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737
ABPZ20 KNHC 101806
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM PDT Wed Jun 10 2026

For the eastern and central North Pacific east of 180 longitude:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on recently
downgraded Tropical Storm Cristina, located just south of El
Salvador.

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 7 days.

$$
Forecaster Pasch

Source: Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook

Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Wed, 10 Jun 2026 15:22:22 GMT

Source: Tropical Depression Cristina Graphics

Issued at 1200 PM CST Wed Jun 10 2026

000
WTPZ33 KNHC 101736
TCPEP3
 
BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Cristina Intermediate Advisory Number 10A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP032026
1200 PM CST Wed Jun 10 2026
 
...SATELLITE WIND DATA INDICATE CRISTINA HAS WEAKENED TO A TROPICAL 
DEPRESSION...
...HEAVY RAINS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AMERICA
THROUGH THURSDAY...
 
 
SUMMARY OF 1200 PM CST...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...12.5N 88.8W
ABOUT 85 MI...140 KM SSE OF SAN SALVADOR EL SALVADOR
ABOUT 165 MI...265 KM SE OF PUERTO SAN JOSE GUATEMALA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...STATIONARY
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES
 
 
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
 
None.
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
 
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* The Pacific coast from the Honduras/Nicaragua border to
the Guatemala/El Salvador border
 
A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.
 
Interests along the Pacific coast of Guatemala should monitor the
progress of Cristina.
 
For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.
 
 
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1200 PM CST (1800 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression
Cristina was located near latitude 12.5 North, longitude 88.8 West.
The depression is currently nearly stationary.  A motion toward the
northwest is expected to begin this afternoon, with a continued 
northwestward motion tonight and on Thursday. On the forecast 
track, Cristina should linger offshore of El Salvador, Honduras, 
and Nicaragua this afternoon and then move near or over the coast 
of El Salvador tonight into Thursday.
 
Recent satellite wind data indicate that the maximum sustained 
winds are now near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Although 
Cristina has weakened, conditions appear conducive for development, 
and the cyclone could become a tropical storm again before making 
landfall in Central America.
 
The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches).
 
 
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Cristina can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP3 and WMO header WTPZ43 KNHC.
 
RAINFALL: Tropical Depression Cristina is expected to produce 
rainfall totals of 4 to 8 inches, with maximum totals of 12 inches 
possible across coastal portions Nicaragua, Honduras, El Salvador, 
and Guatemala through Thursday night. This rainfall may produce
life-threatening flooding and mudslides, especially in areas of
steep terrain.
 
For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with
Tropical Depression Cristina, please see the National Weather 
Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic available at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep3.shtml?rainqpf
 
STORM SURGE: Coastal flooding from storm surge is possible in areas
of onshore winds. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by
large and damaging waves.
 
WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to spread along
portions of the coast within the warning area today and tonight.
 
 
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 300 PM CST.
 
$$
Forecaster Beven

Source: Tropical Depression Cristina Public Advisory Number 10a

...SATELLITE WIND DATA INDICATE CRISTINA HAS WEAKENED TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION... ...HEAVY RAINS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AMERICA THROUGH THURSDAY... As of 12:00 PM CST Wed Jun 10 the center of Cristina was located near 12.5, -88.8 with movement at mph. The minimum central pressure was 1007 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.

Source: Summary for Tropical Depression Cristina (EP3/EP032026)

000
ABNT20 KNHC 101731
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Wed Jun 10 2026

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America:

Bay of Campeche:
A broad area of low pressure could form over the Bay of Campeche
late this week from a westward-moving tropical wave. Conditions
are not expected to be favorable for significant development, and
the system should move inland over eastern Mexico late this weekend.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...10 percent.

$$
Forecaster Pasch/Katz

Source: Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook

Issued at 900 AM CST Wed Jun 10 2026

000
WTPZ43 KNHC 101435
TCDEP3
 
Tropical Storm Cristina Discussion Number  10
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP032026
900 AM CST Wed Jun 10 2026

Cristina is rather disorganized at the moment. The low-level center 
that has been tracked previously has become hard to locate even 
with the aid of a recent microwave pass. The microwave data 
suggests the possibility that a second vorticity center is forming 
to the southwest close to a convective band. However, 1-min GOES 
data suggests this center is a low- to mid-level feature and not a 
surface center. The advisory position is based primarily on 
continuity from the previous advisory, and the initial intensity 
is held at 35 kt based on the various satellite intensity 
estimates. Upcoming SAR and scatterometer passes will hopefully 
bring some clarity as to the center location and structure.

