No tropical cyclones as of Fri, 17 Jul 2026 18:24:10 GMT

Source: There are no tropical cyclones at this time.

SPC MD 1649
MD 1649 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY FOR ORTIONS OF SOUTHERN VIRGINIA...WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA...FAR NORTHEAST TENNESSEE...SOUTHEASTERN WEST VIRGINIA

Mesoscale Discussion 1649
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1256 PM CDT Sat Jul 18 2026

Areas affected...ortions of southern Virginia...western North
Carolina...far northeast Tennessee...southeastern West Virginia

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely 

Valid 181756Z - 181900Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

SUMMARY...Scattered to numerous thunderstorms will continue to
increase in intensity this afternoon with a risk for damaging wind
gusts.  Trends are being monitored and a Severe Thunderstorm Watch
is likely.

DISCUSSION...Thunderstorms continue to develop across the higher
terrain of WV, NC and VA at 1755z, and also along a confluence zone
extending from northern VA into western NC. Despite weak mid-level
lapse rates, diurnal heating of a moist boundary layer has
contributed to MLCAPE of 2000 to 3000 J/kg and low-level lapse rates
of 8.5 to 9 deg/C. In the presence of minimal CINH, storms should
continue to increase in coverage through the afternoon and move
generally east. Shear in the cloud-bearing layer will average 20-25
kts across northern portions of the discussion area and 15-20 kts
farther south, sufficient for updraft organization and a risk for
damaging wind gusts. 

Trends are being monitored and a Severe Thunderstorm Watch will be
needed shortly.

..Bunting/Thompson.. 07/18/2026

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...AKQ...MHX...LWX...RAH...RNK...RLX...GSP...MRX...

LAT...LON   36938187 37458132 37957998 38207909 38197842 37907734
            37557681 36927645 36077666 35487802 35237929 35118087
            35298160 35678207 36228209 36938187 

MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN

Read more
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md1649.html

SPC Severe Thunderstorm Watch 494 Status Reports
WW 0494 Status Updates

STATUS REPORT ON WW 494

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.

..WENDT..07/18/26

ATTN...WFO...BUF...BGM...


STATUS REPORT FOR WS 494 

SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS 

NYC003-007-009-011-013-015-017-023-025-029-037-051-053-055-063-
065-067-069-073-075-077-097-099-101-105-107-109-117-121-123-
181940-

NY 
.    NEW YORK COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

ALLEGANY             BROOME              CATTARAUGUS         
CAYUGA               CHAUTAUQUA          CHEMUNG             
CHENANGO             CORTLAND            DELAWARE            
ERIE                 GENESEE             LIVINGSTON          
MADISON              MONROE              NIAGARA             
ONEIDA               ONONDAGA            ONTARIO             
ORLEANS              OSWEGO              OTSEGO              
SCHUYLER             SENECA              STEUBEN             
SULLIVAN             TIOGA               TOMPKINS            
WAYNE                WYOMING             YATES               


PAC015-069-079-103-115-127-131-181940-

PA 
.    PENNSYLVANIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

BRADFORD             LACKAWANNA          LUZERNE             
PIKE                 SUSQUEHANNA         WAYNE               

Read more
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/ws0494.html

SPC Severe Thunderstorm Watch 494
WW 494 SEVERE TSTM NY PA LE LO 181735Z - 190100Z

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 494
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
135 PM EDT Sat Jul 18 2026

The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a

* Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of 
  Western and central New York
  Far northeast Pennsylvania
  Lake Erie
  Lake Ontario

* Effective this Saturday afternoon and evening from 135 PM until
  900 PM EDT.

* Primary threats include...
  Widespread damaging wind gusts to 70 mph likely
  Isolated large hail events to 1.5 inches in diameter possible
  A tornado or two possible

SUMMARY...Clusters of storms and line segments are expected to
spread east-southeastward across western and central New York
through this evening.  Damaging gusts of 60-70 mph will be the
primary severe threat, though embedded circulations could produce an
isolated tornado or two.  Isolated large hail of 1.1.5 inches in
diameter may also occur with the strongest storms.

The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 60
statute miles north and south of a line from 30 miles south
southeast of Utica NY to 50 miles northwest of Jamestown NY. For a
complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline
update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU4).

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are
favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area.
Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening
weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible
warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce
tornadoes.

&&

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 492...WW 493...

AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to
1.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A
few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector
30035.

...Thompson

Read more
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/ww0494.html

SPC Severe Thunderstorm Watch 493 Status Reports
WW 0493 Status Updates

STATUS REPORT ON WW 493

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.

