Maximum Temperature: 22°C (71°F), Minimum Temperature: 15°C (59°F), Wind Direction: westerly, Wind Speed: 10mph, Visibility: Moderate, Pressure: 1014mb, Humidity: 77%, UV Risk: 3, Pollution: Low, Sunrise: 06:21 BST, Sunset: 19:55 BST

Source: Thursday: Light Rain, Minimum Temperature: 15°C (59°F) Maximum Temperature: 22°C (71°F)

Maximum Temperature: 20°C (68°F), Minimum Temperature: 15°C (60°F), Wind Direction: southerly, Wind Speed: 8mph, Visibility: Moderate, Pressure: 1015mb, Humidity: 88%, UV Risk: 1, Pollution: Low, Sunrise: 06:19 BST, Sunset: 19:57 BST

Source: Wednesday: Heavy Rain, Minimum Temperature: 15°C (60°F) Maximum Temperature: 20°C (68°F)

Minimum Temperature: 13°C (56°F), Wind Direction: south-westerly, Wind Speed: 10mph, Visibility: Moderate, Pressure: 1017mb, Humidity: 82%, UV Risk: 1, Pollution: Low, Sunset: 20:00 BST

Source: Tonight: Light Rain, Minimum Temperature: 13°C (56°F)

Growing up, Sandie felt like an outsider and acted out. It wasn’t until later in life that she realised she wasn’t "bad".

Source: I was told I was born with bad genes. I believed it and ended up in jail at 14

Australia has avoided its usual winter COVID-19 peak, but experts warn a new variant could yet trigger a wave.

Source: No peak: Australia bucks a years-long winter sickness trend

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 011746
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM PDT Tue Sep 1 2026

For the eastern and central North Pacific east of 180 longitude:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Karina, located well west-southwest of the southern tip of the Baja
California Peninsula, on recently upgraded Hurricane Lowell, located
several hundred miles southeast of the Hawaiian Islands, and on
Tropical Storm Marie, located several hundred miles southwest of
southwestern Mexico.

Offshore of Southwestern Mexico:
An area of low pressure could form well offshore of Mexico over the
weekend. Gradual development is possible early next week as the
system moves west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph, likely remaining
well offshore of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.

&&
Public advisories on Tropical Storm Marie are issued under WMO
header WTPZ33 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCPEP3.
Forecast/Advisories on Tropical Storm Marie are issued under WMO
header WTPZ23 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCMEP3.

$$
Forecaster Hagen

Source: Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook

Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 01 Sep 2026 15:23:25 GMT

Source: Tropical Storm Edouard Graphics

000
ABNT20 KNHC 011724
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
Issued by the NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
200 PM EDT Tue Sep 1 2026

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Edouard, located over the northwestern Gulf of America.

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 7 days.

$$
Forecaster Bann

Source: Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook

Issued at 1200 PM CDT Tue Sep 01 2026

000
WTNT65 KNHC 011657
TCUAT5
 
Tropical Storm Edouard Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL052026
1200 PM CDT Tue Sep 01 2026
 
...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS SPREADING ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN 
LOUISIANA AND UPPER TEXAS COASTS...
...1200 PM CDT POSITION UPDATE...

WSR-88D radar data from Lake Charles, Louisiana, and Houston, Texas, 
indicate that Edouard's maximum sustained winds remain near 50 mph 
(85 km/h).

A National Ocean Service station near Calcasieu Pass, Louisiana, 
(CAPL1) recently reported a wind gust to 51 mph (81 km/h). A 
WeatherFlow station near Cameron, Louisiana, recently reported a 
wind gust to 46 mph (74 km/h). A National Ocean Service station near 
Texas Point, Texas, (TXPT2) recently reported a wind gust to 39 mph 
(63 km/h).
 
SUMMARY OF 1200 PM CDT...1700 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...29.6N 93.5W
ABOUT 20 MI...30 KM SW OF CAMERON LOUISIANA
ABOUT 30 MI...50 KM SE OF PORT ARTHUR TEXAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES
 
$$
Forecaster Mahoney/Berg/Reinhart

Source: Tropical Storm Edouard Public Advisory Update Number

...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS SPREADING ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN LOUISIANA AND UPPER TEXAS COASTS... ...1200 PM CDT POSITION UPDATE... As of 12:00 PM CDT Tue Sep 01 the center of Edouard was located near 29.6, -93.5 with movement NW at 8 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1000 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 50 mph.

Source: Summary for Tropical Storm Edouard (AT5/AL052026)

Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 01 Sep 2026 15:41:11 GMT

Source: Tropical Storm Marie Graphics

Tropical Storm Edouard Potential Storm Surge Flooding Map

Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 01 Sep 2026 15:29:21 GMT

Source: Hurricane Karina Graphics

Storm Surge Watch/Warning Map last updated Tue, 01 Sep 2026 14:47:15 GMT

Source: Tropical Storm Edouard Storm Surge Watch/Warning Map

Issued at 1000 AM CDT Tue Sep 01 2026

000
WTNT45 KNHC 011446
TCDAT5
 
Tropical Storm Edouard Discussion Number   5
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL052026
1000 AM CDT Tue Sep 01 2026
 
Edouard is a small but strengthening tropical storm. The center has 
been trackable this morning using NWS radar data from Lake Charles, 
Louisiana (KLCH), and recent data show the inner-core structure of 
the system is becoming better organized. There has been a notable 
increase in deep convection near and to the south of the center, and 
a recent dropsonde released in that area reported mean boundary 
layer winds of 61 kt. Doppler velocities have also notably 
strengthened during the past couple of hours, and adjusting these 
data to estimate a surface wind support raising the initial 
intensity to 45 kt. The last center dropsonde from the Air Force 
Hurricane Hunters showed the central pressure has fallen to 1000 mb.
 
Environmental and oceanic conditions are conducive for additional 
strengthening for as long as the center remains offshore. With very 
warm Gulf waters and weak vertical wind shear, the hurricane 
regional models continue to highlight the potential for continued 
strengthening through landfall. The 12-h forecast point for Edouard 
is well inland, but note that additional strengthening is expected 
that cannot be easily reflected in the official forecast. A Tropical 
Storm Warning and Hurricane Watch remain in effect for portions of 
the Upper Texas coast and southwestern Louisiana. Given the improved 
radar structure of Edouard and the expectation of additional 
strengthening, NHC will issue hourly Tropical Cyclone Updates (TCU) 
beginning at 1100 am CDT (16 UTC). Once inland, Edouard is likely 
to rapidly weaken and should dissipate on Wednesday.

Some short-term wobbles have been observed in radar data during the 
past few hours, but the longer-term motion of Edouard is 
northwestward (305/7 kt). This general motion is expected to 
continue through tonight, which will bring the center of Edouard 
onshore near the Texas/Louisiana border within the warning area this 
afternoon and then inland across southeastern Texas tonight. The 
updated NHC track forecast lies slightly to the right of the 
previous prediction based on the latest consensus trends.
 
 
Key Messages:
 
1. Edouard is strengthening as it approaches the northwest Gulf 
Coast, and tropical storm conditions are beginning along the 
southwestern Louisiana and Upper Texas coasts. Hurricane conditions, 
especially in gusts, are still possible from High Island to Cameron 
later today.
 
2. A Storm Surge Warning is in effect along the immediate coast from 
High Island, Texas, to the Vermilion/Cameron Parish Line, Louisiana, 
where peak values of 3 to 5 feet above ground level are possible.
 
