts capable of producing wind damage.

..Squitieri.. 08/24/2026

Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1131 AM CDT Mon Aug 24 2026

Valid 241700Z - 251200Z

A passing mid-level wave will induce periods of locally elevated
fire weather conditions across portions of the Klamath River Basin
today. RH values may decline to less than 15% with wind gusts over
20 mph in terrain favored areas; however, spatial extent and
duration of these conditions will be limited, precluding the
introduction of highlights. 

Based on the latest guidance and observations, only minor
adjustments were made to the Isolated Dry Thunderstorm risk area in
the northern Great Basin and Elevated highlights in the southern
Plains. Please see the previous discussion for more details.

..Elizalde-Garcia.. 08/24/2026

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0157 AM CDT Mon Aug 24 2026/

...Synopsis...
A subtle/low-amplitude midlevel wave will move northeastward across
parts of the northern Great Basin today. Farther south, a separate
shortwave trough will track southeastward across the
central/southern Plains -- along the northeastern periphery of an
expansive upper ridge centered on the southern Rockies. In response
to this feature, a surface low will evolve slowly eastward across
parts of OK.

...Dry Thunderstorms - Northern Great Basin...
Diurnal heating/boundary-layer mixing beneath a well-established
midlevel moisture plume will contribute to weak surface-based
destabilization across parts of the northern Great Basin today. As
large-scale forcing for ascent accompanying the midlevel wave
overspreads this instability, isolated high-based thunderstorms will
track northeastward across the area. The deeply mixed boundary layer
(inverted-V profiles) and 25-30 mph storm motions will favor dry
thunderstorms capable of lightning-induced ignitions -- given
receptive fuels. 

...Southern Plains...
Along/behind the evolving surface low, a dry air mass (15-20 percent
RH) will develop amid 15-20 mph sustained west-southwesterly surface
winds. These dry/breezy conditions atop increasingly dry fuels
(95th+ percentile ERCs) will yield elevated fire-weather conditions
during the late morning and afternoon.

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...

Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1122 AM CDT Mon Aug 24 2026

Valid 241630Z - 251200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE NORTHERN PLAINS/UPPER MIDWEST...CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY/CENTRAL GULF COAST...AND COASTAL CAROLINAS...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms capable of producing large hail and severe wind
gusts will be possible this afternoon and evening across parts of
the Upper Midwest as well as the central High Plains.  Other severe
thunderstorms with mainly a damaging wind threat are possible across
the central Gulf Coast and coastal Carolinas.

...Central Gulf Coast...
Satellite/radar mosaic late this morning shows a cluster of storms
moving south along the MS River.  Mostly clear skies will promote
additional heating to the south over the coastal plain, which will
further destabilize the airmass and lead to steepening 0-2 km lapse
rates (in excess of 8 deg C/km) as temperatures warm into the lower
90s deg F.  Deep-layer northerly steering flow will favor southward
movement of the thunderstorm cluster and new updraft development on
the leading edge of the cold pool.  As this convection likely
continues to develop and become surface-based through the mid
afternoon, there will be a corresponding increase in potential for
scattered wet microbursts (55-65 mph gusts capable of wind damage)
with the stronger cores.  This activity will likely push south of
the coast by the early evening.  

...Dakotas/Upper Midwest into the Central High Plains...
A mid-level shortwave trough over Alberta/Saskatchewan will move
eastward across the Canadian prairie provinces through tonight, with
a belt of moderately strong flow aloft and multiple MCVs influencing
the northern Plains to Upper Midwest.  Widely scattered
thunderstorms are forecast to develop late this afternoon into the
early evening within a moist/unstable airmass near an
eastward-moving front and weak surface wave across central/eastern
ND.  Other convection may initiate and then move southeastward from
south-central Canada.  Around 35-45 kt of deep-layer shear will
support supercells initially with a large hail threat.  The
development of east/southeastward-moving clusters should eventually
occur this evening, with scattered severe gusts possible.

