Tropical Storm Amanda Discussion Number 6 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP012026 800 PM PDT Wed Jun 03 2026
Amanda has not apparently strengthened since earlier today. There are a couple of poorly-defined banding features over the northern semicircle, and a few cells of deep convection have been redeveloping near the center, likely a diurnal fluctuation. The current intensity estimate is held at 35 kt which is roughly in agreement with objective ADT estimates from UW-CIMSS. Hopefully, we will get a scatterometer pass over the system overnight to help in assessing the strength of the cyclone.
An AMSR2 microwave image and recent visible imagery indicate that the storm center is a little north of the previously estimated track. Adjusting the working best track over the past 12 hours yields an initial motion estimate of 300/8 kt. A weak mid-level ridge to the northeast of Amanda should result in a continued generally west-northwestward track during the next 36-48 hours. Later, a narrow ridge is forecast to develop to the west and northwest of the cyclone, which should induce a leftward turn and a slow southwestward motion in around 3 days. The official forecast is only slightly north of the previous one during the early part of the period, and very close to the previous NHC track later on. This is a blend of the latest Google DeepMind and corrected consensus forecast solutions.
Amanda should remain in an environment marginally conducive for strengthening for the next day or two with warm SSTs and moderate easterly shear over the system. However, the cyclone is likely to encounter an increasingly dry and more stable air mass in a few days which should cause a weakening trend to commence in the 48 hour time frame. The official forecast allows for some strengthening through tomorrow, with weakening over the weekend resulting in the system degenerating into a remnant low during the latter part of the period. This NHC forecast is on the high side of the intensity model guidance.
Tropical Storm Amanda Discussion Number 6 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP012026 800 PM PDT Wed Jun 03 2026
Amanda has not apparently strengthened since earlier today. There are a couple of poorly-defined banding features over the northern semicircle, and a few cells of deep convection have been redeveloping near the center, likely a diurnal fluctuation. The current intensity estimate is held at 35 kt which is roughly in agreement with objective ADT estimates from UW-CIMSS. Hopefully, we will get a scatterometer pass over the system overnight to help in assessing the strength of the cyclone.
An AMSR2 microwave image and recent visible imagery indicate that the storm center is a little north of the previously estimated track. Adjusting the working best track over the past 12 hours yields an initial motion estimate of 300/8 kt. A weak mid-level ridge to the northeast of Amanda should result in a continued generally west-northwestward track during the next 36-48 hours. Later, a narrow ridge is forecast to develop to the west and northwest of the cyclone, which should induce a leftward turn and a slow southwestward motion in around 3 days. The official forecast is only slightly north of the previous one during the early part of the period, and very close to the previous NHC track later on. This is a blend of the latest Google DeepMind and corrected consensus forecast solutions.
Amanda should remain in an environment marginally conducive for strengthening for the next day or two with warm SSTs and moderate easterly shear over the system. However, the cyclone is likely to encounter an increasingly dry and more stable air mass in a few days which should cause a weakening trend to commence in the 48 hour time frame. The official forecast allows for some strengthening through tomorrow, with weakening over the weekend resulting in the system degenerating into a remnant low during the latter part of the period. This NHC forecast is on the high side of the intensity model guidance.
TROPICAL STORM AMANDA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 6 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP012026 0300 UTC THU JUN 04 2026
AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM AMANDA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 11.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 129.3 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H.
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.
FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE
BULLETIN Tropical Storm Amanda Advisory Number 6 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP012026 800 PM PDT Wed Jun 03 2026
...AMANDA SHOWING LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH...
SUMMARY OF 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...11.4N 129.3W ABOUT 1505 MI...2420 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 800 PM PDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Amanda was located near latitude 11.4 North, longitude 129.3 West. Amanda is moving toward the west-northwest near 9 mph (15 km/h) and this general motion is expected to continue for the next couple of days. A turn toward the west and southwest at a slower forward speed is forecast this weekend.
Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Some strengthening is forecast during the next day or two. A weakening trend is forecast to begin this weekend.
Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km) from the center.
The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches).
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None.
NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 200 AM PDT.
...AMANDA SHOWING LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH... As of 8:00 PM PDT Wed Jun 03 the center of Amanda was located near 11.4, -129.3 with movement WNW at 9 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1006 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.
TROPICAL STORM AMANDA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 6 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP012026 0300 UTC THU JUN 04 2026
AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM AMANDA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 11.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 129.3 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H.
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.
FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE
BULLETIN Tropical Storm Amanda Advisory Number 6 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP012026 800 PM PDT Wed Jun 03 2026
...AMANDA SHOWING LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH...
