000
WTPZ41 KNHC 191435
TCDEP1
 
Hurricane Felicia Discussion Number  22
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP062021
500 AM HST Mon Jul 19 2021
 
Felicia continues to rapidly weaken as it heads toward the Central
Pacific.  Satellite images show a shrinking area of deep convection
that is now generally confined to the northeast quadrant of the
circulation.  The Dvorak classifications continue to fall, and a
blend of the latest estimates from TAFB, SAB, and CIMSS at the
University of Wisconsin support lowering the initial intensity to
70 kt, and even that seems generous.
 
The weakening and very compact storm is surrounded by dry mid-level 
air.  This stable environment, cool 25 C SSTs, and increasing wind 
shear should cause the rapid weakening trend to continue. Felicia is 
forecast to weaken to a tropical storm later today and a remnant 
low in a few days when it expected to be in an environment of about 
40 kt of northwesterly shear and very dry air, which will likely 
cause all of the deep convection to dissipate.  The NHC intensity 
forecast is lower than the previous one, and in line with the 
majority of the latest guidance.

Felicia is moving westward at about 10 kt.  A slightly faster 
westward to west-southwestward motion is expected during the next 
several days as Felicia, or its remnants, move in the flow on the 
south side of a low- to mid-level high to its north.  The NHC track 
forecast is just a tad south of the previous one and lies close to 
the various consensus aids.  Based on the current forecast, the 
weakening system is expected to cross into the Central Pacific 
basin by tomorrow night.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  19/1500Z 16.3N 132.3W   70 KT  80 MPH
 12H  20/0000Z 16.2N 134.0W   50 KT  60 MPH
 24H  20/1200Z 16.0N 136.5W   40 KT  45 MPH
 36H  21/0000Z 15.5N 139.3W   35 KT  40 MPH
 48H  21/1200Z 14.9N 142.2W   30 KT  35 MPH
 60H  22/0000Z 14.5N 144.7W   30 KT  35 MPH
 72H  22/1200Z 14.0N 147.6W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  23/1200Z 13.6N 153.2W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H  24/1200Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
Forecaster Cangialosi