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SPC MD 2240
Webmaster
Yesterday at 11:02 PM
SPC MD 2240MD 2240 CONCERNING HEAVY SNOW FOR PARTS OF THE MIDWEST 
Mesoscale Discussion 2240 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0216 PM CST Sat Nov 29 2025
Areas affected...parts of the Midwest
Concerning...Heavy snow
Valid 292016Z - 300015Z
SUMMARY...Bursts of moderate to heavy snow are most likely to evolve east/northeast from central Illinois across parts of central/northern Indiana towards the Michigan/Ohio border into this evening. Snowfall rates around 1 inch per hour are probable, briefly near 2 inches per hour possible, before waning tonight.
DISCUSSION...Within a broad swath of snow across parts of the Midwest, bursts of moderate to heavy intensity appear likely to persist north of the mixed-phase region centered on southern IL. This has been accompanied by early-afternoon lightning flashes in a confined corridor into central IL. With the dendritic growth zone centered around 550 mb, mid-level ascent is largely progged to be stronger eastward within the mixed-phase precip swath closer to the OH Valley. Bulk of guidance suggests ascent will wane after sunset farther north as the leading shortwave impulse dampens. Until that occurs, snowfall reduced visibilities from a quarter to half-mile per Springfield, Lincoln, Decatur, and Champaign IL observations should shift northeastward. This setup should support initial snowfall rates of 1-2 in/hr, becoming more localized near 1 in/hr later.
..Grams.. 11/29/2025
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...IWX...IND...LOT...ILX...
LAT...LON 40028869 40628774 41928549 42018475 41478432 40868466 39578615 39288769 39498839 40028869
Read morehttps://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md2240.html
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SPC MD 2241
Webmaster
Yesterday at 11:02 PM
SPC MD 2241MD 2241 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR CENTRAL TEXAS TO THE TEXAS COASTAL PLAIN 
Mesoscale Discussion 2241 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0317 PM CST Sat Nov 29 2025
Areas affected...Central Texas to the Texas Coastal Plain
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely
Valid 292117Z - 292315Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent
SUMMARY...Thunderstorm development is underway across north-central TX and across parts of the TX Coastal Plain. Thunderstorms are expected to generally remain sub-severe, but a few strong/severe storms are possible.
DISCUSSION...The early stages of thunderstorm development are underway near the DFW metro area where a cold front is impinging on northward returning moisture. Modest moisture advection will likely continue immediately ahead of the front across portions of central and northeastern TX for the next several hours, supporting around 500 J/kg MLCAPE and the potential for additional thunderstorms. Despite strong mid-level flow over the region, recent ACARS soundings and RAP/HRRR forecast soundings show very modest/narrow buoyancy profiles on the northern fringe of the returning moisture. This, along with the undercutting nature of the front, should hinder overall updraft intensities. Nonetheless, damaging winds, and perhaps instances of severe hail, appear possible as storms spread east/southeast given a favorable kinematic environment.
Further south, shallow convective showers have been percolating over the past 1-2 hours along and north of the I-10 corridor west/northwest of the Houston metro within a low-level confluence zone/residual gravity wave. Cumulus has gradually become more cellular within this zone and at least one attempt at deep convection is noted as temperatures warm into the upper 70s and low 80s - a few degrees warmer than anticipated by recent guidance. High-res models continue to show considerable spread/uncertainty on thunderstorm coverage within this zone in the 21-00 UTC time frame, but the warm temperatures and persistent, albeit weak, mesoscale lift suggest that at least a few additional attempts at deep convection should be anticipated prior to 00z and the arrival of the cold front later tonight. If deep convection can mature, better buoyancy (1000 J/kg MLCAPE) and slightly better low-level helicity near the surface warm front may support a relatively higher chance for strong/severe thunderstorms, including the potential for a brief tornado, though confidence in this potential is low.
Given the modest environment across northern/central TX and uncertainty pertaining to thunderstorm coverage along the Coastal Plain, watch issuance is not expected.
..Moore/Gleason.. 11/29/2025
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...LCH...SHV...HGX...FWD...EWX...
LAT...LON 29769492 29539539 29449608 29499674 29659725 29839771 30399801 31779815 32259799 32509782 32759750 32909719 32959678 32899635 32739612 30839448 30469431 30209439 29999457 29769492
MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-115 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN
Read morehttps://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md2241.html
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SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Webmaster
Yesterday at 09:53 PM
SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather OutlookSPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook  Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0348 PM CST Sat Nov 29 2025
Valid 011200Z - 071200Z
Fire concerns are expected to remain low for the D3/Monday through D8/Saturday period. A series of troughs will bring cool and wet conditions across much of the CONUS. Less rainfall is expected across portions of the Southern High Plains. Some episodic overlap of windy/dry conditions may occur, particularly across the Texas and Oklahoma Panhandles into western Texas. However, confidence in the magnitude remains low. Periods of enhanced windy/dry conditions will also be possible across portions of Southern California, with periods of offshore flow behind storm systems. Overall, fuels in these regions remain fairly wet from recent heavy rainfall which should negate any fire weather concerns.
..Thornton.. 11/29/2025
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
Read morehttps://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/exper/fire_wx/
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