Farther south and a bit more removed from the stronger cyclonic flow
aloft, additional high-based thunderstorms are expected to form by
late afternoon/early evening across the Black Hills/western NE in
the vicinity of the surface front.  Strengthening and sufficient
veering of winds with height through the mid levels should support
initial supercells capable of large hail, prior to a clustering of
these southeastward-moving thunderstorms.  The risk for scattered
severe gusts may linger through mid/late evening across the central
High Plains before increasing MLCIN encourages gradual weakening.

...Coastal Carolinas...
A larger-scale low/troughing centered over the St. Lawrence Valley
will maintain cyclonic mid to high-level flow over the region this
afternoon.  The 12 UTC Charleston, SC and Newport, NC raobs showed a
very unstable airmass in place to the southeast of a cold front
draped over the Carolinas.  Veering and strengthening flow with
height will support deep-layer shear (30-35 kt) favorable for storm
organization.  The stronger storms will be capable of a
hail/wind-damage risk this afternoon.  See MCD #2112 for short-term
details through early afternoon regarding severe potential.

...Northern Great Basin into the Central Rockies...
Isolated to scattered high-based thunderstorms are expected to
develop this afternoon across parts of the northern Great Basin into
the central Rockies amid steepening low-level lapse rates with a
very well-mixed boundary layer.  Since this convection will develop
along the periphery of stronger flow aloft, modest organization is
possible even though low-level moisture and related instability
should remain weak.  Occasional dry microbursts may occur, some of
which could pose an isolated threat for severe gusts.

...Maine...
Partly cloudy skies will promote some heating and resulting in
weak instability (500-1000 J/kg MLCAPE) by early to mid afternoon. 
Forecast soundings show elongated hodographs due to a 100+ kt upper
speed max overhead.  A few of the stronger thunderstorms may be
capable of a localized hail/wind risk for a few hours before this
marginal threat subsides by early evening.

..Smith/Chalmers.. 08/24/2026

855 
WTPZ44 KNHC 240851
TCDEP4
 
Tropical Storm Iselle Discussion Number   4
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP092026
200 AM PDT Mon Aug 24 2026
 
Iselle is being affected by northwesterly shear, with much of the 
deep convection displaced to the south and east of the center. Over 
the past several hours, the convective structure has evolved, with 
curved banding becoming increasingly established around the center. 
The latest Dvorak intensity estimate from TAFB at 0600 UTC was 
3.0/45 kt; however, recent objective intensity estimates from 
UW-CIMSS have increased and range from 43-59 kt. Given the improved 
banding evident on satellite imagery and the upward trend in 
objective intensity estimates, the initial intensity is set at 50 kt 
for this advisory. 

The tropical storm is moving northwestward around 10 kt, steered by 
a mid-level ridge centered over the southwestern United States. 
Iselle is forecast to turn toward the west-northwest as the ridge 
expands westward into the eastern Pacific, and this general motion 
is expected through much of this week. The latest NHC forecast is 
very similar to the previous advisory and lies near the middle of 
the track guidance envelope, closest to the HFIP Corrected Consensus 
(HCCA) and the Google DeepMind (GDMI) model. There is considerable 
spread among the guidance during the latter portion of the forecast 
period, resulting in slightly below-average confidence in the track 
forecast. 

Iselle is moving over warm waters around 29-30 C and remains within 
a fairly moist mid-level environment, which should support gradual 
strengthening during the next 12-24 h. The latest NHC forecast 
brings Iselle to hurricane strength during this period, near the 
upper end of the intensity guidance, and is consistent with HCCA and 
GDM. Beyond 24 h, increasing wind shear, cooler waters and 
progressively drier mid-level air are expected to lead to gradual 
weakening from Tuesday through the remainder of the week. The ECMWF 
and GFS simulated satellite imagery suggest that Iselle may struggle 
to maintain organized convection by late this week, raising the 
possibility that the cyclone could become post-tropical earlier than 
currently forecast. 
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  24/0900Z 17.8N 116.2W   50 KT  60 MPH
 12H  24/1800Z 19.0N 117.4W   60 KT  70 MPH
 24H  25/0600Z 20.1N 118.9W   65 KT  75 MPH
 36H  25/1800Z 20.9N 120.7W   60 KT  70 MPH
 48H  26/0600Z 21.5N 122.5W   55 KT  65 MPH
 60H  26/1800Z 21.9N 124.4W   50 KT  60 MPH
 72H  27/0600Z 22.4N 126.3W   45 KT  50 MPH
 96H  28/0600Z 23.1N 130.1W   35 KT  40 MPH
120H  29/0600Z 23.9N 134.1W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 
$$
Forecaster Adams

