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#716573
Thu 21 Mar 2024 08:48:PM
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Joined: Feb 2001
Posts: 381,903
Launch Director
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OP
Launch Director
Joined: Feb 2001
Posts: 381,903 |
SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather OutlookSPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0343 PM CDT Thu Mar 21 2024
Valid 231200Z - 291200Z
Critical fire weather conditions are anticipated Sunday afternoon across portions of the Southern High Plains, and may re-emerge later in the upcoming work week. Elsewhere across the country, a combination of precipitation chances, cool temperatures, and/or unreceptive fuels will limit the potential for widespread fire weather concerns.
...D4/Sunday - Southern High Plains... Confidence continues to increase regarding the fire weather potential Sunday afternoon as an upper-level trough settles into the Four Corners region. Medium to long-range guidance has maintained a strong signal for a deepening lee cyclone over the CO/KS region Sunday afternoon amid strengthening upper-level flow over the central/southern Rockies. This will establish a swath of strong southwesterly flow across eastern NM into western TX behind a sharpening dryline. The eastern extent of the fire weather threat will be conditional on the progression of the dryline by peak heating, with some solutions hinting that this boundary may reach into western/central OK and north/northwest TX by 21 UTC.
Relative humidity values may not be quite as low as previous critical fire weather events, but most deterministic/ensemble solutions (including bias-corrected guidance) hint that RH minimums near 20% should be fairly common. ERC values are currently near the 50th percentile, and light scattered rainfall is noted over western TX as of 20 UTC Thursday. However, even with modest RH reductions (by southern Plains standards) and marginal ERC values, an excessive loading of fine, 1-hour fuels combined with high probability for 20-30 mph winds and ~20% RH should support a wind-driven fire weather concern. Higher risk probabilities have been introduced from far southeast NM into western TX to delineate where guidance currently indicates the best overlap of the low-level thermal ridge and the mid/upper-level jet maximum should occur. This region will see the highest potential for sub-20% RH as well as gusts upwards of 40-60 mph. Further forecast refinements are anticipated as confidence in finer-scale details improves.
Heading into the upcoming work week, more regional fire weather concerns may develop across southwest TX and the Rio Grande river valley within a dry post-frontal regime. A more robust fire concern is beginning to emerge around the D8/Thursday time frame when a second upper trough could move into the region. Confidence in surface details is too low at this range to introduce risk probabilities, but trends will be monitored for this next system.
..Moore.. 03/21/2024
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
Read morehttps://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/exper/fire_wx/
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