000

ABPZ20 KNHC 022350

TWOEP



Tropical Weather Outlook

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL

500 PM PDT Sun Oct 2 2022



For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:



Active Systems:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane

Orlene, which is approaching Las Islas Marias near southwestern

Mexico.



South-Southwest of the Baja California Peninsula:

Showers and thunderstorms continue to show signs of organization

associated with an area of low pressure located several hundred

miles south-southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California

peninsula. Environmental conditions appear conducive for additional

development, and a tropical depression is likely to form during the

next day or two as the system moves slowly northward.

* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.

* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.



South of southern Mexico:

A broad area of low pressure located several hundred miles

south of the Gulf of Tehuantepec is producing a disorganized area

of showers and thunderstorms. Environmental conditions are

forecast to be somewhat conducive for gradual development during

the next several days. The low is forecast to move generally

west-northwestward during the next couple of days, but could turn

northwestward after midweek.

* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.

* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.



$$

Forecaster Papin


Source: Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook