No tropical cyclones as of Sat, 13 Sep 2025 17:30:05 GMT

Source: There are no tropical cyclones at this time.

No tropical cyclones as of Sat, 13 Sep 2025 01:50:00 GMT

Source: There are no tropical cyclones at this time.

Maximum Temperature: 15°C (59°F), Minimum Temperature: 12°C (53°F), Wind Direction: South Westerly, Wind Speed: 18mph, Visibility: Moderate, Pressure: 998mb, Humidity: 78%, UV Risk: 1, Pollution: Low, Sunrise: 06:42 BST, Sunset: 19:26 BST

Source: Monday: Thundery Showers, Minimum Temperature: 12°C (53°F) Maximum Temperature: 15°C (59°F)

Maximum Temperature: 15°C (59°F), Minimum Temperature: 12°C (54°F), Wind Direction: Southerly, Wind Speed: 12mph, Visibility: Moderate, Pressure: 1006mb, Humidity: 87%, UV Risk: 3, Pollution: Low, Sunrise: 06:40 BST, Sunset: 19:28 BST

Source: Sunday: Heavy Rain, Minimum Temperature: 12°C (54°F) Maximum Temperature: 15°C (59°F)

Minimum Temperature: 9°C (48°F), Wind Direction: South Westerly, Wind Speed: 8mph, Visibility: Moderate, Pressure: 1008mb, Humidity: 88%, UV Risk: 2, Pollution: Low, Sunset: 19:31 BST

Source: Tonight: Light Rain, Minimum Temperature: 9°C (48°F)

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 131200
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 AM PDT Sat Sep 13 2025

For the eastern and central North Pacific east of 180 longitude:

Off the coast of Southwestern Mexico:
An area of low pressure could develop well offshore of the coast of
southern or southwestern Mexico early next week. Environmental
conditions are expected to be conducive for gradual development
thereafter, as the low tracks westward to west-northwestward around
10 to 15 mph.
*Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
*Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.

South of Baja California Peninsula:
An area of low pressure could develop south of the Baja California
Peninsula over the next day or two. Environmental conditions are
expected to be conducive for gradual development thereafter, as the
low tracks slowly westward.
*Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
*Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.

South and Southeast of the Hawaiian Islands:
An area of low pressure well southeast of the Hawaiian Islands is
producing a large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms.
Environmental conditions appear conducive for some gradual
development of this system as it moves westward or
west-northwestward at around 10 mph.
*Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
*Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.

$$
Forecaster Hogsett/Berg

Source: Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 122347
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 PM PDT Fri Sep 12 2025

For the eastern and central North Pacific east of 180 longitude:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Mario, located just offshore of the coast of southwestern
Mexico.

Central East Pacific:
An area of low pressure could develop well offshore of the coast of
southern or southwestern Mexico early next week. Environmental
conditions are expected to be conducive for gradual development
thereafter, as the low tracks westward to west-northwestward around
10 to 15 mph.
*Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
*Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.

$$
Forecaster Jelsema/Kelly

Source: Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Fri, 12 Sep 2025 23:37:03 GMT






Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Fri, 12 Sep 2025 21:22:11 GMT

Source: Tropical Storm Mario Graphics

Issued at 600 PM CST Fri Sep 12 2025

000
WTPZ33 KNHC 122331
TCPEP3
 
BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Mario Intermediate Advisory Number 5A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP132025
600 PM CST Fri Sep 12 2025
 
...MARIO STILL MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD NEAR THE SOUTHWESTERN 
COAST OF MAINLAND MEXICO...
 
 
SUMMARY OF 600 PM CST...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.8N 103.8W
ABOUT 90 MI...145 KM SSE OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
ABOUT 105 MI...170 KM W OF LAZARO CARDENAS MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES
 
 
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
 
None.
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
 
A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Lazaro Cardenas to Punta San Telmo
 
A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, in this case within 6 hours.
 
Interests elsewhere along the coast of southwestern Mexico should
monitor the progress of Mario.
 
For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.
 
 
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 600 PM CST (0000 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Mario was
located near latitude 17.8 North, longitude 103.8 West. Mario is
moving toward the west-northwest near 16 mph (26 km/h), and this
motion is expected to continue for the next several hours.  A slower
motion toward the west-northwest is forecast later tonight through 
the weekend.  On the forecast track, the center of Mario should move
roughly parallel to the coast of Mexico through tonight, and then
begin to move farther away from the coast on Saturday.
 
Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher
gusts. Some strengthening is forecast during the next couple of 
days.
 
Mario is a tiny tropical storm, and tropical-storm-force winds
extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) to the north of the center.
 
The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches).
 
 
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL:  RAINFALL:  Tropical Storm Mario will lead to additional
rainfall of 1 to 3 inches, with locally higher amounts, for
especially Jalisco through Saturday morning. This brings a risk of
flash flooding, especially in areas of higher terrain.
 