855 
WTPZ44 KNHC 240851
TCDEP4
 
Tropical Storm Iselle Discussion Number   4
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP092026
200 AM PDT Mon Aug 24 2026
 
Iselle is being affected by northwesterly shear, with much of the 
deep convection displaced to the south and east of the center. Over 
the past several hours, the convective structure has evolved, with 
curved banding becoming increasingly established around the center. 
The latest Dvorak intensity estimate from TAFB at 0600 UTC was 
3.0/45 kt; however, recent objective intensity estimates from 
UW-CIMSS have increased and range from 43-59 kt. Given the improved 
banding evident on satellite imagery and the upward trend in 
objective intensity estimates, the initial intensity is set at 50 kt 
for this advisory. 

The tropical storm is moving northwestward around 10 kt, steered by 
a mid-level ridge centered over the southwestern United States. 
Iselle is forecast to turn toward the west-northwest as the ridge 
expands westward into the eastern Pacific, and this general motion 
is expected through much of this week. The latest NHC forecast is 
very similar to the previous advisory and lies near the middle of 
the track guidance envelope, closest to the HFIP Corrected Consensus 
(HCCA) and the Google DeepMind (GDMI) model. There is considerable 
spread among the guidance during the latter portion of the forecast 
period, resulting in slightly below-average confidence in the track 
forecast. 

Iselle is moving over warm waters around 29-30 C and remains within 
a fairly moist mid-level environment, which should support gradual 
strengthening during the next 12-24 h. The latest NHC forecast 
brings Iselle to hurricane strength during this period, near the 
upper end of the intensity guidance, and is consistent with HCCA and 
GDM. Beyond 24 h, increasing wind shear, cooler waters and 
progressively drier mid-level air are expected to lead to gradual 
weakening from Tuesday through the remainder of the week. The ECMWF 
and GFS simulated satellite imagery suggest that Iselle may struggle 
to maintain organized convection by late this week, raising the 
possibility that the cyclone could become post-tropical earlier than 
currently forecast. 
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  24/0900Z 17.8N 116.2W   50 KT  60 MPH
 12H  24/1800Z 19.0N 117.4W   60 KT  70 MPH
 24H  25/0600Z 20.1N 118.9W   65 KT  75 MPH
 36H  25/1800Z 20.9N 120.7W   60 KT  70 MPH
 48H  26/0600Z 21.5N 122.5W   55 KT  65 MPH
 60H  26/1800Z 21.9N 124.4W   50 KT  60 MPH
 72H  27/0600Z 22.4N 126.3W   45 KT  50 MPH
 96H  28/0600Z 23.1N 130.1W   35 KT  40 MPH
120H  29/0600Z 23.9N 134.1W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 
$$
Forecaster Adams

000
FOPZ14 KNHC 240850
PWSEP4
                                                                    
TROPICAL STORM ISELLE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER   4           
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP092026               
0900 UTC MON AUG 24 2026                                            
                                                                    
AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ISELLE WAS LOCATED NEAR       
LATITUDE 17.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 116.2 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED   
WINDS NEAR 50 KTS...60 MPH...95 KM/H.                               
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   PACIFIC  DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME     
                                                                    
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS                 
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...                                  
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...                                  
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...                                  
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE               
    OP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)               
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        06Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT                       
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.             
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY              
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.                 
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -   
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
ISLA CLARION   34 86   X(86)   X(86)   X(86)   X(86)   X(86)   X(86)
 