..WENDT..07/18/26

ATTN...WFO...LOT...IWX...GRR...DTX...


STATUS REPORT FOR WS 493 

SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS 

ILC053-075-091-197-181940-

IL 
.    ILLINOIS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

FORD                 IROQUOIS            KANKAKEE            
WILL                 


INC001-003-007-009-017-033-039-049-053-069-073-075-085-087-089-
091-099-103-111-113-127-131-141-149-151-169-179-181-183-
181940-

IN 
.    INDIANA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

ADAMS                ALLEN               BENTON              
BLACKFORD            CASS                DE KALB             
ELKHART              FULTON              GRANT               
HUNTINGTON           JASPER              JAY                 
KOSCIUSKO            LAGRANGE            LAKE                
LA PORTE             MARSHALL            MIAMI               
NEWTON               NOBLE               PORTER              
PULASKI              ST. JOSEPH          STARKE              
STEUBEN              WABASH              WELLS               
WHITE                WHITLEY             

Read more
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/ws0493.html

SPC Severe Thunderstorm Watch 493
WW 493 SEVERE TSTM IL IN MI OH LE LH 181720Z - 190000Z

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 493
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
120 PM EDT Sat Jul 18 2026

The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a

* Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of 
  Extreme northeast Illinois
  Northern Indiana
  Southeast Lower Michigan
  Northwest Ohio
  Lake Erie
  Lake Huron

* Effective this Saturday afternoon and evening from 120 PM until
  800 PM EDT.

* Primary threats include...
  Scattered damaging wind gusts to 65 mph possible
  Isolated large hail events to 1.5 inches in diameter possible

SUMMARY...Bands of thunderstorms are forming along and immediately
ahead of a cold front, and storm coverage is expected to increase
through the afternoon.  The more intense storms will be capable of
producing damaging winds up to 65 mph and isolated large hail of
1-1.5 inches in diameter.

The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 55
statute miles north and south of a line from 20 miles south
southeast of Mount Clemens MI to 45 miles north of Danville IL. For
a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline
update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU3).

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are
favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area.
Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening
weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible
warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce
tornadoes.

&&

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 492...

AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to
1.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 55 knots. A
few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 550. Mean storm motion vector
31025.

...Thompson

Read more
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/ww0493.html

SPC Severe Thunderstorm Watch 492 Status Reports
WW 0492 Status Updates

STATUS REPORT ON WW 492

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.

..WENDT..07/18/26

ATTN...WFO...CLE...PBZ...CTP...


STATUS REPORT FOR WS 492 

SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS 

OHC005-007-013-019-029-031-033-035-043-055-059-063-067-075-077-
081-083-085-093-095-099-101-103-111-117-119-121-123-133-139-143-
147-151-153-155-157-169-173-175-181940-

OH 
.    OHIO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

ASHLAND              ASHTABULA           BELMONT             
CARROLL              COLUMBIANA          COSHOCTON           
CRAWFORD             CUYAHOGA            ERIE                
GEAUGA               GUERNSEY            HANCOCK             
HARRISON             HOLMES              HURON               
JEFFERSON            KNOX                LAKE                
LORAIN               LUCAS               MAHONING            
MARION               MEDINA              MONROE              
MORROW               MUSKINGUM           NOBLE               
OTTAWA               PORTAGE             RICHLAND            
SANDUSKY             SENECA              STARK               
SUMMIT               TRUMBULL            TUSCARAWAS          
WAYNE                WOOD                WYANDOT             


PAC001-003-005-007-009-013-019-021-023-027-031-033-035-037-039-
041-043-047-049-051-053-055-057-059-061-063-065-067-071-073-075-
081-083-085-087-093-097-099-105-107-109-111-113-117-119-121-123-
125-129-133-181940-

Read more
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/ws0492.html

SPC Severe Thunderstorm Watch 492
WW 492 SEVERE TSTM OH PA WV LE 181700Z - 190100Z

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 492
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
100 PM EDT Sat Jul 18 2026

The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a

* Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of 
  Northern and eastern Ohio
  Western and central Pennsylvania
  Far northern West Virginia
  Lake Erie

* Effective this Saturday afternoon and evening from 100 PM until
  900 PM EDT.

