SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook

Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1054 AM CST Fri Dec 26 2025

Valid 261700Z - 271200Z

Minor adjustments to the outlook were made based on a southwestward
trend in the morning guidance with respect to the corridor of
strongest westerly winds across portions of the Texas Panhandle and
northeastern New Mexico this afternoon. Otherwise, the forecast
remains on track.

..Supinie.. 12/26/2025

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1227 AM CST Fri Dec 26 2025/

...Synopsis...
An upper-level ridge over the central CONUS will remain
quasi-stationary throughout the day, with an embedded speed max
traversing the ridge from the Southwest into the Central Plains.
Diurnal heating/mixing will allow this enhanced flow aloft to mix
toward the surface, resulting in sustained westerly winds near 15
mph across portions of the southern High Plains. Additionally,
downslope westerly winds near 15-20 mph should develop along the lee
of the Rockies, extending into portions of central Colorado during
the afternoon. Afternoon RH values across these regions should fall
into the lower teens amid dry/receptive fuels, promoting Elevated
fire-weather conditions.

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...

Read more
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/fire_wx/fwdy1.html

SPC MD 2274
MD 2274 CONCERNING FREEZING RAIN FOR NORTHERN MARYLAND...CENTRAL TO NORTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA...AND FAR WESTERN NEW YORK

Mesoscale Discussion 2274
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1013 AM CST Fri Dec 26 2025

Areas affected...Northern Maryland...central to northwest
Pennsylvania...and far western New York

Concerning...Freezing rain 

Valid 261613Z - 262115Z

SUMMARY...A wintry mix, eventually transitioning to primarily light
to moderate freezing rain, will spread southeast through the
afternoon into northwest and central Pennsylvania and western New
York.

DISCUSSION...Recent mPING reports and ASOS/AWOS observations are
beginning to show areas of light freezing rain and sleet spreading
from far northeast OH into northwestern PA and far western NY over
the past 1-2 hours. Although regional 12z soundings sampled a stout
dry layer from the surface to about 3 km, the recent sleet/freezing
rain reports indicate that preceding precipitation has allowed for
adequate saturation in the mid/low-levels to allow hydrometeors to
reach the surface. Consequently, surface sleet/freezing rain amounts
will likely increase through the afternoon as more widespread
precipitation (attendant to a mid-level wave currently upstream
across southeast MI) overspreads the region. 

Correlation Coefficient imagery from KPBZ and KCCX are sampling a
melting layer between 4-8 kft ARL over central PA, which should be
maintained through the afternoon amid increasing warm advection
between 925-850 mb. Near the surface, weak thermal advection below
0.5 km should maintain sub-freezing temperatures and support
freezing hydrometeors. Although a mix of sleet/freezing rain is
expected over the next couple of hours, a transition to primarily
freezing rain is anticipated this afternoon as the depth/strength of
the warm nose aloft increases. Latest forecast guidance supports
this scenario and suggests that freezing rain rates upwards of 0.05
to 0.1 inch/hour will be possible across central PA into far western
NY - especially under heavier precipitation bands and/or where
precipitation rates are locally enhanced by weak convective
processes.

..Moore.. 12/26/2025

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BUF...CTP...LWX...PBZ...CLE...

LAT...LON   42397956 42537915 42517885 40907699 40487663 40117667
            39707684 39537725 39457795 39547855 39687892 39977920
            40187931 40427948 40537956 41428044 41768079 41958070
            42148015 42397956 

Read more
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md2274.html

SPC - No watches are valid as of Fri Dec 26 16:56:02 UTC 2025
No watches are valid as of Fri Dec 26 16:56:02 UTC 2025.
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/

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SPC Dec 26, 2025 1630 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook

Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1026 AM CST Fri Dec 26 2025

Valid 261630Z - 271200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not forecast across the contiguous United
States through tonight.

...Synopsis and Discussion...
An upper trough will continue to progress eastward over the western
CONUS today. With cool temperatures at mid levels supporting weak
MUCAPE, isolated thunderstorms may occur across parts of CA into the
Great Basin and northern Rockies through the period as large-scale
ascent associated with the upper trough spreads inland. Mid-level
flow and related deep-layer shear should remain strong enough to
support some updraft organization across these areas, but limited
low-level moisture, cool surface temperatures, and overall weak
instability will likely hinder a meaningful severe threat from
materializing today. Elsewhere, isolated lightning flashes may occur
with elevated convection in a strong low-level warm advection regime
over portions of the Great Lakes into the Mid-Atlantic and southern
NY as a mid-level shortwave trough advances east-southeastward
across these areas.

..Gleason/Wendt.. 12/26/2025

Read more
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk_1630.html

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