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Magnitude 3.6 earthquake hits 34 miles northwest of Chase, Alaska, early morning
• World Earthquake Report for Sunday, 11 October 2026
• M 7.7 - 12 km WSW of Pitaloza Arriba, Panama
• M 1.1 - 11 km WNW of Cobb, CA
• M 3.1 - 72 km ESE of Adak, Alaska
• M 2.6 - 64 km SE of Pedro Bay, Alaska
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Post-Tropical Cyclone Isaias Forecast Discussion Number 20
Webmaster
17 minutes ago
Issued at 1100 AM EDT Sun Oct 11 2026 000
WTNT44 KWNH 111500
TCDAT4
Post-Tropical Cyclone Isaias Discussion Number 20
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD AL092026
1100 AM EDT Sun Oct 11 2026
Key Messages:
1. Areas of heavy rainfall will continue across portions of the
Central Appalachians and Mid-Atlantic today, with localized flash
and urban flooding possible. River flooding continues in western
North Carolina.
2. Swells from Isaias will continue to affect much of the Gulf and
Southeastern Atlantic coasts of the United States today. These
swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.
3. A couple of tornadoes are possible today across the Piedmont and
Coastal Plain of Virginia and North Carolina.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 11/1500Z 37.5N 84.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
12H 12/0000Z 38.8N 80.2W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
24H 12/1200Z...DISSIPATED
$$
Forecaster Chenard Source: Post-Tropical Cyclone Isaias Forecast Discussion Number 20
0
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Post-Tropical Cyclone Isaias Forecast Advisory Number 20
Webmaster
18 minutes ago
Issued at 1500 UTC SUN OCT 11 2026 000
WTNT24 KWNH 111459
TCMAT4
POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE ISAIAS FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 20
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD AL092026
1500 UTC SUN OCT 11 2026
POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 37.5N 84.0W AT 11/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST OR 65 DEGREES AT 19 KT
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1010 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 20 KT WITH GUSTS TO 30 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 37.5N 84.0W AT 11/1500Z
AT 11/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 37.3N 84.8W
FORECAST VALID 12/0000Z 38.8N 80.2W...POST-TROP/INLAND
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.
FORECAST VALID 12/1200Z...DISSIPATED
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 37.5N 84.0W
THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST/ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE
NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM
$$
FORECASTER CHENARD Source: Post-Tropical Cyclone Isaias Forecast Advisory Number 20
0
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Hurricane Simon Forecast Discussion Number 17
Webmaster
19 minutes ago
Issued at 900 AM CST Sun Oct 11 2026 000
WTPZ45 KNHC 111458
TCDEP5
Hurricane Simon Discussion Number 17
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP202026
900 AM CST Sun Oct 11 2026
Simon continues to be a powerful Category 4 hurricane as it gets
ever closer to the coast of Mexico this morning. Since the previous
advisory, the eye definition on infrared satellite has cooled
slightly and the overall central dense overcast related to the
eyewall convection has been shrinking in size. There was a helpful
GPM microwave pass at 1152 UTC, showing that the inner core is
showing some hints of disruption, with a larger outer band becoming
more dominant on Simon's northwestward side. The 12 UTC subjective
Dvorak fix was T6.5/125 kt, and the objective satellite estimates
are in the 119-127 kt range, so the initial intensity is being
nudged down to 125 kt for this advisory.
The hurricane has maintained a north-northwestward motion this
morning, or 345 degrees at 5 kt, bringing the hurricane very close
to the coast of Mexico. On Simon's current heading, dangerous wind,
surge, and rainfall effects appear likely over portions of
west-central Mexico in the Hurricane Warning area today. It also
remains possible the hurricane makes direct landfall between Playa
Perula and Cabo Corrientes in the next 12-18 hours. However, like
the previous forecast cycle, the most reliable guidance aids
(HCCA, GDMI, WN3I) have shifted westward once again, and the NHC
track forecast has been shifted in that direction, but due to
continuity constraints is not shifted all the way to those solutions
yet. To make matters even more uncertain, there are some
deterministic global model solutions (00 UTC ECMWF, 06 UTC GFS) that
show Simon turning southwestward near the end of the forecast
period, and that is also seen in a handful of the Google DeepMind
ensemble members. This NHC track continues to favor a track that
stays closer to the coast of Mexico before going inland into Mexico
in 72-96 h. Needless to say, this is a low confidence track forecast
with higher than usual uncertainty given the spread in the
guidance.