The initial motion is a rather uncertain 270/3. However, the track 
guidance is in good agreement that Cristina should turn 
northwestward during the next 12 h as a low- to mid-level ridge 
builds to the northeast of the storm. This motion should bring the 
storm to the coast of Central America in around 24 h and inland 
thereafter.  The new forecast track is a little to the left of the 
previous track based mainly on the initial position, and additional 
adjustments to the track may be necessary depending on what the 
upcoming satellite wind data shows.

Cristina is in a favorable environment of light shear and very warm 
water that should allow some strengthening as suggested by the 
statistical-dynamical models. However, proximity to land and the 
current disorganization are negative factors, and the dynamical 
models forecast little change in strength before landfall. The new 
intensity forecast will show a little strengthening during the next 
12 h. After that, the expected path near and over Central America 
should lead to the cyclone's demise by 48 h.
 
 
Key Messages:
 
1. Heavy rainfall associated with Tropical Storm Cristina will 
impact coastal portions of Central America through Thursday. This 
rainfall may produce life-threatening flooding and mudslides, 
especially in areas of steep terrain.
 
2. Tropical storm conditions, especially in gusts, are expected to
impact portions of the coasts of El Salvador and Honduras today 
and tonight.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  10/1500Z 12.5N  88.8W   35 KT  40 MPH
 12H  11/0000Z 12.9N  89.3W   40 KT  45 MPH
 24H  11/1200Z 13.8N  89.9W   35 KT  40 MPH...INLAND
 36H  12/0000Z 15.2N  90.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
 48H  12/1200Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
Forecaster Beven

Source: Tropical Storm Cristina Forecast Discussion Number 10

Issued at 1500 UTC WED JUN 10 2026

000
FOPZ13 KNHC 101434
PWSEP3
                                                                    
TROPICAL STORM CRISTINA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER  10         
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP032026               
1500 UTC WED JUN 10 2026                                            
                                                                    
AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM CRISTINA WAS LOCATED NEAR     
LATITUDE 12.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 88.8 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED    
WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H.                               
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   PACIFIC  DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME     
                                                                    
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS                 
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...                                  
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...                                  
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...                                  
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE               
    OP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)               
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        12Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT                       
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.             
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY              
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.                 
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -   
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
P SAN JOSE     34  X   2( 2)   3( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)
 
SAN SALVADOR   34  4  11(15)   X(15)   X(15)   X(15)   X(15)   X(15)
 
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER BEVEN

Source: Tropical Storm Cristina Wind Speed Probabilities Number 10

Issued at 1500 UTC WED JUN 10 2026

000
WTPZ23 KNHC 101434
TCMEP3
 
TROPICAL STORM CRISTINA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  10
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP032026
1500 UTC WED JUN 10 2026
 
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.5N  88.8W AT 10/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  30 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT   3 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  35 KT WITH GUSTS TO  45 KT.
34 KT.......  0NE  30SE  60SW   0NW.
4 M SEAS....  0NE  45SE  45SW   0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.5N  88.8W AT 10/1500Z
AT 10/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 12.4N  88.7W
 
FORECAST VALID 11/0000Z 12.9N  89.3W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT... 30NE  30SE  40SW   0NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 11/1200Z 13.8N  89.9W...INLAND
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT... 20NE  20SE  20SW   0NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 12/0000Z 15.2N  90.5W...POST-TROP/INLAND
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.
 
FORECAST VALID 12/1200Z...DISSIPATED
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 12.5N  88.8W
 
INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT33 KNHC/MIATCPEP3...AT 10/1800Z
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 10/2100Z
 
$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

Source: Tropical Storm Cristina Forecast Advisory Number 10

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