20N 120W       34  X  55(55)  24(79)   1(80)   X(80)   X(80)   X(80)
20N 120W       50  X   4( 4)  23(27)   X(27)   X(27)   X(27)   X(27)
20N 120W       64  X   1( 1)   9(10)   X(10)   X(10)   X(10)   X(10)
 
20N 125W       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   1( 4)   X( 4)
 
25N 130W       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   5( 5)   2( 7)
 
25N 135W       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   6( 6)
 
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER ADAMS

000
FOPZ14 KNHC 240850
PWSEP4
                                                                    
TROPICAL STORM ISELLE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER   4           
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP092026               
0900 UTC MON AUG 24 2026                                            
                                                                    
AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ISELLE WAS LOCATED NEAR       
LATITUDE 17.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 116.2 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED   
WINDS NEAR 50 KTS...60 MPH...95 KM/H.                               
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   PACIFIC  DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME     
                                                                    
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS                 
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...                                  
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...                                  
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...                                  
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE               
    OP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)               
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        06Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT                       
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.             
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY              
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.                 
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -   
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
ISLA CLARION   34 86   X(86)   X(86)   X(86)   X(86)   X(86)   X(86)
 
20N 120W       34  X  55(55)  24(79)   1(80)   X(80)   X(80)   X(80)
20N 120W       50  X   4( 4)  23(27)   X(27)   X(27)   X(27)   X(27)
20N 120W       64  X   1( 1)   9(10)   X(10)   X(10)   X(10)   X(10)
 
20N 125W       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   1( 4)   X( 4)
 
25N 130W       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   5( 5)   2( 7)
 
25N 135W       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   6( 6)
 
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER ADAMS

000
WTPZ34 KNHC 240850
TCPEP4
 
BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Iselle Advisory Number   4
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP092026
200 AM PDT Mon Aug 24 2026
 
...ISELLE STRENGTHENS SLIGHTLY...
 
 
SUMMARY OF 200 AM PDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.8N 116.2W
ABOUT 540 MI...865 KM SW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...996 MB...29.42 INCHES
 
 
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.
 
 
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 AM PDT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Iselle was
located near latitude 17.8 North, longitude 116.2 West. Iselle is
moving toward the northwest near 12 mph (19 km/h) and this motion is
expected to continue through tonight, followed by a gradual turn
toward the west-northwest on Tuesday.
 
Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 60 mph (95 km/h) with 
higher gusts. Some strengthening is expected over the next day or 
so, and Iselle could become a short-lived hurricane by late tonight. 
Gradual weakening is then forecast starting on Tuesday. 
 
Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 125 miles (205 km)
from the center.
 
The estimated minimum central pressure is 996 mb (29.42 inches).
 
 
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF: Swells generated by Iselle will affect the west coast of the
Baja California Peninsula beginning today. These swells are likely
to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please
consult products from your local weather office.
 
 
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 800 AM PDT.
 
$$
Forecaster Adams

000
WTPZ34 KNHC 240850
TCPEP4
 
BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Iselle Advisory Number   4
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP092026
200 AM PDT Mon Aug 24 2026
 
...ISELLE STRENGTHENS SLIGHTLY...
 
 
SUMMARY OF 200 AM PDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.8N 116.2W
ABOUT 540 MI...865 KM SW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...996 MB...29.42 INCHES
 
 
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.
 
 
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 AM PDT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Iselle was
located near latitude 17.8 North, longitude 116.2 West. Iselle is
moving toward the northwest near 12 mph (19 km/h) and this motion is
expected to continue through tonight, followed by a gradual turn
toward the west-northwest on Tuesday.
 
Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 60 mph (95 km/h) with 
higher gusts. Some strengthening is expected over the next day or 
so, and Iselle could become a short-lived hurricane by late tonight. 
Gradual weakening is then forecast starting on Tuesday. 
 
Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 125 miles (205 km)
from the center.
 
The estimated minimum central pressure is 996 mb (29.42 inches).
 
 
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF: Swells generated by Iselle will affect the west coast of the
Baja California Peninsula beginning today. These swells are likely
to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please
consult products from your local weather office.
 
 
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 800 AM PDT.
 
$$
Forecaster Adams