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World Earthquake Report for Monday, 22 June 2026
• Moderate mag. 4.9 earthquake - Fiji Islands Region on Monday, Jun 22, 2026,...
• Moderate mag. 4.1 earthquake - South Pacific Ocean, 491 km northeast of Tau...
• Volcano earthquake report for Monday, 22 Jun 2026
• Moderate mag. 4.6 earthquake - 42 km south of Tocopilla, Provincia de Tocop...
• Moderate mag. 4.9 earthquake - South Pacific Ocean, 277 km south of Nuku'al...
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Re: How Many Steps You Need a Day!!
Alisa
1 hour ago
Joe Rogan gives the best advice for anyone out of shape who wants to get serious: Don’t try to make up for years of neglect in a few weeks.
Start stupidly light - 20 minutes, 5 push-ups, 5 squats, 5 sit-ups. Take breaks. Build slowly. Use the sauna and cold plunge for recovery. If you jump straight into what fit people do, you’ll wreck your body and quit.
Consistency beats intensity when you’re starting from zero.
Research on exercise progression (including the popular “10% rule”) shows that gradually increasing training volume by no more than 10% per week dramatically reduces injury risk in beginners and previously sedentary people, while still producing significant strength and fitness gains.
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SPC MD 1255
Webmaster
1 hour ago
SPC MD 1255MD 1255 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY FOR EAST-CENTRAL TO SOUTHEAST COLORADO 
Mesoscale Discussion 1255 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0140 PM CDT Mon Jun 22 2026
Areas affected...East-central to southeast Colorado
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely
Valid 221840Z - 222045Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent
SUMMARY...Thunderstorm development appears likely along the Front Range from central to southern Colorado in the next 1-2 hours. Watch issuance is likely as storms develop and spread east/southeast.
DISCUSSION...Latest GOES imagery depicts growing cumulus from the Denver area southward along the Front Range and into the Raton Mesa within a weak upslope flow regime. This comes as temperatures begin to warm into the low to mid 80s, which latest CAM guidance suggests is required to erode mixed-layer inhibition and support convective initiation. Based on these satellite and temperature trends, deep convective initiation appears probable within the next 1-2 hours.
Initially high-based convection will quickly spread east/southeast given the 30-40 knot west/northwest flow regime aloft. Steady intensification with eastward extent is expected as storms migrate into the axis of rich low-level moisture (dewpoints in the upper 50s to low 60s) in place along the eastern Plains. Additionally, elongated hodographs featuring 40-50 knots of effective bulk shear analyzed in recent mesoanalyses/forecast soundings (and confirmed by regional VWPs) will promote splitting supercells capable of large to very large hail (possibly as high as 2-3 inches) as well as strong outflow winds. Watch issuance will be needed this afternoon as initiation becomes more imminent and storms begin to mature.
..Moore/Hart.. 06/22/2026
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...DDC...GLD...AMA...PUB...BOU...ABQ...
LAT...LON 36970280 37000336 37190395 37440450 37650481 37900503 38230522 38670542 39010540 39270522 39400488 39420443 39420397 39310341 39230321 38930273 38590235 38220211 37820201 37390201 37190207 37070217 36970280
MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 90 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...2.00-3.50 IN
Read morehttps://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md1255.html
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SPC MD 1256
Webmaster
1 hour ago
SPC MD 1256MD 1256 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR EASTERN TN...NORTHERN GA...AND THE WESTERN CAROLINAS 
Mesoscale Discussion 1256 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0237 PM CDT Mon Jun 22 2026
Areas affected...eastern TN...northern GA...and the western Carolinas
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible
Valid 221937Z - 222130Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent
SUMMARY...Thunderstorm coverage will gradually increase through late afternoon. Sporadic strong wind gusts will be possible. A watch may be needed at some point, but a more organized severe risk is uncertain.
DISCUSSION...Clusters of thunderstorms over northern AL and Middle TN will continue to progress generally east/northeast through the remainder of the afternoon. Most of the stronger midlevel flow across the region is in the wake of an MCV/outflow boundary extending from Middle TN into northwest AL, leaving generally weak vertical shear across northern GA/eastern TN and the western Carolinas. Nevertheless, a warm and moist airmass resides across the area, resulting in moderate instability. Transient multicells/clusters may produce sporadic strong/locally damaging gusts. If a more organized cluster/bowing complex can develop upstream closer to the MCV and move into this area late this afternoon/early evening, some increased risk for damaging winds may develop. A more organized severe risk and the need for a severe thunderstorm watch is uncertain. Trends will be monitored.
