|
|
|
0 members (),
1,011
guests, and
24
robots. |
|
Key:
Admin,
Global Mod,
Mod
|
|
S |
M |
T |
W |
T |
F |
S |
|
|
|
|
1
|
2
|
3
|
4
|
|
5
|
6
|
7
|
8
|
9
|
10
|
11
|
|
12
|
13
|
14
|
15
|
16
|
17
|
18
|
|
19
|
20
|
21
|
22
|
23
|
24
|
25
|
|
26
|
27
|
28
|
29
|
30
|
|
|
|
There are no members with birthdays on this day. |
SPC MD 387
Webmaster
Yesterday at 07:21 PM
SPC MD 387MD 0387 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR PARTS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS 
Mesoscale Discussion 0387
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1252 PM CDT Sun Apr 12 2026
Areas affected...parts of central and southeastern Texas
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely
Valid 121752Z - 122015Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent
SUMMARY...Strong thunderstorm development may persist into the 4-6
PM CDT time frame, perhaps accompanied by some risk for a brief
tornado, and a few strong surface gusts before storms diminish.
DISCUSSION...Moderate southerly return flow persists across the
middle Texas coastal plain, near the southern periphery of a belt of
40-50 kt southwesterly 500 mb flow extending from south of the Texas
Big Bend through the southeastern Great Plains. One short wave
impulse embedded within this regime now appears to be shifting
across/northwest of the Ark-La-Texas vicinity, with perhaps an even
more subtle perturbation/associated speed maximum still upstream and
forecast to propagate across central Texas through mid to late
afternoon.
Likely aided by inflow of moist boundary-layer characterized by
surface dew points around 70F, which appears to be contributing to
CAPE on the order of 1500 J/kg, vigorous convective development to
the north-northwest of Victoria has been exhibiting transient
supercell structure the past couple of hours. This appears to
focused near a lingering 30+ kt southerly 850 mb jet axis, which
various model output suggests may still undergo some strengthening
into mid/late afternoon. As this occurs, the aforementioned
convection and trailing storms developing to the southwest may
undergo further intensification and upscale growth.
This may be accompanied by at least some risk for a brief tornado.
With forecast soundings indicating near saturated profiles through a
fairly deep surface-based layer, the risk for damaging wind gusts
may be initially hindered, but, with time, this potential could
gradually increase with heavy precipitation loading and further
upscale convective growth.
..Kerr/Mosier.. 04/12/2026
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...HGX...CRP...EWX...
LAT...LON 28349792 29269779 30349679 30349626 29909574 29159676
28349792
MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN
Read morehttps://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md0387.html
0
18
Read More
|
SPC MD 388
Webmaster
Yesterday at 07:21 PM
SPC MD 388MD 0388 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHERN UTAH INTO EASTERN IDAHO...FAR WESTERN WYOMING...EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN MONTANA 
Mesoscale Discussion 0388
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0140 PM CDT Sun Apr 12 2026
Areas affected...portions of northern Utah into eastern Idaho...far
western Wyoming...extreme southwestern Montana
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely
Valid 121840Z - 122045Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent
SUMMARY...A few severe gusts may occur with the strongest storms
that can mature over the next several hours. The severe threat
should remain isolated.
DISCUSSION...Clearing skies are supporting boundary-layer
mixing/destabilization amid the approach of a 500 mb vort max,
resulting in increased lift for convective development. Visible
satellite imagery depicts deepening CU, with NLDN lightning data
already showing a few lightning flashes in spots. Storms should
continue to increase in coverage and intensity through the afternoon
given 8+ C/km mid-level lapse rates amid 30 kts of effective bulk
shear. Storms should be mainly multicellular, the strongest of which
may be accompanied by occasional strong wind gusts (a few of which
may be severe, especially in higher-terrain areas), and perhaps an
instance or two of hail. Given the modest speed shear, the severe
threat should remain isolated at best, so a WW issuance is not
expected.
..Squitieri/Mosier.. 04/12/2026
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...RIW...TFX...SLC...PIH...MSO...BOI...LKN...
LAT...LON 41451373 41571385 42281435 42551434 43131422 44151393
44961322 45031241 44951142 44651061 44171030 42791005
41641001 40751026 40321090 40091188 40131251 40511325
41451373
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN
Read morehttps://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md0388.html
0
20
Read More
|
SPC MD 389
Webmaster
Yesterday at 07:21 PM
SPC MD 389MD 0389 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR PARTS OF CENTRAL TEXAS 
Mesoscale Discussion 0389
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0219 PM CDT Sun Apr 12 2026
Areas affected...parts of central Texas
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely
Valid 121919Z - 122115Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent
SUMMARY...A couple of severe storms with potential to produce severe
hail may gradually develop through 4-6 PM CDT. It is not yet clear
that a severe weather watch will be needed, but trends will continue
to be monitored for this possibility.