For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall and flash flooding
associated with Mario, please see the National Weather Service Storm
Total Rainfall Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep3.shtml?rainqpf
 
WIND:  Tropical storm conditions are possible along portions of the
coast of Michoacan for the next few hours.  Gusty winds are 
possible elsewhere along coastal portions of the states of 
Guerrero, Michoacan, and Colima through tonight.
 
 
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 900 PM CST.
 
$$
Forecaster Beven

Source: Tropical Storm Mario Public Advisory Number 5a

...MARIO STILL MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD NEAR THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MAINLAND MEXICO... As of 6:00 PM CST Fri Sep 12 the center of Mario was located near 17.8, -103.8 with movement WNW at 16 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1006 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.

Source: Summary for Tropical Storm Mario (EP3/EP132025)

530
ABNT20 KNHC 122319
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 PM EDT Fri Sep 12 2025

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America:

Eastern and Central Tropical Atlantic:
A tropical wave located between the west coast of Africa and Cabo
Verde Islands, is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms
over the far eastern Atlantic. Dry and stable air will likely limit
this system's development over the next few days, but a tropical
depression could form by the middle to latter part of next week
while moving west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph over the central
tropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...40 percent.

$$
Forecaster Kelly

Source: Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook

Issued at 300 PM CST Fri Sep 12 2025

000
WTPZ43 KNHC 122034
TCDEP3
 
Tropical Storm Mario Discussion Number   5
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP132025
300 PM CST Fri Sep 12 2025
 
Mario continues to parallel the coast of southwestern Mexico.  An 
afternoon scatterometer pass showed that Mario is still located just 
off the coast, with deep convection periodically forming near the 
low-level center and being sheared off to the west.  Peak wind 
vectors from the ASCAT pass were only 25 kt, however, the instrument 
is likely unable to resolve Mario's peak winds due to the small size 
of the storm.  The initial intensity is held at 35 kt, closest to 
the TAFB Dvorak estimate of T2.5.

Numerical models are still struggling to forecast Mario due to the 
storm's tiny circulation and proximity to the Mexican coastline.  
The European global model, Google DeepMind, and their ensembles 
generally show the system either moving inland or opening into a 
trough just offshore later today.  Of the systems that maintain 
Mario for longer into the forecast period, the intensity guidance 
envelope has trended downward this cycle.  Moderate vertical wind 
shear is expected to plague the system for the next day or so, which 
should limit any strengthening.  If Mario can survive this stage, 
the environmental conditions are forecast to briefly become more 
conducive for some gradual intensification early next week.  By the 
end of the forecast period, cool sea surface temperatures and 
increasing shear should quickly weaken and dissipate the small 
system.  Based on the latest guidance, the NHC intensity forecast 
now shows Mario becoming a post-tropical cyclone by day 4 and 
dissipating by day 5.
 
Mario continues to move west-northwestward at an estimated 12 kt, 
moving roughly parallel to the coast of Mexico.  A mid-level ridge 
to the north is expected to keep Mario on a west-northwestward 
trajectory, but at a slower forward motion, through the end of the 
forecast period.  The models that maintain Mario's circulation are 
general well clustered, and only minor adjustments were made to the 
NHC track forecast.
 
Given Mario's very close proximity to the coast of Mexico, there is 
a Tropical Storm Watch in effect for a small segment of the coast 
from Lazaro Cardenas to Punta San Telmo.
 
 
Key Messages:
1. Heavy rainfall associated with Tropical Storm Mario will impact 
Jalisco and nearby areas into Saturday morning, which could result 
in flash flooding, particularly in areas of higher terrain.
 
2. Tropical storm conditions are possible along portions of the
coast of Michoacan today while Mario moves roughly parallel to the
southwestern coast of Mexico.  Gusty winds are possible elsewhere
along the coasts of western Guerrero, Michoacan, and Colima through
tonight.  Interests in these areas should continue to monitor the
progress of Mario.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  12/2100Z 17.4N 102.9W   35 KT  40 MPH
 12H  13/0600Z 17.8N 104.4W   35 KT  40 MPH
 24H  13/1800Z 18.5N 106.1W   35 KT  40 MPH
 36H  14/0600Z 19.0N 107.4W   40 KT  45 MPH
 48H  14/1800Z 19.5N 109.0W   45 KT  50 MPH
 60H  15/0600Z 19.9N 110.3W   50 KT  60 MPH
 72H  15/1800Z 20.3N 111.8W   50 KT  60 MPH
 96H  16/1800Z 21.3N 114.5W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
120H  17/1800Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
Forecaster Bucci

Source: Tropical Storm Mario Forecast Discussion Number 5

Issued at 2100 UTC FRI SEP 12 2025

000
FOPZ13 KNHC 122033
PWSEP3
                                                                    
TROPICAL STORM MARIO WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER   5            
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP132025               
2100 UTC FRI SEP 12 2025                                            
                                                                    
AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM MARIO WAS LOCATED NEAR        
LATITUDE 17.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 102.9 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED   
WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H.                               
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   PACIFIC  DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME     
                                                                    