3. Heavy rain will impact parts of the Upper Texas coast through 
east-central Texas into far Southwest Louisiana today and Wednesday 
as Edouard tracks inland. Flash flooding is likely across this 
region, especially in urban areas. River flooding may also be 
possible.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  01/1500Z 29.4N  93.3W   45 KT  50 MPH
 12H  02/0000Z 30.2N  94.2W   40 KT  45 MPH...INLAND
 24H  02/1200Z 31.2N  95.2W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
 36H  03/0000Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
Forecaster Reinhart

Source: Tropical Storm Edouard Forecast Discussion Number 5

Issued at 1500 UTC TUE SEP 01 2026

000
FONT15 KNHC 011445
PWSAT5
                                                                    
TROPICAL STORM EDOUARD WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER   5          
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL052026               
1500 UTC TUE SEP 01 2026                                            
                                                                    
AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM EDOUARD WAS LOCATED NEAR      
LATITUDE 29.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 93.3 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED    
WINDS NEAR 45 KTS...50 MPH...85 KM/H.                               
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   EASTERN  DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   CENTRAL  DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
                                                                    
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS                 
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...                                  
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...                                  
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...                                  
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE               
    OP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)               
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        12Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT                       
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.             
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY              
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.                 
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -   
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
LAKE CHARLES   34 12   X(12)   X(12)   X(12)   X(12)   X(12)   X(12)
 
CAMERON LA     34 75   X(75)   X(75)   X(75)   X(75)   X(75)   X(75)
 
JASPER TX      34  7   3(10)   X(10)   X(10)   X(10)   X(10)   X(10)
 
KOUNTZE TX     34 17   1(18)   X(18)   X(18)   X(18)   X(18)   X(18)
 
PORT ARTHUR TX 34 21   X(21)   X(21)   X(21)   X(21)   X(21)   X(21)
 
GALVESTON TX   34  3   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
HIGH ISLAND TX 34  4   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER REINHART

Source: Tropical Storm Edouard Wind Speed Probabilities Number 5

Issued at 1000 AM CDT Tue Sep 01 2026

147 
WTNT35 KNHC 011445
TCPAT5
 
BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Edouard Advisory Number   5
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL052026
1000 AM CDT Tue Sep 01 2026
 
...AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTERS FIND EDOUARD IS STRENGTHENING...
...CONTINUED INTENSIFICATION IS EXPECTED BEFORE EDOUARD REACHES THE
NORTHWESTERN GULF COAST TODAY...
 
 
SUMMARY OF 1000 AM CDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...29.4N 93.3W
ABOUT 30 MI...45 KM S OF CAMERON LOUISIANA
ABOUT 50 MI...80 KM SE OF PORT ARTHUR TEXAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES
 
 
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
 
None.
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
 
A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
* High Island, Texas to the Vermilion/Cameron Parish Line
 
A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* High Island, Texas to Cameron, Louisiana
 
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Port Bolivar, Texas to the Vermilion/Iberia Parish Line
 
A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening
inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline,
during the next 12 to 24 hours in the indicated locations. For a
depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service
Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. This
is a life-threatening situation. Persons located within these areas
should take all necessary actions to protect life and property from
rising water and the potential for other dangerous conditions.
Promptly follow evacuation and other instructions from local
officials.
 
A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area, in this case within the next 6 hours.
 
A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the
next 6 to 12 hours.
 
For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.
 
 
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1000 AM CDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Edouard was
located near latitude 29.4 North, longitude 93.3 West. Edouard is
moving toward the northwest near 8 mph (13 km/h), and this motion is
expected to continue through early Wednesday. On the forecast 
track, the center of Edouard is forecast to reach the northwestern 
Gulf Coast within the warning area later today and move inland over 
southeast Texas tonight.
 
Data from the Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunters indicate that 
maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts. 
Additional strengthening is forecast before Edouard makes landfall 
today, and the storm could approach hurricane strength. Rapid 
weakening is expected after the center moves inland.
 
Edouard is a small tropical cyclone. Tropical-storm-force winds 
extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the center.
 
The estimated minimum central pressure is 1000 mb (29.53 inches).
 
 
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Tropical Storm Edouard can be found in the
Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5 and WMO
header WTNT45 KNHC.
 
WIND: Tropical storm conditions will spread over portions of the
warning area during the next few hours. Hurricane conditions
are possible within the Hurricane Watch area later today.
 
STORM SURGE: The combination of storm surge and tide will cause
normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters
moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the
following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if
the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...
 