..Leitman/Hart.. 06/22/2026
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...GSP...MRX...FFC...OHX...BMX...HUN...
LAT...LON 35458606 36528399 36468212 35778200 34938209 34258265 33928379 33758510 34048546 34668606 35038630 35458606
MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 90 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN
Read morehttps://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md1256.html
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SPC MD 1257
Webmaster
1 hour ago
SPC MD 1257MD 1257 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 376... FOR EASTERN WYOMING AND ADJACENT PORTIONS OF NEBRASKA...SOUTH DAKOTA AND FAR SOUTHEAST MONTANA 
Mesoscale Discussion 1257 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0310 PM CDT Mon Jun 22 2026
Areas affected...Eastern Wyoming and adjacent portions of Nebraska...South Dakota and far southeast Montana
Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 376...
Valid 222010Z - 222215Z
The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 376 continues.
SUMMARY...The threat for large hail is slowly increasing across eastern Wyoming and far western Nebraska. This threat will gradually spread east/southeast over the next few hours.
DISCUSSION...Latest GOES IR and MRMS data shows steady intensification of a trio of supercells near the Sheridan, WY area along with more isolated cells near Douglas, WY and near Kimball, NE. Across north/northeast WY, low-level moisture is more limited, but increasing ascent associated with the left-exit region of the 300 mb jet aloft continues to overspread the region, aiding in mid-level cooling and compensating for the otherwise modest moisture. This ascent will continue to promote storm intensification through early evening as cells spread east/southeast. Recent forecast guidance and SARS estimate hail sizes hint that hail sizes will most likely reach into the 1-2 inch range over the next couple of hours.
Further south, storms in east-central WY to far western NE continue to propagate into a plume of richer low-level moisture (dewpoints in the low to mid 50s) where a regional SBCAPE maximum is noted (near 2000 J/kg). Continued low-level moisture advection coupled with increasing mid-level flow attendant to the upstream mid-level wave should further augment the convective environment over the next few hours. By the 22-00 UTC period, the highest SHIP values should reside from eastern WY into western NE, suggesting that the greatest potential for 2-3 inch hail may manifest across this region.
..Moore.. 06/22/2026
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...UNR...BOU...CYS...BYZ...RIW...
LAT...LON 41020409 41600441 42690516 43860632 44660688 44990684 45300658 45400596 45320544 44630469 43310368 42520320 41580272 41180270 41030280 40820328 40790367 40830389 41020409
MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-110 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...2.00-3.50 IN
Read morehttps://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md1257.html
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SPC MD 1258
Webmaster
1 hour ago
SPC MD 1258MD 1258 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 374... FOR NORTHERN AL AND SOUTHERN MIDDLE TN 
Mesoscale Discussion 1258 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0320 PM CDT Mon Jun 22 2026
Areas affected...northern AL and southern Middle TN
Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 374...
Valid 222020Z - 222145Z
The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 374 continues.
SUMMARY...Strong/damaging wind gust potential may be increasing across northern Alabama into southern Middle Tennessee over the next 1-2 hours.
DISCUSSION...A dense cluster of convection over northern AL/southern Middle TN has shown some signs of intensification recently. If this area of convection can consolidate further, damaging wind potential will increase in the short term. This activity is occurring within a favorably shear environment, characterized by 35 kt 0-6 km effective shear and around 200 m2/s2 0-1 km SRH. Radar velocity signatures have also increased both in intensity and with some middle rotation noted. Greater forward propagation of this cluster may be underway and an ensuing risk of severe wind gusts may occur soon. If this evolution unfolds, a downstream watch may be needed.
..Leitman.. 06/22/2026
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...MRX...FFC...OHX...BMX...HUN...
LAT...LON 35108721 35448505 35338455 34938435 34558461 34308536 34188580 34138696 34138747 34328762 34738758 34908754 35108721
MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-110 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
Read morehttps://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md1258.html
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SPC Jun 22, 2026 2000 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
Webmaster
2 hours ago
SPC Jun 22, 2026 2000 UTC Day 1 Convective OutlookSPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook  Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0257 PM CDT Mon Jun 22 2026
Valid 222000Z - 231200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS AND FROM THE SOUTHEAST TO THE MID ATLANTIC COAST...
