Issued at 1500 UTC FRI SEP 14 2018 


687 
WTNT21 KNHC 141439
TCMAT1

HURRICANE FLORENCE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  61
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL062018
1500 UTC FRI SEP 14 2018

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED NORTH OF DUCK
NORTH CAROLINA...INCLUDING THE CHESAPEAKE BAY SOUTH OF NEW POINT
COMFORT.

THE HURRICANE WARNING HAS BEEN CHANGED TO A TROPICAL STORM WARNING
FROM DUCK NORTH CAROLINA SOUTH TO BOGUE INLET...INCLUDING THE
ALBEMARLE SOUND.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A STORM SURGE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SOUTH SANTEE RIVER SOUTH CAROLINA TO DUCK NORTH CAROLINA
* ALBEMARLE AND PAMLICO SOUNDS...INCLUDING THE NEUSE AND PAMLICO
RIVERS

A STORM SURGE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* EDISTO BEACH SOUTH CAROLINA TO SOUTH SANTEE RIVER SOUTH CAROLINA

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SOUTH SANTEE RIVER SOUTH CAROLINA TO BOGUE INLET NORTH CAROLINA
* PAMLICO SOUND

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* EDISTO BEACH SOUTH CAROLINA TO SOUTH SANTEE RIVER SOUTH CAROLINA

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* EDISTO BEACH SOUTH CAROLINA TO SOUTH SANTEE RIVER SOUTH CAROLINA
* BOGUE INLET NORTH CAROLINA TO DUCK NORTH CAROLINA
* ALBEMARLE SOUND

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE SOUTHEASTERN AND MID-ATLANTIC STATES
SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF FLORENCE.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 34.0N  78.0W AT 14/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  10 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-SOUTHWEST OR 245 DEGREES AT   3 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  958 MB
EYE DIAMETER  15 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  70 KT WITH GUSTS TO  85 KT.
64 KT....... 60NE  60SE  60SW  20NW.
50 KT.......100NE  80SE  80SW  40NW.
34 KT.......170NE 150SE 140SW  80NW.
12 FT SEAS..330NE 240SE 120SW   0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 34.0N  78.0W AT 14/1500Z
AT 14/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 34.1N  77.9W

FORECAST VALID 15/0000Z 33.9N  78.9W...INLAND
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.
64 KT... 15NE  30SE   0SW   0NW.
50 KT... 40NE  70SE  60SW  20NW.
34 KT...150NE 140SE 120SW  60NW.

FORECAST VALID 15/1200Z 33.8N  79.7W...INLAND
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
50 KT... 30NE  60SE   0SW   0NW.
34 KT...130NE 130SE  80SW  40NW.

FORECAST VALID 16/0000Z 33.9N  80.8W...INLAND
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT... 80NE 110SE  40SW  40NW.

FORECAST VALID 16/1200Z 34.7N  82.0W...INLAND
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 17/1200Z 37.7N  83.0W...POST-TROP/INLAND
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 18/1200Z 41.2N  78.4W...POST-TROP/INLAND
MAX WIND  20 KT...GUSTS  30 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 19/1200Z 44.4N  68.7W...POST-TROP/INLAND
MAX WIND  20 KT...GUSTS  30 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 34.0N  78.0W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 14/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER STEWART





Source: Hurricane Florence Forecast Advisory Number 61

David Cottle

UBB Owner & Administrator