* Primary threats include...
  Widespread damaging wind gusts to 70 mph likely
  Isolated large hail events to 1.5 inches in diameter possible
  A tornado or two possible

SUMMARY...Thunderstorms will increase in coverage and intensity
through late afternoon/evening in multiple corridors/bands along and
well ahead of a cold front.  The storm environment will favor a mix
of multicell clusters, line segments and supercells with a primary
threat of wind damage.  Supercells close to the warm front could
pose the threat for a tornado or two in central Pennsylvania.

The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 70
statute miles north and south of a line from 45 miles southeast of
Williamsport PA to 50 miles west southwest of Akron OH. For a
complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline
update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU2).

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are
favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area.
Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening
weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible
warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce
tornadoes.

&&

AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to
1.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A
few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 550. Mean storm motion vector
29030.

...Thompson

Read more
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/ww0492.html

SPC Severe Thunderstorm Watch 496 Status Reports
WW 0496 Status Updates

STATUS FOR WATCH 0496 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET

Read more
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/ws0496.html

SPC Severe Thunderstorm Watch 496
WW 496 SEVERE TSTM DC MD NC VA WV CW 181815Z - 190100Z

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 496
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
215 PM EDT Sat Jul 18 2026

The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a

* Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of 
  District Of Columbia
  Much of Maryland
  North central and northeats North Carolina
  Central and eastern Virginia
  The eastern West Virginia Panhandle
  Coastal Waters

* Effective this Saturday afternoon and evening from 215 PM until
  900 PM EDT.

* Primary threats include...
  Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph likely
  Isolated large hail events to 1.5 inches in diameter possible

SUMMARY...Scattered thunderstorms have formed along and immediately
east of the higher terrain.  These storms will spread eastward
through late evening with the potential to produce wind damage and
isolated large hail.

The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 80
statute miles east and west of a line from 30 miles northeast of
Hagerstown MD to 20 miles southwest of Raleigh NC. For a complete
depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update
(WOUS64 KWNS WOU6).

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are
favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area.
Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening
weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible
warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce
tornadoes.

&&

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 492...WW 493...WW
494...WW 495...

AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to
1.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A
few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 550. Mean storm motion vector
27020.

...Thompson

Read more
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/ww0496.html

SPC Tornado Watch 495 Status Reports
WW 0495 Status Updates

STATUS FOR WATCH 0495 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET

Read more
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/ws0495.html

SPC Tornado Watch 495
WW 495 TORNADO DE MD NJ PA CW 181755Z - 190100Z

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Tornado Watch Number 495
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
155 PM EDT Sat Jul 18 2026

The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a

* Tornado Watch for portions of 
  Delaware
  Eastern Maryland
  New Jersey
  Southeast Pennsylvania
  Coastal Waters

* Effective this Saturday afternoon and evening from 155 PM until
  900 PM EDT.

* Primary threats include...
  A few tornadoes possible
  Widespread damaging wind gusts to 70 mph likely
  Isolated large hail events to 1.5 inches in diameter possible

SUMMARY...Scattered thunderstorms are forming east of the higher
terrain and will spread eastward into the watch area through this
evening.  The storm environment favors some supercell structures
with the potential to produce a few tornadoes in addition to wind
damage and isolated large hail.  Additional storms will likely
spread into this same area from the northwest this evening with a
primary threat of damaging winds.

The tornado watch area is approximately along and 65 statute miles
east and west of a line from 25 miles north of Wilkesbarre PA to 35
miles south of Dover DE. For a complete depiction of the watch see
the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU5).

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for
tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch
area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for
threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements
and possible warnings.

&&

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 492...WW 493...WW 494...

AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail
surface and aloft to 1.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind
gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 550. Mean
storm motion vector 28030.

...Thompson

Read more
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/ww0495.html

SPC Jul 18, 2026 1730 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook
SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook

Day 2 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1230 PM CDT Sat Jul 18 2026

Valid 191200Z - 201200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM SOUTHEAST
VIRGINIA INTO NORTH CAROLINA...AND OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms may pose a risk for
damaging wind gusts over the Carolinas and southeast Virginia, and
over the Tennessee Valley Sunday afternoon. Strong to severe storms
may also develop across parts of eastern Montana into North Dakota
and Minnesota from late afternoon into the overnight period.

...VA/Carolinas into the TN Valley...
An upper trough will lift out of the Northeast on Sunday, with a
trailing cold front extending from southern VA westward toward the
KY/TN border during the afternoon. Ahead of the front, low 70s F
dewpoints and heating will lead to 1500-2000 J/kg MLCAPE despite
warmer air aloft. Modest west to northwest flow aloft will persist,
with 500 mb speeds around 20 kt near the VA/NC portion of the front.
Farther west into TN and AL, winds will be weaker but more northerly
at 10-15 kt.