SUMMARY OF 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...11.4N 129.3W ABOUT 1505 MI...2420 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 800 PM PDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Amanda was located near latitude 11.4 North, longitude 129.3 West. Amanda is moving toward the west-northwest near 9 mph (15 km/h) and this general motion is expected to continue for the next couple of days. A turn toward the west and southwest at a slower forward speed is forecast this weekend.
Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Some strengthening is forecast during the next day or two. A weakening trend is forecast to begin this weekend.
Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km) from the center.
The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches).
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None.
NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 200 AM PDT.
...AMANDA SHOWING LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH... As of 8:00 PM PDT Wed Jun 03 the center of Amanda was located near 11.4, -129.3 with movement WNW at 9 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1006 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.
TROPICAL STORM AMANDA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 6 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP012026 0300 UTC THU JUN 04 2026
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.4N 129.3W AT 04/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 8 KT
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT....... 50NE 40SE 40SW 60NW. 4 M SEAS.... 0NE 0SE 0SW 30NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.4N 129.3W AT 04/0300Z AT 04/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 11.2N 128.9W
FORECAST VALID 04/1200Z 12.2N 130.1W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 40SE 40SW 60NW.
FORECAST VALID 05/0000Z 13.0N 131.4W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 40SE 40SW 60NW.
FORECAST VALID 05/1200Z 13.4N 132.6W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 40SE 40SW 50NW.
FORECAST VALID 06/0000Z 13.5N 133.4W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW.
FORECAST VALID 06/1200Z 13.1N 134.1W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 40NW.
FORECAST VALID 07/0000Z 12.8N 134.4W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY
OUTLOOK VALID 08/0000Z 12.2N 135.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.
OUTLOOK VALID 09/0000Z 11.7N 136.3W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 11.4N 129.3W
TROPICAL STORM AMANDA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 6 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP012026 0300 UTC THU JUN 04 2026
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.4N 129.3W AT 04/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 8 KT
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT....... 50NE 40SE 40SW 60NW. 4 M SEAS.... 0NE 0SE 0SW 30NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.4N 129.3W AT 04/0300Z AT 04/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 11.2N 128.9W
FORECAST VALID 04/1200Z 12.2N 130.1W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 40SE 40SW 60NW.
FORECAST VALID 05/0000Z 13.0N 131.4W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 40SE 40SW 60NW.
FORECAST VALID 05/1200Z 13.4N 132.6W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 40SE 40SW 50NW.
FORECAST VALID 06/0000Z 13.5N 133.4W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW.
FORECAST VALID 06/1200Z 13.1N 134.1W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 40NW.
FORECAST VALID 07/0000Z 12.8N 134.4W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY
OUTLOOK VALID 08/0000Z 12.2N 135.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.
OUTLOOK VALID 09/0000Z 11.7N 136.3W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 11.4N 129.3W
Analyzing footage of a strange entity outside its cave. Zooming in close to see what its face looks like! It's not what I expected! Is it an alien, a clown, or something else? #cryptids #alien #vampire #demon
Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 500 PM PDT Wed Jun 3 2026
For the eastern and central North Pacific east of 180 longitude:
Active Systems: The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical Storm Amanda, located well southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California Peninsula.
Eastern East Pacific: An area of low pressure is forecast to form offshore of Central America and southern Mexico late this week. Environmental conditions appear conducive for development of this system thereafter, and a tropical depression could form late this weekend or early next week while it moves slowly northwestward or northward. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...medium...50 percent.
Offshore Southern and Southwestern Mexico: Another area of low pressure is forecast to form offshore of southern and southwestern Mexico by this weekend. Environmental conditions also appear conducive for gradual development of this system into early next week, and a tropical depression could form during this time as it moves slowly northward or northwestward, near the coast of southern Mexico. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...medium...50 percent.
Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 500 PM PDT Wed Jun 3 2026
For the eastern and central North Pacific east of 180 longitude:
Active Systems: The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical Storm Amanda, located well southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California Peninsula.
Eastern East Pacific: An area of low pressure is forecast to form offshore of Central America and southern Mexico late this week. Environmental conditions appear conducive for development of this system thereafter, and a tropical depression could form late this weekend or early next week while it moves slowly northwestward or northward. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...medium...50 percent.
Offshore Southern and Southwestern Mexico: Another area of low pressure is forecast to form offshore of southern and southwestern Mexico by this weekend. Environmental conditions also appear conducive for gradual development of this system into early next week, and a tropical depression could form during this time as it moves slowly northward or northwestward, near the coast of southern Mexico. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...medium...50 percent.
Russell Wilson, who accumulated 10 Pro Bowls, 46,966 passing yards and one Super Bowl title with the Seattle Seahawks, announced his retirement from the NFL after 14 seasons.
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