High Island, TX to Vermilion/Cameron Parish Line, LA...3-5 ft
Vermilion/Cameron Parish Line, LA to Morgan City, LA...1-3 ft
 
The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to
the right of the center. Surge-related flooding depends on the
relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary
greatly over short distances. For information specific to your
area, please see products issued by your local National Weather
Service forecast office.
 
For a complete depiction of areas at risk of storm surge inundation,
please see the National Weather Service Peak Storm Surge Graphic,
available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at5.shtml?peakSurge.
 
RAINFALL: Edouard is expected to produce rainfall totals of 3 to 6
inches with maximum totals up to 9 inches for parts of the Upper
Texas Coast inland through east-central Texas, with potential for 2
to 4 inches in far southwest Louisiana. This rainfall is likely to
produce flash flooding, especially in low-lying and urban areas.
River flooding may also be possible.
 
For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with
Edouard, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total
Rainfall Graphic available at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_at5.shtml?rainqpf and the Flash Flood Risk
graphic at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at5.shtml?ero.
 
TORNADOES: A tornado or two is possible this afternoon and evening
over parts of southwest Louisiana and southeast Texas.
 
 
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 100 PM CDT.
Next complete advisory at 400 PM CDT.
 
$$
Forecaster Reinhart

Source: Tropical Storm Edouard Public Advisory Number 5

Issued at 1500 UTC TUE SEP 01 2026

000
WTNT25 KNHC 011444
TCMAT5
 
TROPICAL STORM EDOUARD FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   5
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL052026
1500 UTC TUE SEP 01 2026
 
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 29.4N  93.3W AT 01/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  20 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 305 DEGREES AT   7 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1000 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  45 KT WITH GUSTS TO  55 KT.
34 KT....... 20NE  20SE  20SW  20NW.
4 M SEAS.... 30NE  30SE   0SW  30NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 29.4N  93.3W AT 01/1500Z
AT 01/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 29.3N  93.0W
 
FORECAST VALID 02/0000Z 30.2N  94.2W...INLAND
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT... 20NE  10SE   0SW  10NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 02/1200Z 31.2N  95.2W...POST-TROP/INLAND
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.
 
FORECAST VALID 03/0000Z...DISSIPATED
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 29.4N  93.3W
 
INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT35 KNHC/MIATCPAT5...AT 01/1800Z
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 01/2100Z
 
$$
FORECASTER REINHART

Source: Tropical Storm Edouard Forecast Advisory Number 5

Issued at 800 AM MST Tue Sep 01 2026

000
WTPZ43 KNHC 011441
TCDEP3
 
Tropical Storm Marie Discussion Number   2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP132026
800 AM MST Tue Sep 01 2026
 
This morning's GOES-18 Proxy-VIS satellite imagery indicates that
Marie is gradually becoming better organized.  Deep convection with 
cold cloud tops of -81C is developing over the surface circulation 
center, and a spiral band is wrapping around the center from the 
southwest part of the cyclone.  No changes yet in both the 
subjective and objective satellite intensity guidance, however, so 
the initial intensity is held at 40 kt for this advisory.
 
The ocean is warm, the low- to mid-levels of the atmosphere are
moist, and the deep-layer shear is low.  Subsequently, strengthening
is expected, and Marie should become a hurricane by Wednesday 
night.  By the weekend, the GFS/ECMWF SHIPS statistical intensity 
guidance and the physics-based deterministic models indicate that 
Marie will encounter a drier, stable marine layer air mass while 
traversing progressively cooler oceanic temperatures.  Accordingly, 
the NHC intensity forecast follows suit and shows Marie slowly 
weakening beyond day 4.
 