Storms are likely to develop along the length of the front by early
afternoon, moving in a southeasterly direction. The most favorable
combination of mean wind speeds and deep-layer shear will be from VA
into NC, and corridors of damaging wind gusts may occur as various
clusters form along the front.

Farther west, the very moist and uncapped air mass should lead to
southward-moving storm clusters developing from TN into northern GA
and AL through the afternoon. At least isolated damaging gusts
appear likely.

...Northern Plains...
An upper ridge over the area will break down as a shortwave trough
moves across MT and into the northern Plains late. Deep-layer shear
will increase through the period with 40-50 kt. Storms should
develop near the surface trough coincident with peak heating from ND
into southeast MT, and forecast soundings show elongated hodographs
and steep lapse rates favorable for a few supercells producing large
hail and locally severe gusts. The severe risk will continue
east/southeastward into SD and MN through the evening and overnight,
as storm coverage increases with a southwesterly low-level jet and
height falls. Damaging winds should be the main concern, though a
large hail threat may persist if cellular modes should persist.

..Jewell.. 07/18/2026

Read more
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day2otlk_1730.html

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook

Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1121 AM CDT Sat Jul 18 2026

Valid 181700Z - 191200Z

The forecast remains on track for elevated fire weather conditions
across portions of the Pacific Northwest and the northern High
Plains today. Current (16z) observations depict RH values quickly
plummeting beneath mostly clear skies -- apart from areas of dense
smoke in central-eastern OR/WA -- and a few wind gusts of 20+ mph in
terrain-favored areas. This afternoon, high temperatures across the
risk areas will approach 90-95 degrees (locally higher) yielding
better boundary layer mixing, allowing for RH values to decline to
less than 20% amid sustained winds of 10-15 mph (west-southwesterly
in the Northwest, southeasterly in the northern High Plains).
Despite several days of thunderstorms across OR/WA/ID, fuels remain
very dry with ERCs at or above the 90th percentile. Combined
meteorological conditions and a dry fuelscape will promote an
Elevated fire risk, especially in the Northwest where an abundance
of lightning strikes over the last several days has led to the
emergence of numerous wildfires.

..Elizalde-Garcia.. 07/18/2026

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1250 AM CDT Sat Jul 18 2026/

...Synopsis...
Along the northwestern periphery of an expansive upper ridge over
the West, a midlevel trough will advance eastward across BC and the
Northwest during the day. Within the base of the trough, strong
midlevel southwesterly flow will overspread WA, OR, northern CA, and
northwest NV. Associated downslope flow in the lee of the Cascades
and northern Sierra will aid in deep boundary-layer mixing into the
strengthening flow aloft. This will yield a broad area of 15 mph
sustained west-southwesterly surface winds (with higher gusts) amid
10-15 percent RH. Locally stronger surface winds can be expected in
terrain-favored/gap-flow areas through the Cascades. Given
dry/receptive fuels across region, elevated fire-weather conditions
are expected. 

Farther east, lee troughing over the northern High Plains will
promote 10-15 mph sustained easterly surface winds across parts of
southeastern WY during the afternoon. These winds, combined with
15-20 percent RH and dry fuels, will favor elevated fire-weather
conditions.

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...

Read more
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/fire_wx/fwdy1.html

SPC Jul 18, 2026 1630 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook

Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1120 AM CDT Sat Jul 18 2026

Valid 181630Z - 191200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH LATE EVENING FROM THE LOWER GREAT LAKES INTO THE
MID-ATLANTIC...

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS
AFTERNOON EVENING FOR PARTS OF WESTERN MONTANA...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are expected across portions of the Ohio Valley
and Lower Great Lakes into the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast this
afternoon and evening.  Damaging gusts will be the primary threat,
but a few tornadoes are possible, including perhaps a strong
tornado.

...Mid-Atlantic to the lower Great Lakes this afternoon/evening...
Ongoing convection across central PA/NY will continue to spread
eastward through early afternoon within a warm advection zone along
and north of a surface warm front.  The warm front will move
northward today in advance of a surface cyclone and associated
midlevel trough now in the vicinity of Lake Huron.  In the wake of
the ongoing convection, destabilization will occur as boundary-layer
dewpoints rise to near 70 F and surface temperatures into the  80s,
resulting in moderate buoyancy in the warm sector.  Destabilization
will occur earlier immediately south-through-west of the ongoing
storms across eastern PA/NJ, and a little later this afternoon into
central NY.