...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms capable of producing damaging winds and perhaps a couple of tornadoes should occur this afternoon and evening across portions of the Mid-Atlantic into the Southeast. Scattered severe thunderstorms are also expected across the northern/central High Plains, with large to very large hail and a tornado or two.
...20z Update Central High Plains... Minimal changes were made to the prior outlook. Strong to severe storms, including supercells, are developing across parts of WY and CO and should spread east/southeastward this afternoon and evening. Steep mid-level lapse rates and the discrete mode should favor significant severe hail with these storms into this evening. A tornado or two is also possible, focused mostly along the Cheyenne Ridge where stronger low-level shear is being observed.
...Mid Atlantic... Several rounds of storms remain likely this afternoon and evening beneath the strong mid-level zonal flow aloft. Damaging winds appear to be the most likely threat with scattered but mostly cellular storms through this evening. A tornado or two remains possible. This is most likely near the warm front across northern NJ and southern Long Island where stronger and backed low-level flow is supporting 100-150 0-1km SRH.
Some guidance shows an increase in storm clustering and stronger outflow gusts from northern VA into northern MD/DE and southern PA/NJ this evening. Should this occur, a locally more favorable corridor of damaging winds could develop. However, this remains very uncertain given the more scattered and cellular convection observed so far.
...TX/OK... Some mode signal exists for isolated convective development this afternoon along the trailing outflow boundary across north TX from the morning MCS. Very large buoyancy and steep mid-level lapse rates could support hail with these storms. However, the lack of broader large-scale ascent suggests more isolated coverage through this evening.
..Lyons.. 06/22/2026
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1120 AM CDT Mon Jun 22 2026/
...Mid Atlantic... Relatively fast zonal flow is present today from the OH Valley into the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast US, with a shortwave trough evident over OH/MI. As this feature tracks eastward, it will push a surface cold front southward across the central Appalachians and into the Mid-Atlantic region. Considerable clouds are present ahead of the front from KY/WV into VA/PA/NJ, limiting destabilization and confidence in the details of where clusters of storms may form later today. However, given the relatively strong winds aloft and dewpoints in the 60s, it would seem likely that scattered strong to severe storms will occur, capable of locally damaging winds and perhaps a tornado.
...TN/MS/AL/GA... The remnants of a severe overnight MCS are over AR/west TN/northern MS. This system has considerable mesoscale organization with an MCV noted over eastern AR. A very moist and unstable air mass is in place ahead of this system over northern MS/AL, where heating into the mid 80s will foster thunderstorm intensification this afternoon. Damaging winds are the main concern with these storms, but a low-level jet feature associated with the MCV could result in a few supercell structures and the risk of a tornado or two. Activity will track into north GA this evening. Refer to MD #1252 for further details.
...Central High Plains... Similar to yesterday, low-clouds are slowly burning off across the High Plains of eastern CO and western SD/NE/KS, where moderate CAPE values will develop by mid-afternoon. Easterly/upslope flow will contribute to scattered thunderstorm development over eastern WY and southward along the DCVZ in CO. These storms will track into the CAPE axis, where favorable deep-layer shear will promote supercells capable of very large hail and a few tornadoes.
Read morehttps://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk_2000.html
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SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Webmaster
2 hours ago
SPC Day 2 Fire Weather OutlookSPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook  Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0239 PM CDT Mon Jun 22 2026
Valid 231200Z - 241200Z
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA AND SOUTHERN UTAH...
...Southern Great Basin, Colorado Plateau and Four Corners... Dry southwesterly to westerly flow under a building ridge aloft will bring a broad fire weather concern to portions of the Southwest, southern Great Basin and CO Plateau Tuesday. Poor overnight recoveries through tonight will precede daytime minimum RH of 5-15% across this region. The very low daytime RH, sustained west-southwest winds of around 15 mph and critically dry fuels still supports this broad fire weather threat. Elevated highlights have been expanded northward into east-central NV as well as the CO Western Slope and eastern UT based on latest forecast guidance and increasingly receptive fuels.