An earlier 0707 UTC OSCAT-3 scatterometer overpass and a
fortuitous 1247 UTC GPM/GMI image indicated that the surface center 
was a bit farther northeast than previously noted, and near 
the northwestern edge of the deep convective canopy.  Marie's 
initial motion is estimated to be northwestward, or 315/8 kt.  A 
mid-tropospheric subtropical ridge stretching from northern
Mexico westward over the extreme eastern Pacific should steer
the cyclone generally northwestward through Thursday.  
Afterward, the subtropical high should weaken in response to an 
amplifying mid- to upper-level trough approaching the west coast of 
the U.S. This change in the large-scale synoptic pattern is 
expected to slow Marie's forward speed.  For the remainder of the 
forecast, the aforementioned mid- to upper-level trough should fill 
and lift northeastward, allowing the ridge to build and reestablish 
north of Marie and steer the system back toward the west-northwest 
through the weekend.  There's still quite a bit of cross-track 
spread in the model suite beyond day 3, with one cluster indicating 
a north-northwestward motion while another model cluster shows a 
more west-northwestward trajectory.  The official forecast reflects 
slight adjustments to the left of the previous forecast and favors 
a blend of the skilled NOAA HCCA consensus aid and the Google 
DeepMind FNv3 ensemble mean forecast.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  01/1500Z 15.0N 108.7W   40 KT  45 MPH
 12H  02/0000Z 16.0N 109.8W   50 KT  60 MPH
 24H  02/1200Z 17.1N 111.2W   60 KT  70 MPH
 36H  03/0000Z 18.0N 112.4W   70 KT  80 MPH
 48H  03/1200Z 19.0N 113.9W   80 KT  90 MPH
 60H  04/0000Z 19.7N 115.6W   85 KT 100 MPH
 72H  04/1200Z 20.3N 117.0W   85 KT 100 MPH
 96H  05/1200Z 21.4N 119.8W   80 KT  90 MPH
120H  06/1200Z 22.3N 122.0W   75 KT  85 MPH
 
$$
Forecaster Roberts

Source: Tropical Storm Marie Forecast Discussion Number 2

Issued at 1500 UTC TUE SEP 01 2026

000
FOPZ13 KNHC 011440
PWSEP3
                                                                    
TROPICAL STORM MARIE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER   2            
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP132026               
1500 UTC TUE SEP 01 2026                                            
                                                                    
AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM MARIE WAS LOCATED NEAR        
LATITUDE 15.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 108.7 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED   
WINDS NEAR 40 KTS...45 MPH...75 KM/H.                               
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   PACIFIC  DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME     
                                                                    
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS                 
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...                                  
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...                                  
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...                                  
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE               
    OP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)               
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        12Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT                       
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.             
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY              
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.                 
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -   
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
15N 110W       34 99   1(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)
15N 110W       50 13   1(14)   X(14)   X(14)   X(14)   X(14)   X(14)
 
20N 110W       34  X   2( 2)   6( 8)   2(10)   X(10)   X(10)   X(10)
 
ISLA SOCORRO   34  X  29(29)  37(66)   2(68)   1(69)   X(69)   X(69)
ISLA SOCORRO   50  X   1( 1)   7( 8)   2(10)   X(10)   X(10)   X(10)
ISLA SOCORRO   64  X   X( X)   2( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)
 
ISLA CLARION   34  X   1( 1)  12(13)  58(71)  11(82)   X(82)   X(82)
ISLA CLARION   50  X   X( X)   X( X)  21(21)  14(35)   X(35)   X(35)
ISLA CLARION   64  X   X( X)   X( X)   7( 7)   8(15)   1(16)   X(16)
 
20N 115W       34  X   X( X)   2( 2)  50(52)  41(93)   1(94)   X(94)
20N 115W       50  X   X( X)   X( X)  15(15)  58(73)   1(74)   X(74)
20N 115W       64  X   X( X)   X( X)   6( 6)  39(45)   X(45)   X(45)
 
20N 120W       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  12(12)  34(46)   4(50)
20N 120W       50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)  12(13)   2(15)
20N 120W       64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   5( 5)   1( 6)
 
25N 120W       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   6( 7)   9(16)
 
20N 125W       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   6( 7)
 
25N 125W       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)  16(17)
25N 125W       50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)
25N 125W       64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)
 
