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#518467
Fri 23 Aug 2019 02:32:AM
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Joined: Feb 2001
Posts: 381,903
Launch Director
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OP
Launch Director
Joined: Feb 2001
Posts: 381,903 |
Issued at 0300 UTC FRI AUG 23 2019
000
FOPZ15 KNHC 230232
PWSEP5
TROPICAL STORM IVO WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 7
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP102019
0300 UTC FRI AUG 23 2019
AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM IVO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE
16.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 114.1 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR
55 KTS...65 MPH...100 KM/H.
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME
HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...
...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...
...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE
OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)
(CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
00Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.
- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -
FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION KT
IS GUADALUPE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) X( 5)
ISLA SOCORRO 34 2 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4)
ISLA CLARION 34 74 15(89) X(89) X(89) X(89) X(89) X(89)
ISLA CLARION 50 22 22(44) 1(45) X(45) X(45) X(45) X(45)
ISLA CLARION 64 3 3( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6)
15N 115W 34 4 2( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6)
20N 115W 34 6 44(50) 8(58) X(58) X(58) X(58) X(58)
20N 115W 50 X 10(10) 4(14) X(14) X(14) X(14) X(14)
20N 115W 64 X 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2)
25N 115W 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) 2( 6) X( 6) X( 6)
20N 120W 34 1 3( 4) 1( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6)
25N 120W 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 14(17) 2(19) X(19)
25N 120W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
30N 120W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3)
$$
FORECASTER BROWN
Source: Tropical Storm Ivo Wind Speed Probabilities Number 7
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