|
|
|
0 members (),
1,778
guests, and
27
robots. |
|
Key:
Admin,
Global Mod,
Mod
|
|
S |
M |
T |
W |
T |
F |
S |
|
|
|
1
|
2
|
3
|
4
|
5
|
|
6
|
7
|
8
|
9
|
10
|
11
|
12
|
|
13
|
14
|
15
|
16
|
17
|
18
|
19
|
|
20
|
21
|
22
|
23
|
24
|
25
|
26
|
|
27
|
28
|
29
|
30
|
|
|
|
|
There are no members with birthdays on this day. |
Volcano earthquake report for Wednesday, 9 September 2026
• World Earthquake Report for Wednesday, 9 September 2026
• Strong mag. 5.0 earthquake - Celebes Sea, 49 km north of Tahuna, Indonesia,...
• Moderate mag. 4.7 earthquake - Philippine Sea, 135 km southeast of Shima, M...
• The 10 most powerful earthquakes in the world since 1900
• Moderate mag. 4.0 earthquake - Indian Ocean, 80 km southwest of Labuan, Kab...
|
Central North Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook
Webmaster
Yesterday at 11:17 PM
000 ACPN50 PHFO 102317 TWOCP Tropical Weather Outlook NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI Issued by NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 200 PM HST Thu Sep 10 2026 For the central North Pacific...between 140W and 180W: Active Systems: The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical Storm Lowell, located well northwest of the Hawaiian Islands, and on Tropical Storm Norbert, located several hundred miles west- southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California Peninsula. Well Southeast of the Hawaiian Islands: Disorganized showers and thunderstorms located more than 500 miles to the southeast of the Hawaiian Islands are associated with a broad trough of low pressure. Some gradual development of this system is possible over the next few days into the weekend while it moves generally northward and then meanders to the southeast of the Hawaiian Islands. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...low...30 percent. Central and Western East Pacific: Showers and thunderstorms associated with a broad area of low pressure are located several hundred miles southwest of the southwestern coast of Mexico. Gradual development of this system is anticipated, and a tropical depression is likely to form by early next week while it moves generally west-northwestward to westward over the central and western portions of the East Pacific. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...high...80 percent. $$ Forecaster Papin NNNN Source: Central North Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook
0
13
Read More
|
Tropical Storm Lowell Forecast Discussion Number 59
Webmaster
Yesterday at 08:45 PM
Issued at 1100 AM HST Thu Sep 10 2026 000
WTPA44 PHFO 102044
TCDCP4
Tropical Storm Lowell Discussion Number 59
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI EP122026
Issued by NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM HST Thu Sep 10 2026
Infrared satellite imagery over the last couple of hours depicts
Lowell's convection concentrated over a small area within its
northeastern quadrant. The system also appears heavily sheared, with
Lowell's low-level center exposed and displaced from the convection.
Subjective Dvorak intensity estimates from HFO and JTWC provided
Lowell with a final T-number of 1.5 and 2.0, respectively, which
would put the intensity at around 25-30 kt. However, given the
earlier higher scatterometer winds, and some lingering convection
currently, the initial intensity was only lowered slightly to 45
kt.
The initial motion was estimated at 270/10 kt. Lowell continues to
be steered by a mid-level high pressure system centered to the
northeast, with a cutoff low based in the north central Pacific
expected to dive down and turn the system to the northwest heading
into the weekend. Lowell's forward motion is then expected to
decrease over the weekend as it finds itself wedged between two low-
to mid-level ridges. Track models continue to exhibit a wide spread
beyond 36 h, differing in both how the cutoff low alters Lowell's
track and how slow the storm motion becomes once it's centered
between the ridges. The official track forecast was little changed
across the first 36 h, with the main changes beyond that period.
Guidance generally pulls Lowell a little more northwestward toward
the cutoff low before drifting southward at a slow motion as Lowell
becomes more vertically shallow. This turn to the south was made
slightly wider to reflect the global model consensus.
Lowell remain in a hostile environment characterized by moderate
vertical wind shear, dry mid-level air, and marginal SSTs. Despite
this environment, intensity guidance depicts a slight increase in
max winds around early Saturday morning, suggesting that the cutoff
low may briefly enhance Lowell's convection. Simulated satellite
imagery from the GFS and ECMWF, however, suggest that Lowell's
convection may wither before then, with post-tropical transition
potentially occurring before this interaction takes place. The
latest intensity forecast holds Lowell's intensity relatively steady
for the first day or so, before showing a brief increase in
intensity at 48 h. Thereafter, gradual weakening is expected to
occur through early next week. The forecast has Lowell becoming
post-tropical in 60 h, a little earlier than the previous forecast,
though it remains possible this could occur even sooner than shown
here.
