Day 2 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1228 PM CDT Sun Jul 03 2022

Valid 041200Z - 051200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN PARTS OF THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES AND PLAINS...AND PARTS OF THE UPPER MIDWEST...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms appear possible from
parts of the northern Rockies/Plains eastward into the Midwest and
Great Lakes regions on Monday. Large hail and damaging winds should
be the main threats.

...Synopsis...
A broad trough will continue to remain across the Northwest. The
upper-level ridge across the central U.S. is expected to amplify
during the period. At the surface, a cold front is expected to
advance through the northern Plains with a warm front moving
northward into the Upper Midwest/Great Lakes.

...Upper Midwest...
The evolution of convection during the afternoon will be highly
dependent on thunderstorms that are expected early in the forecast
period over parts of western/central Iowa. One possible scenario is
for the early morning convection to intensify as the airmass in
eastern Iowa and southern Wisconsin destabilizes. At least
currently, confidence in this evolution is low given a majority of
guidance brings this activity through too early for much
destabilization to occur. A second, and more probable, scenario
would be for airmass recovery/destabilization to occur in the wake
of the morning activity. Additional storm development along the
residual outflow would occur somewhere within southeastern
Minnesota, northeastern Iowa, and into south-central Wisconsin. In
either case, the environment would be supportive of organized severe
storms. Dewpoints in the upper 60s to low 70s within the eastern
edge of the steeper mid-level lapse rate plume should support
2500-3500 J/kg MLCAPE. Shear will be relatively modest (35-45 kts)
away from the stronger mid-level flow to the north. Large hail and
damaging winds will be the primary threats should storms develop
during the afternoon. Most guidance suggests that discrete storms
would quickly grow upscale given the shear vector roughly parallel
to the warm front/outflow boundary.

There is guidance that suggests the early Monday morning convection
will diminish in time for destabilization to occur farther north
into the Wisconsin Northwoods as the front advances. This does not
seem all that plausible given the presence of a low-level jet that
should sustain convection overnight.

...Northern Rockies and adjacent Plains...
Broad cyclonic flow aloft will be maintained across the northern
Rockies and parts of the northern Plains. However, modest mid-level
height rises are still expected as compared to Sunday. Post-frontal
easterly flow will help maintain surface dewpoints in the 50s F to
perhaps near 60F in eastern Montana into the western Dakotas.
1000-2000 J/kg MLCAPE and 40-50 kts of shear will support organized
storms capable of large hail and damaging winds. Once again, some
clustering could occur through the afternoon leading to a corridor
of increased wind damage potential. Storm coverage may remain
limited due to the modest height rises.

..Wendt.. 07/03/2022