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#715929
Sat 16 Mar 2024 12:43:PM
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Joined: Feb 2001
Posts: 381,903
Launch Director
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OP
Launch Director
Joined: Feb 2001
Posts: 381,903 |
SPC Mar 16, 2024 1300 UTC Day 1 Convective OutlookSPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0740 AM CDT Sat Mar 16 2024
Valid 161300Z - 171200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LATER TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT ACROSS SOUTH TX...
...SUMMARY... Isolated severe storms with large hail and damaging winds are forecast across portions of south central/southeast Texas late today into tonight.
...South TX through tonight... A closed midlevel low will meander over AZ through tonight, while a surface front remains quasi-stationary near the Gulf coast and beneath the southern stream/subtropical jet. Outflow with convection yesterday and early this morning has complicated the surface pattern, with the effective front extending from just off the LA coast to near the TX coast. The deeper baroclinic zone appears to be a bit farther inland over south TX, and there will be some potential for sharpening of the front later this afternoon with surface heating in the wake of a morning MCS/wake low now moving off the lower TX coast.
The details of convective initiation/evolution are unclear this morning given the influence of the ongoing convection near the coast and uncertainty regarding boundary locations. Assuming sufficient recovery inland over south TX, the approach of subtle speed maxima within the subtropical jet atop weak frontal convergence could support additional thunderstorm development late this afternoon into tonight. Other storms could also form in the weak upslope flow on the east slopes of the Sierra Madre Oriental and move into south TX tonight. The northeast edge of the steeper midlevel lapse rates and boundary-layer dewpoints of 65-70 will contribute to MUCAPE of 1500-2000 J/kg in an environment with sufficient deep-layer vertical shear/hodograph length for supercells. Large hail (1-2" diameter) will be the main threat, though a cluster or two could persist overnight with the potential to produce isolated wind damage.
..Thompson/Dean.. 03/16/2024
Read morehttps://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk_1300.html
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