KEY MESSAGES:
1. Post-storm safety: Follow advice of local officials and avoid
areas of downed power lines and flooding. Ensure generators are
properly ventilated and placed outside at least 20 feet away from
dwellings and garages to avoid carbon monoxide poisoning. During
clean up, be careful when using chainsaws and power tools. Drink
plenty of water to avoid heat exhaustion.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 10/2100Z 29.0N 168.9W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 11/0600Z 29.0N 170.4W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 11/1800Z 29.6N 171.7W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 12/0600Z 31.2N 172.2W 40 KT 45 MPH
48H 12/1800Z 32.8N 173.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
60H 13/0600Z 33.9N 174.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
72H 13/1800Z 33.8N 175.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 14/1800Z 32.9N 175.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 15/1800Z 31.0N 175.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
$$
Forecaster Evans/Papin Source: Tropical Storm Lowell Forecast Discussion Number 59
0
12
Read More
|
Tropical Storm Lowell Wind Speed Probabilities Number 59
Webmaster
Yesterday at 08:44 PM
Issued at 2100 UTC THU SEP 10 2026 000
FOPA14 PHFO 102044
PWSCP4
TROPICAL STORM LOWELL WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 59
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP122026
ISSUED BY NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2100 UTC THU SEP 10 2026
AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM LOWELL WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 29.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 168.9 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS NEAR 45 KTS...50 MPH...85 KM/H.
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME
HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...
...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...
...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE
OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)
(CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
18Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.
- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -
FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION KT
30N 170W 34 84 1(85) X(85) X(85) X(85) X(85) X(85)
30N 175W 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) 3( 6)
35N 175W 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 15(16) 1(17) 1(18)
$$
FORECASTER EVANS/PAPIN Source: Tropical Storm Lowell Wind Speed Probabilities Number 59
0
11
Read More
|
Tropical Storm Lowell Public Advisory Number 59
Webmaster
Yesterday at 08:44 PM
Issued at 1100 AM HST Thu Sep 10 2026 240
WTPA34 PHFO 102043
TCPCP4
BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Lowell Advisory Number 59
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI EP122026
Issued by NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM HST Thu Sep 10 2026
...LOWELL CONTINUES TO MOVE WESTWARD OVER THE OPEN CENTRAL
PACIFIC...
SUMMARY OF 1100 AM HST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...29.0N 168.9W
ABOUT 765 MI...1230 KM NW OF LIHUE HAWAII
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...995 MB...29.39 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 AM HST (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Lowell was
located near latitude 29.0 North, longitude 168.9 West. Lowell is
moving toward the west near 12 mph (19 km/h). A general westward
motion is forecast to continue for the next day or so. Then, the
system is expected to slow down and turn northwestward this
weekend.
Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts.
Little change in strength is forecast during the next 48 hours. A
slight increase in strength could occur on Saturday. However, steady
weakening is forecast to occur late this weekend through early next
week.
Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 185 miles (295 km)
from the center.
The estimated minimum central pressure is 995 mb (29.39 inches).
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 PM HST.
$$
Forecaster Evans/Papin Source: Tropical Storm Lowell Public Advisory Number 59
0
12
Read More
|
Tropical Storm Lowell Forecast Advisory Number 59
Webmaster
Yesterday at 08:43 PM
Issued at 2100 UTC THU SEP 10 2026 000
WTPA24 PHFO 102043
TCMCP4
TROPICAL STORM LOWELL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 59
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP122026
ISSUED BY NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2100 UTC THU SEP 10 2026
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 29.0N 168.9W AT 10/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 10 KT
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 995 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT.
34 KT.......160NE 90SE 50SW 130NW.
4 M SEAS....510NE 240SE 270SW 390NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 29.0N 168.9W AT 10/2100Z
AT 10/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 29.0N 168.3W
FORECAST VALID 11/0600Z 29.0N 170.4W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT...110NE 50SE 30SW 80NW.
FORECAST VALID 11/1800Z 29.6N 171.7W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 90NE 30SE 0SW 60NW.
FORECAST VALID 12/0600Z 31.2N 172.2W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 90NE 30SE 0SW 60NW.
FORECAST VALID 12/1800Z 32.8N 173.0W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 90NE 30SE 0SW 50NW.
FORECAST VALID 13/0600Z 33.9N 174.0W...POST-TROPICAL
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 70NE 0SE 0SW 50NW.
FORECAST VALID 13/1800Z 33.8N 175.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY
OUTLOOK VALID 14/1800Z 32.9N 175.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.
OUTLOOK VALID 15/1800Z 31.0N 175.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 29.0N 168.9W
NEXT ADVISORY AT 11/0300Z
$$
FORECASTER EVANS/PAPIN Source: Tropical Storm Lowell Forecast Advisory Number 59
0
12
Read More
|
|
Forums60
Topics822,552
Posts857,345
Members2,960
| |
Most Online102,106
Jul 10th, 2026
|
|
|
|
|
|