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS                 
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...                                  
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...                                  
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...                                  
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE               
    OP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)               
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        18Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT                       
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.             
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY              
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.                 
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -   
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
CABO SAN LUCAS 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   1( 4)   X( 4)
 
SAN JOSE CABO  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
20N 110W       34  X   X( X)   1( 1)  11(12)  27(39)   X(39)   X(39)
20N 110W       50  X   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   7( 9)   X( 9)   X( 9)
20N 110W       64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)
 
ISLA SOCORRO   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)  12(15)   X(15)   X(15)
 
ISLA CLARION   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)
 
20N 115W       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   5( 8)   X( 8)
 
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER BUCCI

Source: Tropical Storm Mario Wind Speed Probabilities Number 5

Issued at 2100 UTC FRI SEP 12 2025

000
WTPZ23 KNHC 122032
TCMEP3
 
TROPICAL STORM MARIO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   5
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP132025
2100 UTC FRI SEP 12 2025
 
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.4N 102.9W AT 12/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  20 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT  12 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  35 KT WITH GUSTS TO  45 KT.
34 KT.......  0NE   0SE   0SW  20NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.4N 102.9W AT 12/2100Z
AT 12/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.3N 102.4W
 
FORECAST VALID 13/0600Z 17.8N 104.4W
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT... 20NE   0SE   0SW  20NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 13/1800Z 18.5N 106.1W
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT... 20NE   0SE   0SW  20NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 14/0600Z 19.0N 107.4W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT... 20NE  20SE   0SW  20NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 14/1800Z 19.5N 109.0W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT... 30NE  30SE  20SW  20NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 15/0600Z 19.9N 110.3W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE   0SE   0SW   0NW.
34 KT... 50NE  40SE  30SW  40NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 15/1800Z 20.3N 111.8W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE   0SE   0SW  20NW.
34 KT... 50NE  40SE  40SW  50NW.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 16/1800Z 21.3N 114.5W...POST-TROPICAL
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT... 50NE   0SE   0SW  40NW.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 17/1800Z...DISSIPATED
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.4N 102.9W
 
INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT33 KNHC/MIATCPEP3...AT 13/0000Z
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 13/0300Z
 
$$
FORECASTER BUCCI

Source: Tropical Storm Mario Forecast Advisory Number 5

The U.S. Naval Academy provided the following statement:On Thursday, September 11 at approximately


Source: Update on U.S. Naval Academy Security Concern

Labour MP says PM not up to the job, as Mandelson backlash grows
No 10 say Peter Mandelson was sacked as the UK's ambassador after new information about his links to Jeffrey Epstein came to light.
https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cx238pwwqg6o?at_medium=RSS&at_campaign=rss

Epstein paid for Mandelson's travel in 2003, documents show
Mandelson was sacked as the UK's ambassador to the US over his links to the late convicted paedophile.
https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/crrjd2kxw2lo?at_medium=RSS&at_campaign=rss

MP behind assisted dying law 'uncomfortable' with May's suicide claim
The House of Lords begins its scrutiny of the Terminally Ill Adults Bill, which was passed by MPs.
https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cly0d1vg0e2o?at_medium=RSS&at_campaign=rss

The U.S. 7th Fleet flagship USS Blue Ridge (LCC 19) held a change of command ceremony Sept. 5.

 

Source: USS Blue Ridge Changes Command

HIGH NORTH (Sept. 11, 2025) –Arleigh Burke-class guided-missile destroyer USS Mahan (DDG 72) arrived in Bergen, Norway, for a scheduled port visit Sept. 11, 2025.

Source: USS Mahan (DDG 72) Arrives in Bergen

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Source: [url=https://www.fark.com/comments/13809296?utm_source=feed&utm_medium=comments&utm_campaign=fark]Nick Fuentes shocked to learn that actions have consequences, more at 11 [Facepalm][/url]

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Source: [url=https://www.fark.com/comments/13809094?utm_source=feed&utm_medium=comments&utm_campaign=fark]Today's Slatesplanation: Why Stinky is suddenly bragging to anybody who will listen about how many guns he's confiscated. Because that's what fascists do? [Obvious][/url]

New Troubles legacy agreement 'very close', says Irish PM
Taoiseach Micheál Martin described a meeting with Sir Keir Starmer, which took place on Friday, as "warm and constructive".
https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/ckgznxg044go?at_medium=RSS&at_campaign=rss

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Source: [url=https://www.fark.com/comments/13809170?utm_source=feed&utm_medium=comments&utm_campaign=fark]Headlines like this are why nobody has any faith in mass media anymore, NBC [Stupid][/url]

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Source: [url=https://www.fark.com/comments/13809114?utm_source=feed&utm_medium=comments&utm_campaign=fark]No, Bluesky hasn't been celebrating the death of someone who helped create the world that killed him. Which raises the question: Why not? [Obvious][/url]