DISCUSSION...Beneath the belt of 40-50 kt southwesterly 500 mb flow
overspreading central Texas, deepening convective development is
evident near and west of the I-35 corridor, from the Hill Country
northward into areas just southwest of the Metroplex. Forcing for
ascent downstream of a jet streak embedded within this regime may be
aiding development, which appears focused within weak
lower/mid-tropospheric warm advection on the northern/northeastern
periphery of a plume of more strongly capping elevated mixed-layer
air.
Boundary-layer moisture characterized by surface dew points near 70F
appears to be contributing to CAPE in excess of 1500 J/kg, aided by
increasing insolation in the wake of early day convection spreading
northeast and east of the region. Given the strong deep-layer
shear, it appears that a couple of supercell structures with
potential to produce large hail may develop as scattered storms
initiate over the next few hours.
..Kerr/Mosier.. 04/12/2026
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...FWD...EWX...SJT...
LAT...LON 32179832 31869743 30189706 29889828 30429844 31599911
32179832
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN
Read morehttps://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md0389.html
0
18
Read More
|
SPC Apr 12, 2026 1730 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook
Webmaster
Yesterday at 05:29 PM
SPC Apr 12, 2026 1730 UTC Day 2 Convective OutlookSPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook 
Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1227 PM CDT Sun Apr 12 2026
Valid 131200Z - 141200Z
...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS
OF CENTRAL/EASTERN MINNESOTA INTO WESTERN/CENTRAL WISCONSIN...
...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are likely across the Upper Mississippi Valley
and Great Lakes region with potential for large to very large hail,
damaging wind, and tornadoes. A more conditional and isolated risk
for severe storms is possible across portions of the southern Plains
on Monday.
...Synopsis...
A southwesterly flow regime will continue from the southern Plains
to the Upper Midwest on Monday. Low-amplitude upper ridging will
move across the Upper Midwest during the day ahead of a shortwave
trough moving across the northern Plains. The shortwave will shift
east across the Great Lakes overnight. Meanwhile, an upper trough
from the northern Rockies to offshore the southern CA coast will
pivot eastward toward the Four Corners region. At the surface, low
pressure near the SD/NE border will develop east along the MN/IA
border to central WI. Lee troughing will persist across the Plains.
A dryline will extend southwest from the Mid-MO Valley into western
OK/TX, while a warm front extends from southern MN into
southern/central WI. These boundaries will become a focus for severe
thunderstorm development during the afternoon/evening.
...Upper Midwest...
Along and south of the surface warm front across MN into
southern/central WI, strong daytime heating will be occurring amid
dew points in the low to mid 60s. This will yield moderate to strong
instability with MLCAPE around 2000-3000 J/kg. A plume of steep low
to mid-level lapse rates will also impinge upon the region through
the afternoon. Capping will likely suppress thunderstorm activity
for much of the day as the shortwave upper ridge moves across the
region. By the late afternoon/early evening, a shortwave trough will
overspread the region with an increase in the low-level jet.
Thunderstorm activity is expected to develop, with initially
elevated supercells likely given strong deep layer shear and
thermodynamic profiles. These will be capable of large to very large
hail (some 2-3+ inches in diameter). Should any supercells be able
to anchor to the warm front and become surface based, the threat for
a tornado or two (possibly strong) will increase given large
clockwise curved hodographs indicative of favorable low-level shear.
An Enhanced Risk was included with this outlook driven by the hail
potential. Convection will spread eastward with time into MI,
continuing to pose a risk for hail overnight.
...Central/Southern Plains....
A conditional severe risk will extend further down the dryline into
the central/southern Plains for the afternoon/evening. Strong
daytime heating will yield very warm temperatures ahead of the
dryline but most convective temperatures are near or exceeding 90F.
Forecast soundings indicate strong capping in place across much of
the region through the afternoon with generally weak forcing for
ascent outside of the dryline circulation, which will likely inhibit
a more widespread severe risk. Nonetheless, moderate to strong
instability will overlap increasing deep layer shear as the
low-level jet increases through the evening. An isolated supercell
threat will be possible along the dryline, with greater confidence
along the Red River in northern TX/southwestern OK and further south
into Texas near the Rio Grande Valley. Should supercells develop,
the main risk will be for large to very large hail (some 2+ inches
in diameter).
..Thornton.. 04/12/2026
Read morehttps://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day2otlk_1730.html
0
18
Read More
|
SPC Apr 12, 2026 1630 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
Webmaster
Yesterday at 04:31 PM
SPC Apr 12, 2026 1630 UTC Day 1 Convective OutlookSPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook 
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1129 AM CDT Sun Apr 12 2026
Valid 121630Z - 131200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF
SOUTHWEST AND CENTRAL TX...
