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#714562
Thu 07 Mar 2024 08:29:AM
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Joined: Feb 2001
Posts: 381,903
Launch Director
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OP
Launch Director
Joined: Feb 2001
Posts: 381,903 |
SPC Mar 7, 2024 0830 UTC Day 3 Severe Thunderstorm OutlookSPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0228 AM CST Thu Mar 07 2024
Valid 091200Z - 101200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST INTO THE CAROLINAS...
...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms capable of producing both tornadoes and damaging winds appear possible Saturday across parts of the Southeast into the Carolinas.
...Southeast into the Carolinas... An upper trough with 80-100 kt mid-level speed max will move quickly northeastward across the eastern CONUS on Saturday. With the southern-stream portion of this troughing likely to phase with the northern stream, a more amplified upper trough should eventually evolve. At the surface, the primary low should also develop northeastward across the OH Valley/Midwest, while a secondary low may also form and gradually deepen along the spine of the southern/central Appalachians through the day. At least mid 60s surface dewpoints are forecast to advance quickly northward across parts of GA/SC/NC ahead of a cold front.
Strong to severe thunderstorms will probably be ongoing Saturday morning across parts of AL into the FL Panhandle and western GA. This activity should spread quickly east-northeastward through the day in tandem with the destabilizing warm sector. Even though mid-level lapse rates should remain fairly poor, just modest diurnal heating should allow for weak instability to develop and maintain robust updraft intensity. Strong (40-50 kt) south-southwesterly low-level flow should promote fast thunderstorm motions, along with potential for severe/damaging downdraft winds with any clusters/bowing line segments that can form/persist.
There should also be some potential for supercells given the forecast strength of the low/mid-level flow and related low/ deep-layer shear. Related threat for tornadoes should continue from Saturday morning through at least early Saturday evening from GA into the Carolinas wherever convection can remain surface based. Given tendency in most guidance to show appreciable inland destabilization and greater low-level moisture farther north into SC/NC, the 15% severe area and corresponding Slight Risk have been expanded northward into these areas.
..Gleason.. 03/07/2024
Read morehttps://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day3otlk_0830.html
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