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#714837
Thu 07 Mar 2024 04:43:PM
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Joined: Feb 2001
Posts: 381,903
Launch Director
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OP
Launch Director
Joined: Feb 2001
Posts: 381,903 |
SPC MD 196MD 0196 CONCERNING HEAVY SNOW FOR NORTHEAST COLORADO TO SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA
Mesoscale Discussion 0196 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1042 AM CST Thu Mar 07 2024
Areas affected...Northeast Colorado to southwest Nebraska
Concerning...Heavy snow
Valid 071642Z - 072045Z
SUMMARY...The potential for heavy snowfall rates above 1 inch/hour will increase through early afternoon across parts of northeast Colorado into southwest Nebraska.
DISCUSSION...Over the past 1-2 hours, surface observations across northeast CO have shown a steady reduction in visibility due to falling snow as low-level temperatures fall below freezing and allow a p-type transition to mainly snow. This activity is largely being driven by a corridor of focused ascent within a warm advection regime between roughly 850-650 mb to the north of a meandering vorticity maximum (evident in water-vapor and regional radar imagery). Broad ascent within a mid-level deformation zone draped over the region should not only augment local ascent, but also prolong the duration of precipitation through the afternoon/evening. This should foster a swath of moderate to heavy snow with snowfall rates between 1-2 inches/hour. Furthermore, upstream lightning and regional 12 UTC soundings indicated mid-level lapse rates are sufficiently steep for a continuation of weak convection across parts of CO/NE, which may lead to brief bursts of heavier snowfall. Latest high-res guidance suggests the onset of heavier snowfall rates is probable during the 18-20 UTC period, which seems reasonable based on the aforementioned observed trends.
..Moore.. 03/07/2024
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...LBF...GLD...BOU...CYS...
LAT...LON 40130357 40920323 41110300 41530223 41590196 41590167 41450139 41210129 40850163 40680191 40450233 40210263 39930292 39860306 39840320 39930352 40130357
Read morehttps://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md0196.html
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