...SUMMARY...
Isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms are possible today into
evening mainly across parts of Texas and perhaps other nearby parts
of the southern Plains. More isolated severe storms may occur across
portions of the Upper Great Lakes and northern Rockies.
...Synopsis...
Recent satellite imagery shows a pair of phased shortwave troughs
over the Plains, one moving through the Dakotas and another moving
through KS/OK. Both of these waves are forecast to continue
northeastward through the day, with the northern wave reaching
northwestern Ontario and the southern wave reaching the Great Lakes
region. This evolution will take these waves east/northeast of the
higher low-level moisture, which will remain in a corridor from the
southern Plains northeastward into the Upper Midwest. Showers and
thunderstorms are anticipated throughout much of this corridor
today, with highest thunderstorm chances across central/east TX and
from the Upper Midwest into the Great Lakes.
Farther west, an upper low is slowly drifting eastward across
northern CA. Guidance suggests this eastward drift will continue
today, with several shortwave troughs rotating quickly through the
base of this system and ejecting across the Great Basin and northern
Rockies. Large-scale ascent and modest mid-level moisture associated
with these waves will combine with cold temperatures aloft and
associated buoyancy to support thunderstorms today from northern CA
across the northern Great Basin and northern Rockies, and into the
northern Plains.
...Southern/Central Plains...
Much of this region will be displaced south and west of any notable
large-scale forcing for ascent. This limited ascent, combined with
the showers and isolated thunderstorms currently ongoing across
central and east TX, complicates the overall forecast today, with
mesoscale factors likely contributing significantly to when and
where storms develop this afternoon and evening. General expectation
is for development along the southern and western periphery on the
ongoing storms (i.e. from southeast/south-central TX into southwest
TX) later this afternoon and this evening. This redevelopment will
be supported by a combination of moist advection, modest heating,
and limited low-level convergence. Moderate to strong buoyancy amid
moderate vertical shear could support supercells if the mode remains
discrete. However, the weakness in the mid-level flow suggests
storms may tend to cluster, a scenario that is supported by most CAM
guidance. Buoyancy and shear are still strong enough to support
rotating updrafts and large hail early in the convective cycle, but
the trends towards a messy convective mode could limit the
persistence and coverage of robust updrafts. Damaging gusts are
possible even with the clustered storm mode, especially given there
is some potential for slightly more organized bowing segments over
time.
Farther west, mid-level height rises/subsidence are anticipated
coincident with the dryline from central Kansas south-southwestward
across western Oklahoma and west/southwest Texas. The environment,
characterized by 1500 to 2000 J/kg of MLCAPE and 30 to 40 kt of
westerly deep-layer shear, is conditionally supportive of supercells
capable of all severe hazards. However, the previously mentioned
height rises and subsidence, combined with modest convective
inhibition, are generally expected to preclude thunderstorm
development. Even so, given the conditional risk, Marginal risk
probabilities will be maintained.
...Minnesota/Wisconsin...
Recent surface analysis places a low just west of FAR, with a warm
front extending southwestward across central/southeast MN and
southern WI. This low is forecast to move eastward today, while the
warm front expands northward. A narrow corridor of surface-based
buoyancy could develop from north-central MN into far northwest WI
as dewpoints increase in the upper 50s (perhaps even low 60s).
Thunderstorm initiation appears possible along the cold front within
this corridor, although veered low-level flow and northward/westward
displacement of the better forcing casts doubt to whether updrafts
will be maintained. Any storms that do mature within this warm
sector should become supercells capable of all severe hazards,
including large hail and tornadoes. However, low confidence in storm
development and maturity precludes higher probabilities with this
outlook.
...Northern Rockies...
Mid-level moisture will support another day of modest surface-based
buoyancy ahead of the shortwave trough mentioned in the synopsis.
Persistent 30-40 knot flow within the CAPE-bearing layer combined
with somewhat deep boundary-layer mixing will support strong to
severe downburst winds with the more robust convective cells, mainly
this afternoon through early evening.
..Mosier/Squitieri.. 04/12/2026
Read morehttps://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk_1630.html
0
17
Read More
|
|
Forums60
Topics768,850
Posts803,616
Members2,958
| |
Most Online17,963
Jan 15th, 2026
|
|
|
|
|
Copyright 1996 - 2026 by David Cottle. Designed by David Bate Jr. All Rights Reserved.
By using this forum, the user agrees not to transfer any data or technical information received under the agreement, to any other entity without the express approval of the AUS-CITY Forum Admins and/or authors of individual posts (Forum Admins and DoD/USSPACECOM for the analysis of satellite tracking data).
Two-line elements (TLE) and all other satellite data presented and distributed via this forum and e-mail lists of AUS-CITY are distributed with permission from DoD/USSTRATCOM.
Reprise Hosting
|
|