...Northern Arizona and Southern Utah... A corridor of enhanced westerly winds up to 20 mph amid RH as low as 10% will yield a period of critical fire weather conditions for parts of northern AZ into southern UT. The highlighted area was shifted slightly eastward based on latest model guidance, with lower probabilities of reaching critical fire weather criteria across the AZ Strip.
..Williams.. 06/22/2026
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1158 PM CDT Sun Jun 21 2026/
...Synopsis... Upper ridging will persist over the Interior West while building into the Northern Plains tomorrow (Tuesday). An embedded mid-level impulse will overspread the central Rockies, supporting surface lee troughing intensification over Intermountain West. Dry and breezy conditions will result Tuesday afternoon over the southern Great Basin into the Four corners, where Elevated highlights have been introduced. Critical highlights have also been introduced where guidance consensus depicts 20+ mph sustained westerly surface winds coinciding with 10-15 percent RH atop fuels receptive to fire spread.
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
Read morehttps://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/fire_wx/fwdy2.html
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SPC Jun 22, 2026 1930 UTC Day 3 Severe Thunderstorm Outlook
Webmaster
2 hours ago
SPC Jun 22, 2026 1930 UTC Day 3 Severe Thunderstorm OutlookSPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook  Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0230 PM CDT Mon Jun 22 2026
Valid 241200Z - 251200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS...
...SUMMARY... Widely scattered severe storms are possible across the central High Plains on Wednesday with a threat for large to very large hail. More isolated severe storms are possible across portions of the upper Midwest.
...Synopsis...
A short-wave trough is forecast to move from the upper MS Valley into the upper Great Lakes ahead of a sheared vorticity maximum translating from the northern Rockies into the northern and central Plains. Those features will be associated with a belt of enhanced mid-level flow extending from the northern and central High Plains into the Great Lakes. At the surface, an area of low pressure is forecast to weaken over the upper Midwest, along a cold front advancing through that area. The western extension of that boundary will become increasingly less defined with southwestward extent into the central and southern Plains.
...Central and Southern High Plains to the lower Mississippi Valley...
As was the case for the Day 2 (Tuesday and Tuesday night) forecast period, there is considerable spread in 12Z model guidance in the location of any ongoing MCS(s) at 12Z Wednesday. The location of those features will dictate the specific location of any more concentrated damaging-wind risk later Wednesday, especially from the Ozark Plateau into lower MS Valley. There is higher confidence in widely scattered afternoon storm development across the central and perhaps southern High Plains within a low-level, upslope regime. The combination of moderate instability and 35-50 kt of deep-layer shear will support supercells capable of large to very large hail as the primary hazard.
There is some model signal that the afternoon High Plains storms will grow upscale into an MCS across lower elevations of the central Plains Wednesday night with an associated damaging-wind risk. Confidence in that scenario is currently too low to extend the 15% probability contour farther east at this time.
...Upper Midwest...
Lingering clouds associated with early-day storms may limit air mass destabilization into afternoon. However, where cloud breaks can occur, the combination of cooling temperatures aloft and modest boundary-layer moisture content will support moderate afternoon instability. Widely scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop during the afternoon in the vicinity of the surface low and frontal boundary, and within the belt of stronger mid-level flow, suggesting some potential for large hail with the strongest updrafts.
..Mead.. 06/22/2026
Read morehttps://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day3otlk_1930.html
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SPC Severe Thunderstorm Watch 377
Webmaster
2 hours ago
SPC Severe Thunderstorm Watch 377WW 377 SEVERE TSTM CO 221930Z - 230300Z 
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 377 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 130 PM MDT Mon Jun 22 2026
The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a
* Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Eastern Colorado
* Effective this Monday afternoon and evening from 130 PM until 900 PM MDT.
* Primary threats include... Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 3 inches in diameter likely Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible A tornado or two possible
SUMMARY...Scattered thunderstorms will develop this afternoon over eastern Colorado, in a relatively moist and unstable air mass. Large to very-large hail will be the primary risk with this activity.
The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 60 statute miles east and west of a line from 60 miles north of Akron CO to 35 miles west southwest of Springfield CO. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU7).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes.
&&
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 374...WW 375...WW 376...
AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 3 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 30025.