The intensity forecast also presents challenges. As mentioned in the
previous discussion, the forecast is sensitive to how close Simon
passes to western Mexico during the next day or so. A track closer
to the coast or inland would likely result in more severe disruption
of Simon's circulation due to the high terrain of the Sierra Madre
mountains, leading to rapid weakening. However, with the track
shifting further offshore, this weakening may not be as severe,
though some negative topographic influence is shown in the majority
of the guidance leading to weakening. However, like the track, the
current intensity forecast is low confidence forecast because only a
small deviation either east or west could result in Simon either
dissipating after landfall or staying much stronger than the current
forecast offshore. The NHC intensity forecast is a compromise
between these extremes.
Key Messages:
1. Catastrophic wind and life-threatening storm surge impacts are
likely along a portion of the west-central coast of Mexico, and a
Hurricane Warning is in effect from Punta San Telmo to El Roblito.
Residents should shelter in a safe room to ride out the storm as the
most significant hazards with Simon are now ongoing.
2. Heavy rainfall associated with Simon will impact portions of
southwestern Mexico through Monday. This rainfall will produce
life-threatening flooding and mudslides, especially in areas of
steep terrain.
3. Swells will affect portions of the southwestern and west-central
coast of Mexico over the next few days. These swells are likely to
cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please
consult products from your local weather office.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 11/1500Z 19.2N 105.3W 125 KT 145 MPH...NEAR THE COAST
12H 12/0000Z 19.9N 105.6W 105 KT 120 MPH...NEAR THE COAST
24H 12/1200Z 20.5N 106.0W 85 KT 100 MPH...NEAR THE COAST
36H 13/0000Z 21.1N 106.4W 70 KT 80 MPH
48H 13/1200Z 21.8N 106.8W 60 KT 70 MPH
60H 14/0000Z 22.5N 106.9W 50 KT 60 MPH
72H 14/1200Z 23.0N 106.9W 50 KT 60 MPH
96H 15/1200Z 23.9N 106.4W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
120H 16/1200Z...DISSIPATED
$$
Forecaster Papin Source: Hurricane Simon Forecast Discussion Number 17
0
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Hurricane Simon Public Advisory Number 17
Webmaster
25 minutes ago
Issued at 900 AM CST Sun Oct 11 2026 838
WTPZ35 KNHC 111452
TCPEP5
BULLETIN
Hurricane Simon Advisory Number 17
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP202026
900 AM CST Sun Oct 11 2026
...CORE OF EXTREMELY DANGEROUS HURRICANE SIMON NEAR THE COAST OF
WEST-CENTRAL MEXICO...
SUMMARY OF 900 AM CST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.2N 105.3W
ABOUT 65 MI...105 KM WNW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
ABOUT 85 MI...140 KM SSE OF CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...145 MPH...230 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 345 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...937 MB...27.67 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
The government of Mexico of discontinued to Tropical Storm Watch
from East of Punta San Telmo to Lazaro Cardenas.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Punta San Telmo to El Roblito
* Las Islas Marias
A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. Preparations to protect life
and property should be rushed to completion.
For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 900 AM CST (1500 UTC), the center of Hurricane Simon was located
near latitude 19.2 North, longitude 105.3 West. Simon is moving
toward the north-northwest near 7 mph (11 km/h) and this general
motion is expected to continue over the next day or two. On the
forecast track, Simon is expected to be very near the coast of
west-central Mexico later today and remain close to the coast on
Monday.
Maximum sustained winds are near 145 mph (230 km/h) with higher
gusts. Simon is a category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson
Hurricane Wind Scale. While some weakening could occur, Simon is
still forecast to move very near the coast of west-central Mexico as
a major hurricane today. More significant weakening could occur if
the core of Simon moves fully onshore or interacts with the higher
terrain.
Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles
(130 km).
The estimated minimum central pressure is 937 mb (27.67 inches).
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Simon can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP5 and WMO header WTPZ45 KNHC.
WIND: Hurricane conditions are likely beginning in the southern part
of the Hurricane Warning, with hurricane conditions spreading
northward later today into Monday.
RAINFALL: Simon is expected to produce additional rainfall totals of
8 to 16 inches over portions of southwestern Mexico, with isolated
maximum storm totals of 30 inches possible across portions of
Michoacan, Colima, and Jalisco through Monday. This rainfall will
produce life-threatening flooding and mudslides, especially in areas
of steep terrain.
For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with Simon,
please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic
available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep5.shtml?rainqpf.
STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge is expected along the immediate
coast near and to the east of where the center approaches landfall.
Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and
destructive waves.
SURF: Swells generated by Simon will affect portions of the coast
of southwestern and west-central Mexico during the next few days.
These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip
current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather
office.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 1200 PM CST.
Next complete advisory at 300 PM CST.
$$
Forecaster Papin Source: Hurricane Simon Public Advisory Number 17
0
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