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER ROBERTS

Source: Tropical Storm Marie Wind Speed Probabilities Number 2

Issued at 1500 UTC TUE SEP 01 2026

000
WTPZ23 KNHC 011440
TCMEP3
 
TROPICAL STORM MARIE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP132026
1500 UTC TUE SEP 01 2026
 
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.0N 108.7W AT 01/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  30 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 315 DEGREES AT   8 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1002 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  40 KT WITH GUSTS TO  50 KT.
34 KT.......120NE 160SE 180SW   0NW.
4 M SEAS....150NE 120SE  30SW  30NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.0N 108.7W AT 01/1500Z
AT 01/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.7N 108.4W
 
FORECAST VALID 02/0000Z 16.0N 109.8W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE  15SE  15SW   0NW.
34 KT...120NE 150SE 170SW  30NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 02/1200Z 17.1N 111.2W
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.
50 KT... 50NE  60SE  60SW  30NW.
34 KT...130NE 140SE 160SW  60NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 03/0000Z 18.0N 112.4W
MAX WIND  70 KT...GUSTS  85 KT.
64 KT... 30NE  20SE  10SW  20NW.
50 KT... 50NE  60SE  60SW  30NW.
34 KT...130NE 140SE 160SW  60NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 03/1200Z 19.0N 113.9W
MAX WIND  80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 40NE  30SE  25SW  30NW.
50 KT... 70NE  70SE  70SW  60NW.
34 KT...140NE 130SE 130SW 110NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 04/0000Z 19.7N 115.6W
MAX WIND  85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 45NE  40SE  35SW  40NW.
50 KT... 70NE  70SE  70SW  60NW.
34 KT...140NE 120SE 130SW 110NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 04/1200Z 20.3N 117.0W
MAX WIND  85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 45NE  40SE  35SW  40NW.
50 KT... 70NE  70SE  70SW  60NW.
34 KT...130NE 120SE 120SW 120NW.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 05/1200Z 21.4N 119.8W
MAX WIND  80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
50 KT... 70NE  60SE  60SW  60NW.
34 KT...130NE 110SE 110SW 120NW.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 06/1200Z 22.3N 122.0W
MAX WIND  75 KT...GUSTS  90 KT.
50 KT... 60NE  60SE  60SW  60NW.
34 KT...120NE 100SE 100SW 120NW.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.0N 108.7W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 01/2100Z
 
$$
FORECASTER ROBERTS

Source: Tropical Storm Marie Forecast Advisory Number 2

Issued at 800 AM MST Tue Sep 01 2026

000
WTPZ33 KNHC 011440
TCPEP3
 
BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Marie Advisory Number   2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP132026
800 AM MST Tue Sep 01 2026
 
...MARIE GRADUALLY BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED...
 
 
SUMMARY OF 800 AM MST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.0N 108.7W
ABOUT 400 MI...645 KM SW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES
 
 
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.
 
 
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 AM MST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Marie was
located near latitude 15.0 North, longitude 108.7 West. Marie is
moving toward the northwest near 9 mph (15 km/h), and a turn toward 
the west-northwest is expected on Thursday.
 
Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts.
Gradual strengthening is forecast, and Marie is expected to become
a hurricane by Wednesday night.
 
Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 205 miles (335 km)
from the center.
 
The estimated minimum central pressure is 1002 mb (29.59 inches).
 
 
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF: Swells generated by Marie will affect portions of the coast
of southwest Mexico and the Baja California Peninsula for the next
few days and will likely spread northward to southern California 
over the weekend.  These swells are likely to cause 
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office. A depiction of rip current
risk for the United States can be found at:
hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep1.shtml?ripCurrents
 
 
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 200 PM MST.
 
$$
Forecaster Roberts

Source: Tropical Storm Marie Public Advisory Number 2

...MARIE GRADUALLY BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED... As of 8:00 AM MST Tue Sep 01 the center of Marie was located near 15.0, -108.7 with movement NW at 9 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1002 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 45 mph.