...Hart
Read morehttps://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/ww0377.html
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SPC Severe Thunderstorm Watch 376
Webmaster
3 hours ago
SPC Severe Thunderstorm Watch 376WW 376 SEVERE TSTM MT NE SD WY 221835Z - 230200Z 
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 376 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1235 PM MDT Mon Jun 22 2026
The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a
* Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Southeast Montana Nebraska Panhandle Southwest South Dakota Eastern Wyoming
* Effective this Monday afternoon and evening from 1235 PM until 800 PM MDT.
* Primary threats include... Scattered large hail likely with isolated very large hail events to 3 inches in diameter possible Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible A tornado or two possible
SUMMARY...Scattered severe/supercell thunderstorms are expected to develop this afternoon over parts of southeast Montana and eastern Wyoming - spreading southeastward through the evening. Parameters appear quite favorable for large hail in the strongest cells.
The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 60 statute miles east and west of a line from 50 miles north of Broadus MT to 40 miles west of Sidney NE. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU6).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes.
&&
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 374...WW 375...
AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 3 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 29030.
...Hart
Read morehttps://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/ww0376.html
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SPC Severe Thunderstorm Watch 375
Webmaster
4 hours ago
SPC Severe Thunderstorm Watch 375WW 375 SEVERE TSTM DC DE MD NJ PA VA WV CW 221810Z - 230100Z 
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 375 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 210 PM EDT Mon Jun 22 2026
The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a
* Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of District Of Columbia Delaware Maryland Central and Southern New Jersey Southeast Pennsylvania Central and Northern Virginia Eastern West Virginia Coastal Waters
* Effective this Monday afternoon and evening from 210 PM until 900 PM EDT.
* Primary threats include... Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph likely Isolated large hail events to 1 inch in diameter possible A tornado or two possible
SUMMARY...Thunderstorms will develop and spread across the watch area through the afternoon, moving offshore after dark. Organized cells and clusters of storms capable of damaging wind gusts are expected.
The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 90 statute miles north and south of a line from 45 miles west of Staunton VA to 30 miles southeast of Atlantic City NJ. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU5).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes.
&&
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 374...
AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 1 inch. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 26030.
...Hart
Read morehttps://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/ww0375.html
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SPC Jun 22, 2026 1730 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook
Webmaster
4 hours ago
SPC Jun 22, 2026 1730 UTC Day 2 Convective OutlookSPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook  Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1222 PM CDT Mon Jun 22 2026
Valid 231200Z - 241200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS INTO PARTS OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS...
...SUMMARY... Scattered severe storms capable of hail in excess of two inches and wind gusts greater than 75 mph are expected from the central High Plains into parts of the central and southern Plains Tuesday and Tuesday night. Isolated severe storms capable of mainly hail are possible across the northern Plains into the upper Mississippi Valley. Isolated severe storms capable of damaging winds also appear possible from the Delmarva into eastern North Carolina.
...Synopsis...
Within the base of an upper low centered over Saskatchewan and Manitoba, a vorticity lobe will progress through the northern Plains into the upper MS Valley. That disturbance will be attended by a belt of 40-50 kt flow in the mid levels, which will overspread the northern and central Plains. Elsewhere, an apparent MCV initially over western parts of VA and NC at 12Z Tuesday will progress through the Piedmont and Coastal Plain over the course of the day.
At the surface, an area of low pressure is expected to slowly move east along the southern Manitoba, northeast ND, northwest MN border region with an associated cold front trailing southwest into the central High Plains. Along the East Coast, an area of low pressure is forecast to track through VA into the Tidewater region with a trailing cold front moving through the Southeast.
...Central High Plains into the Central and Southern Plains...
The 12Z parameterized and convection-allowing models offer various scenarios in regard to the location of ongoing storms Tuesday morning, which in turn affects the evolution of diurnally enhanced storm development by afternoon, and the subsequent track of a severe MCS Tuesday night. Despite these differences, an EML will remain intact across the High Plains, which coupled with a moist, upslope regime in the low levels, will support a moderately unstable air mass by afternoon. Isolated to widely scattered storms appear possible from the vicinity of the Cheyenne Ridge south along the CO Front Range with 40-50+ kt of effective bulk shear favoring supercells capable of large to very large hail. Additional severe storms appear possible during the afternoon across lower elevations of the central and southern Plains, the details of which remain highly uncertain.
