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M 5.3 - 151 km WSW of Adak, Alaska
• M 1.8 - 26 km SSW of South Dos Palos, CA
• M 2.2 - 57 km S of Whites City, New Mexico
• M 4.7 - 33 km SW of Sipí, Colombia
• M 6.6 - 115 km NNE of Teluknaga, Indonesia
• M 4.2 - 5 km SE of Ilihan, Philippines
• M 0.8 - 8 km NW of The Geysers, CA
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Tropical Storm Norbert Forecast Discussion Number 11
Webmaster
5 hours ago
Issued at 1100 PM HST Fri Sep 11 2026 000
WTPZ44 KNHC 120849
TCDEP4
Tropical Storm Norbert Discussion Number 11
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP142026
1100 PM HST Fri Sep 11 2026
Deep convection associated with an earlier well-established curved
band has deteriorated over the past several hours, likely due to
some mid-level dry air entrainment. A 0442 UTC scatterometer pass
indicated peak winds just above 40 kt within the northwest quadrant.
Additionally, the latest subjective Dvorak intensity estimate from
TAFB is T3.0/45 kt, with objective estimates from UW-CIMSS ranging
from 45 to 50 kt. Given these data and the degraded convective
structure, the initial intensity is lowered to a generous 50 kt.
The initial motion is west-northwestward, or 285/8 kt. The track
guidance has come into much better agreement this cycle and shows
Norbert continuing generally westward through the weekend as a low-
to mid-level subtropical ridge remains north of the cyclone. A
gradual turn toward the west-southwest is then forecast during the
early to middle portion of next week. Despite the improved agreement
among the track guidance this cycle, there has been considerable
run-to-run variability, and confidence in the forecast beyond the
weekend remains lower than normal. The NHC track forecast is largely
an update of the previous advisory and lies close to the multi-model
consensus (HCCA) and Google DeepMind ensemble mean.
Environmental conditions remain favorable for some strengthening
over the weekend, and Norbert is forecast to approach hurricane
intensity by 24 to 36 h. Thereafter, a gradual weakening trend is
forecast through the remainder of the period, likely due to a
combination of mid-level dry air entrainment and weakening
upper-level divergence. Simulated satellite imagery from both the
GFS and ECMWF broadly support this and depict Norbert struggling to
maintain organized deep convection as it moves westward to
west-southwestward next week. The latest NHC intensity forecast has
been lowered slightly from the previous advisory. It remains above
the intensity guidance envelope through the weekend, then trends
toward the middle to upper end of the guidance next week.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 12/0900Z 17.1N 127.4W 50 KT 60 MPH
12H 12/1800Z 17.4N 128.8W 55 KT 65 MPH
24H 13/0600Z 17.8N 130.6W 60 KT 70 MPH
36H 13/1800Z 18.1N 132.6W 60 KT 70 MPH
48H 14/0600Z 18.4N 134.7W 55 KT 65 MPH
60H 14/1800Z 18.4N 137.0W 50 KT 60 MPH
72H 15/0600Z 18.3N 139.4W 50 KT 60 MPH
96H 16/0600Z 17.4N 144.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
120H 17/0600Z 15.6N 148.1W 45 KT 50 MPH
$$
Forecaster Pierce/Gibbs Source: Tropical Storm Norbert Forecast Discussion Number 11
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Tropical Storm Norbert Wind Speed Probabilities Number 11
Webmaster
5 hours ago
Issued at 0900 UTC SAT SEP 12 2026 000
FOPZ14 KNHC 120849
PWSEP4
TROPICAL STORM NORBERT WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 11
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142026
0900 UTC SAT SEP 12 2026
AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM NORBERT WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 17.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 127.4 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS NEAR 50 KTS...60 MPH...95 KM/H.
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME
HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...
...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...
...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE
OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)
(CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
06Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.
- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -
FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION KT
20N 135W 34 X X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 4(13) X(13) X(13)
20N 140W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 5(10) X(10)
15N 145W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5)
20N 145W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3)
15N 150W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10)
15N 150W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3)
$$
FORECASTER PIERCE/GIBBS Source: Tropical Storm Norbert Wind Speed Probabilities Number 11
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Tropical Storm Norbert Forecast Advisory Number 11
Webmaster
5 hours ago
Issued at 0900 UTC SAT SEP 12 2026 000
WTPZ24 KNHC 120849
TCMEP4
TROPICAL STORM NORBERT FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 11
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142026
0900 UTC SAT SEP 12 2026
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.1N 127.4W AT 12/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 8 KT
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 999 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT.
50 KT....... 0NE 0SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT....... 50NE 20SE 20SW 60NW.
4 M SEAS....150NE 60SE 90SW 150NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.1N 127.4W AT 12/0900Z
AT 12/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.0N 127.0W
FORECAST VALID 12/1800Z 17.4N 128.8W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT... 70NE 30SE 30SW 60NW.
FORECAST VALID 13/0600Z 17.8N 130.6W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT... 90NE 40SE 30SW 50NW.
FORECAST VALID 13/1800Z 18.1N 132.6W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT... 80NE 40SE 30SW 50NW.
FORECAST VALID 14/0600Z 18.4N 134.7W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 20NW.
34 KT... 70NE 40SE 40SW 40NW.
FORECAST VALID 14/1800Z 18.4N 137.0W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT... 60NE 30SE 30SW 40NW.
FORECAST VALID 15/0600Z 18.3N 139.4W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT... 60NE 30SE 30SW 40NW.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY
OUTLOOK VALID 16/0600Z 17.4N 144.0W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 20SE 20SW 40NW.
OUTLOOK VALID 17/0600Z 15.6N 148.1W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 20SE 20SW 40NW.
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.1N 127.4W
NEXT ADVISORY AT 12/1500Z
$$
FORECASTER PIERCE/GIBBS Source: Tropical Storm Norbert Forecast Advisory Number 11
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Tropical Storm Norbert Public Advisory Number 11
Webmaster
5 hours ago
Issued at 1100 PM HST Fri Sep 11 2026 000
WTPZ34 KNHC 120849
TCPEP4
BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Norbert Advisory Number 11
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP142026
1100 PM HST Fri Sep 11 2026
...NORBERT WEAKENS SLIGHTLY...
SUMMARY OF 1100 PM HST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.1N 127.4W
ABOUT 1205 MI...1935 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
ABOUT 1820 MI...2930 KM E OF HILO HAWAII
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB...29.50 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 PM HST (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Norbert was
located near latitude 17.1 North, longitude 127.4 West. Norbert is
moving toward the west-northwest near 9 mph (15 km/h), and this
general motion is expected to continue over the next couple of days.
Maximum sustained winds are near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts.
Gradual strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours, and
Norbert is forecast to approach hurricane intensity by this weekend.
Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km)
from the center.
The estimated minimum central pressure is 999 mb (29.50 inches).
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 AM HST.
$$
Forecaster Pierce/Gibbs Source: Tropical Storm Norbert Public Advisory Number 11
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Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook
Webmaster
8 hours ago
000 ABPZ20 KNHC 120535 TWOEP Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1100 PM PDT Fri Sep 11 2026 For the eastern and central North Pacific east of 180 longitude: Active Systems: The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical Storm Norbert, located well west-southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California Peninsula. Central and Western East Pacific (EP97): Showers and thunderstorms associated with a broad area of low pressure located several hundred miles southwest of the southwestern coast of Mexico remain disorganized. Environmental conditions are conducive for development, and a tropical depression is expected to form over the weekend while it moves generally west-northwestward to westward over the central and western portions of the eastern Pacific basin. For more information, including gale warnings, please see the High Seas Forecast issued by the National Weather Service. * Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent. Well Southeast of the Hawaiian Islands: A broad trough of low pressure located several hundred miles southeast of Hilo, Hawaii is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Gradual development of this system is possible during the next few days while it moves generally northwestward and then meanders. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent. && High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service can be found under AWIPS header NFDHSFEPI, WMO header FZPN02 KWBC, and on the web at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFEPI.php $$ Forecaster Gibbs Source: Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook
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