Additional thunderstorm development is beginning in southwest PA and
vicinity as of 16z and a continued increase in storms is expected
into early-mid afternoon along a cold front and along pre-frontal
confluence zones/lake-enhanced boundaries.  A mixed convective mode
(line segments and clusters) is expected, with embedded bowing
segments and a chance for pre-frontal supercells in PA/NY/NJ where
vertical shear and hodograph curvature will be larger along the warm
front.  Wind damage will be the primary severe threat with both the
frontal convection and pre-frontal storms, with a few tornadoes
possible with supercell structures and/or embedded mesovortices. 

...Northern Rockies late this afternoon/evening...
Scattered thunderstorm development is expected later this
afternoon/evening across western MT and vicinity, within the
northwest fringe of the midlevel ridge and monsoonal moisture plume.
 Midlevel flow will be somewhat enhanced to the immediate southeast
of a midlevel trough moving over southeast BC, thus some organized
storm structures will be possible with faster storm motions compared
to yesterday.  Occasional severe outflow gusts and large hail up to
1.5 inches in diameter will be the main threats.

..Thompson/Bunting.. 07/18/2026

Read more
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk_1630.html

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo.php?basin=cpac

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo.php?basin=epac

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo.php?basin=atlc

Cool your potatoes!

Chris Kresser on JRE dropped a big tip: bake or boil a potato, let it cool, and the resistant starch forms. It won’t spike your blood sugar like a hot one does.

Even better, the potato diet. Eat plain potatoes (cooled) for days and people drop half a pound a day on average. Spontaneous calorie drop + gut microbiome feast.

Cooling cooked potatoes creates resistant starch, which acts like fiber, it resists digestion in the small intestine, feeds beneficial gut bacteria, and lowers the glycemic response, helping with blood sugar control and satiety.

Simple, old-school hack that actually works.

I do this by making a potato salad with extra eggs and plain yogurt..it works.

Maximum Temperature: 23°C (74°F), Minimum Temperature: 11°C (52°F), Wind Direction: northerly, Wind Speed: 5mph, Visibility: Very Good, Pressure: 1025mb, Humidity: 47%, UV Risk: 7, Pollution: Low, Sunrise: 05:05 BST, Sunset: 21:24 BST

Source: Sunday: Sunny Intervals, Minimum Temperature: 11°C (52°F) Maximum Temperature: 23°C (74°F)

Maximum Temperature: 23°C (73°F), Minimum Temperature: 10°C (50°F), Wind Direction: north-easterly, Wind Speed: 7mph, Visibility: Good, Pressure: 1021mb, Humidity: 57%, UV Risk: 4, Pollution: Low, Sunrise: 05:04 BST, Sunset: 21:26 BST

Source: Saturday: Sunny Intervals, Minimum Temperature: 10°C (50°F) Maximum Temperature: 23°C (73°F)

Minimum Temperature: 13°C (56°F), Wind Direction: north-easterly, Wind Speed: 3mph, Visibility: Very Good, Pressure: 1020mb, Humidity: 70%, UV Risk: 0, Pollution: Low, Sunset: 21:27 BST

Source: Tonight: Clear Sky, Minimum Temperature: 13°C (56°F)

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 172312
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 PM PDT Fri Jul 17 2026

For the eastern and central North Pacific east of 180 longitude:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Elida, located well west-southwest of the southern tip of the
Baja California Peninsula.

Central and Western East Pacific (EP97):
A tropical wave located several hundred miles south-southwest of the
coast of southwestern Mexico continues to produce a large area of
disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Environmental conditions
appear conducive for development of this system, and a tropical
depression is expected to form over the weekend while it moves
west-northwestward to northwestward at 10 to 15 mph over the central
portion of the eastern Pacific.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent.

Eastern and Central East Pacific:
A broad area of low pressure is forecast to develop well to the
south of Mexico during the middle to latter part of next week. Some
gradual development of this system is possible thereafter while it
moves westward to west-northwestward across the eastern and central
portions of the eastern Pacific.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...30 percent.

$$
Forecaster Reinhart

Source: Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook

Temperature: 15°C (59°F), Wind Direction: Easterly, Wind Speed: 3mph, Humidity: 74%, Pressure: 1020mb, Rising, Visibility: Good

Source: Saturday - 00:00 BST: Clear Sky, 15°C (59°F)

Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Fri, 17 Jul 2026 21:21:56 GMT

Source: Tropical Storm Elida Graphics