As mentioned above, the models are in generally good agreement in depicting the upscale growth of the afternoon storms into a southeastward-moving MCS capable of damaging wind swaths and significant gusts in excess of 75 mph. However, uncertainty in the specific track of the MCS precludes the introduction of higher wind probabilities and a categorical upgrade to a level 3/Enhanced Risk.
...Northern Plains into the Upper Midwest...
Multiple clusters of mainly elevated thunderstorms are expected to be ongoing Tuesday morning from the eastern Dakotas into northern NE, within a zone of forcing for ascent preceding the disturbance mentioned in the synopsis. Modest instability coupled with 40-50 kt of effective bulk shear may support some transient supercell structures capable of large hail.
Additional surface-based storms appear possible by afternoon in the vicinity of the surface front over the Red River Valley. Some uncertainty still exists in the degree of air mass destabilization owing to the potential for lingering clouds in the wake of the early-day storms. Where greater destabilization can occur, the environment will support mainly a large hail threat. Should stronger heating and resultant steep, low-level lapse rates develop in the vicinity of the front, a brief tornado or two will be possible owing to a local maximum in vertical vorticity. Confidence in that scenario is currently too low to include a 2% probability in this forecast.
...Delmarva into eastern North Carolina...
A narrow corridor of severe-weather potential may materialize Tuesday afternoon ahead of the surface low and surface front moving through the area. A slight enhancement of mid-level flow (and resultant vertical shear) will coincide with a moist and moderately unstable air mass to support some organization with the primary hazard being locally damaging wind gusts. Some tornado threat may materialize ahead of the surface low, where backed near-surface winds enhance low-level shear. A 2% tornado probability may need to be included in subsequent Day 1 outlooks should the current model signal persist.
..Mead.. 06/22/2026
Read morehttps://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day2otlk_1730.html
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SPC Severe Thunderstorm Watch 374
Webmaster
4 hours ago
SPC Severe Thunderstorm Watch 374WW 374 SEVERE TSTM AL MS TN 221720Z - 230000Z 
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 374 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1220 PM CDT Mon Jun 22 2026
The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a
* Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Northern and Central Alabama Central and Northeast Mississippi Southern Middle Tennessee
* Effective this Monday afternoon and evening from 1220 PM until 700 PM CDT.
* Primary threats include... Scattered damaging winds likely with isolated significant gusts to 75 mph possible Isolated large hail events to 1 inch in diameter possible A tornado or two possible
SUMMARY...Thunderstorms will increase in coverage and intensity across the watch area through the afternoon, with scattered severe storms expected. Damaging wind gusts are the primary concern, but there is a risk of a tornado or two as well.
The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 85 statute miles east and west of a line from 65 miles west southwest of Meridian MS to 55 miles north northeast of Huntsville AL. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU4).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes.
&&
AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 1 inch. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 65 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 25030.
...Hart
Read morehttps://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/ww0374.html
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SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
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5 hours ago
SPC Day 1 Fire Weather OutlookSPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook  Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1123 AM CDT Mon Jun 22 2026
Valid 221700Z - 231200Z
A broad area of elevated fire weather highlights remains across much of the lower CO River Basin and adjacent Four Corners region. Critically dry and breezy conditions will develop under a building upper ridge, with current RH across much of the Southwestern U.S. already in the single digits following poor overnight recoveries. Sustained southwest winds of 10-15 mph, very low RH and dry fuels are still expected for several hours during peak afternoon heating. Elevated highlights were expanded northward into portions of southeastern NV and southwestern UT where sustained south to southwest winds of around 15 mph could prove impactful to existing active wildfires.
..Williams.. 06/22/2026
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1149 PM CDT Sun Jun 21 2026/
...Synopsis... A mid-level ridge will begin building over the Interior West as upper troughing takes shape over the eastern U.S. today. An embedded impulse will overspread the central Rockies, encouraging surface trough development over the Great Basin, where dry and breezy conditions are expected through the afternoon. Fifteen (15) mph sustained west-southwesterly surface winds and 10-15 percent RH will overspread dry fuels across the southern Great Basin into the Four Corners, warranting the continuation of Elevated highlights. Dry and breezy conditions will also occur across the Snake River Plain in southern Idaho due to channeled flow. Fifteen to twenty (15-20) mph west-southwesterly surface winds will overlap with 10-15 percent RH, with Elevated highlights continued here as well.
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
Read morehttps://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/fire_wx/fwdy1.html
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