Source: Summary for Tropical Storm Marie (EP3/EP132026)

Issued at 500 AM HST Tue Sep 01 2026

000
WTPZ41 KNHC 011431
TCDEP1
 
Hurricane Karina Discussion Number  21
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP112026
500 AM HST Tue Sep 01 2026
 
Karina remains a powerful category 4 hurricane, although there are 
some signs that the cyclone might be near its peak intensity. Over 
the past few hours, the eye has become cloud-filled and the 
convective pattern is not quite as symmetric. A blend of the latest 
satellite intensity estimates supports maintaining the initial 
intensity at 120 kt.  Despite being very strong, the overall cloud 
pattern and wind field are relatively compact. 

The major hurricane is moving westward at about 10 kt. A general 
slow westward to west-northwestward motion is expected during the 
next 3 to 4 days as a narrow mid-level ridge remains situated to the 
north of the hurricane. Over the weekend, a turn to the northwest 
seems likely as the ridge shifts eastward and as the cyclone 
approaches a mid- to upper-level low north of Hawaii. Little change 
was made to the previous track forecast, except for a nudge to the 
north toward the end of the period. This track forecast is based on 
a blend of the HCCA, GDMI, and TVCN models. It should be noted that 
there is a fair amount of spread from days 3 to 5, and confidence in 
that part of the track forecast is lower than average.

Karina is forecast to gradually lose strength over the next several 
days. Although the wind shear is expected to remain low for the 
next few days, progressively cooler SSTs and decreasing relative 
humidity values should cause steady weakening. However, the 
hurricane could become annular, which might cause it to weaken at a 
slower pace than average. The models are unanimous in showing 
weakening, but vary on the rate. The NHC intensity forecast is 
similar to the previous one, and lies a little above the model 
consensus. 
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  01/1500Z 18.1N 129.0W  120 KT 140 MPH
 12H  02/0000Z 18.3N 130.4W  115 KT 130 MPH
 24H  02/1200Z 18.8N 132.4W  105 KT 120 MPH
 36H  03/0000Z 19.2N 134.2W   95 KT 110 MPH
 48H  03/1200Z 19.5N 136.1W   85 KT 100 MPH
 60H  04/0000Z 19.8N 137.9W   80 KT  90 MPH
 72H  04/1200Z 20.1N 139.8W   75 KT  85 MPH
 96H  05/1200Z 21.1N 143.4W   65 KT  75 MPH
120H  06/1200Z 22.8N 146.2W   60 KT  70 MPH
 
$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

Source: Hurricane Karina Forecast Discussion Number 21

Issued at 1500 UTC TUE SEP 01 2026

000
FOPZ11 KNHC 011431
PWSEP1
                                                                    
HURRICANE KARINA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER  21                
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP112026               
1500 UTC TUE SEP 01 2026                                            
                                                                    
AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE KARINA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE   
18.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 129.0 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 
120 KTS...140 MPH...220 KM/H.                                       
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   PACIFIC  DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME     
                                                                    
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS                 
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...                                  
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...                                  
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...                                  
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE               
    OP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)               
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        12Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT                       
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.             
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY              
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.                 
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -   
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
20N 130W       34  8   2(10)   X(10)   X(10)   X(10)   X(10)   X(10)
 
20N 135W       34  X   1( 1)  61(62)  26(88)   1(89)   X(89)   X(89)
20N 135W       50  X   X( X)  20(20)  36(56)   2(58)   X(58)   X(58)
20N 135W       64  X   X( X)   7( 7)  22(29)   2(31)   X(31)   X(31)
 
20N 140W       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  66(66)  10(76)   X(76)
20N 140W       50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  33(33)   9(42)   X(42)
20N 140W       64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  15(15)   5(20)   X(20)
 
20N 145W       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  14(14)   7(21)
20N 145W       50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   3( 5)
20N 145W       64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)
 
25N 145W       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)  14(16)
25N 145W       50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)
25N 145W       64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)
 
25N 150W       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   7( 7)
 
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI

Source: Hurricane Karina Wind Speed Probabilities Number 21