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SPC MD 102
Webmaster
19 hours ago
SPC MD 102MD 0102 CONCERNING TORNADO WATCH 10... FOR PORTIONS OF WESTERN/SOUTHERN INDIANA 
Mesoscale Discussion 0102 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0526 PM CST Thu Feb 19 2026
Areas affected...Portions of western/southern Indiana
Concerning...Tornado Watch 10...
Valid 192326Z - 200100Z
The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 10 continues.
SUMMARY...Tornado Watch #10 continues until 0200 UTC. A supercell thunderstorm currently tracking across northern portions of the watch in far western/southern Indiana is the primary focus for severe activity in the short term, and has a history of rotation and brief tornadoes.
DISCUSSION...The supercell thunderstorm tracking across the northern portions of Tornado Watch #10 is the primary concern for severe weather in the next 1-2 hours, with a history of rotation and tornado production. While further north in the cooler air, VWP profiles from KIND show strong curvature of the hodograph in the lowest levels which will help support continued mesocyclone and tornado development, with values in the 0-500m layer 120 m2/s2. Even further south away from the frontal boundary, profiles from KLVX still show strong support for low-topped supercell longevity. However, some uncertainty exists in how far eastward current convection will be maintained given only modest dewpoints in the low-to-mid 50s F. In spite of this, the cooler temperatures aloft and buoyancy evident in proximity sounding profiles, combined with the strong kinematics discussed and history of tornado production, the expectation is that severe convection should continue eastward into central Indiana for at least the next two hours. This supercell will continue to be capable of all hazards, including a strong tornado.
..Halbert/Gleason.. 02/19/2026
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...IND...
LAT...LON 38928700 38938715 38998724 39048731 39158730 39248725 39348711 39398689 39438668 39478645 39498625 39518605 39488595 39478587 39438578 39308570 39248569 39148570 39068580 39018600 38978628 38958652 38948670 38928700
MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...120-150 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN
Read morehttps://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md0102.html
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SPC MD 103
Webmaster
19 hours ago
SPC MD 103MD 0103 CONCERNING TORNADO WATCH 10... FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN ILLINOIS TO THE INDIANA BORDER 
Mesoscale Discussion 0103 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0603 PM CST Thu Feb 19 2026
Areas affected...Portions of southern Illinois to the Indiana border
Concerning...Tornado Watch 10...
Valid 200003Z - 200130Z
The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 10 continues.
SUMMARY...Tornado Watch #10 continues until 0200 UTC. A cluster of supercellular thunderstorms in south-central Illinois is advancing into the watch area, and will pose a threat for all hazards over the next few hours.
DISCUSSION...As a cluster of supercell thunderstorms enters west-northwestern potions of WW10 across south-central Illinois, the threat for all hazards, including tornadoes, will persist over the next few hours.
While VWPs from KLSX shows winds in the low levels beginning to veer into more straight-line hodographs, the environment downstream of the ongoing supercells (e.g. KILX, KVWX) still show strong curvature of the hodograph in the low levels. Buoyancy remains relatively modest, but when combined with observed kinematics, the environment could continue to support mesocyclone development and maintenance as storms continue to mature and enter the watch area. There is still some uncertainty in this longevity given cooler temperatures and lower dewpoints -- particularly where storms have already tracked earlier this afternoon. Recent radar scans may indicate some down-trending of convective activity is occurring (potentially due to poor thermodynamics). Still, the environment does support a continued severe threat, particularly with any long-lived/mature supercell thunderstorms.
..Halbert/Gleason.. 02/20/2026
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...IND...PAH...ILX...LSX...
LAT...LON 38448865 38598869 38758877 38818897 38928913 39028914 39228907 39708862 39838821 39808764 39538731 39258723 39038715 38858716 38678750 38568794 38458837 38448854 38448865
MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...100-130 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN
Read morehttps://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md0103.html
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SPC MD 104
Webmaster
19 hours ago
SPC MD 104MD 0104 CONCERNING HEAVY SNOW FOR PORTIONS OF IOWA 
Mesoscale Discussion 0104 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0607 PM CST Thu Feb 19 2026
Areas affected...Portions of Iowa
Concerning...Heavy snow
Valid 200007Z - 200600Z
SUMMARY...Snow rates possibly exceeding 1 inch per hour are expected from western into central Iowa this evening.
DISCUSSION...Water-vapor imagery suggests significant midlevel drying is spreading across southeast NE into southern IA, just south of expected 700mb low track. Latest radar data supports this with a well-developed corridor of heavy snow currently noted across eastern NE into western IA. Large-scale ascent is beginning to increase downstream into central IA, and precipitation is gradually expanding into this region within the warm advection zone. Forecast soundings exhibit steep midlevel lapse rates across central IA, and reflectively suggests some convective nature with this new development that is spreading north. Over the next few hours a southwest-northeast oriented band of heavy snow should establish itself as the 700mb circulation advances east. Snow rates could exceed 1 inch per hour at times.
..Darrow.. 02/20/2026
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...DVN...ARX...DMX...FSD...OAX...
LAT...LON 41199564 41499378 42119201 43019227 42729386 42109584 41199564
Read morehttps://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md0104.html
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