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#728418
Thu 04 Jul 2024 10:24:PM
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Joined: Feb 2001
Posts: 381,903
Launch Director
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OP
Launch Director
Joined: Feb 2001
Posts: 381,903 |
SPC MD 1536MD 1536 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR PORTIONS OF WESTERN TEXAS AND SOUTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO ![](https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/mcd1536.png)
Mesoscale Discussion 1536 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0501 PM CDT Thu Jul 04 2024
Areas affected...Portions of western Texas and southeastern New Mexico
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely
Valid 042201Z - 050000Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent
SUMMARY...Severe storms with a few severe gusts and perhaps some marginally severe hail are possible this afternoon across portions of west Texas and southeast New Mexico. A watch is not anticipated.
DISCUSSION...Storms are ongoing this afternoon near the Texas/New Mexico border and across the southern Texas Panhandle in an environment characterized by large dewpoint depressions and inverted-V thermodynamic profiles per surface observations and short-term RAP forecasts. These storms are also situated well south of the best deep layer shear in an environment with 20 kts or less of effective bulk shear. Due to the large evaporative cooling potential with the inverted-V thermodynamic profiles and steep low-level lapse rates, some downburst activity is possible, and this may result in a few severe gusts. Additionally, with the deep CAPE profile, most of which is above the freezing level, some marginally severe hail is possible with some of the stronger storms. With time, storms expected to continue moving slowly to the east with short-term guidance dissipating most convection near sunset. Additionally, some storm clustering and merging of cold pools may occur, and this may also result in a risk for severe gusts.
..Supinie/Hart.. 07/04/2024
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...OUN...SJT...LUB...AMA...MAF...ABQ...
LAT...LON 33020444 34200365 34620281 34820159 34850011 34609975 34289968 33400077 32520152 30810237 30140331 30180393 31550452 33020444
Read morehttps://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md1536.html
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