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Hurricane Otis Wind Speed Probabilities Number 9

#702380 Tue 24 Oct 2023 02:57:PM

Joined: Feb 2001

Posts: 381,904

Los Angeles, USA

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Launch Director

Joined: Feb 2001

Posts: 381,904

Los Angeles, USA

Issued at 1500 UTC TUE OCT 24 2023



000
FOPZ13 KNHC 241457
PWSEP3
                                                                    
TROPICAL STORM OTIS WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER   9             
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP182023               
1500 UTC TUE OCT 24 2023                                            
                                                                    
AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM OTIS WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE
14.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 99.1 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR  
60 KTS...70 MPH...110 KM/H.                                         
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   PACIFIC  DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME     
                                                                    
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS                 
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...                                  
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...                                  
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...                                  
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE               
    OP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)               
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        12Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT                       
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.             
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY              
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.                 
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -   
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
15N 105W       34  X   1( 1)   1( 2)   X( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
MANZANILLO     34  X   1( 1)   2( 3)   2( 5)   4( 9)   X( 9)   X( 9)
 
L CARDENAS     34  X   3( 3)  21(24)  15(39)   5(44)   X(44)   X(44)
L CARDENAS     50  X   X( X)   3( 3)   8(11)   5(16)   X(16)   X(16)
L CARDENAS     64  X   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)   3( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)
 
ZIHUATANEJO    34  X  12(12)  39(51)  11(62)   3(65)   X(65)   X(65)
ZIHUATANEJO    50  X   X( X)  12(12)  11(23)   3(26)   X(26)   X(26)
ZIHUATANEJO    64  X   X( X)   4( 4)   6(10)   1(11)   X(11)   X(11)
 
15N 100W       34 44   5(49)   2(51)   X(51)   X(51)   X(51)   X(51)
15N 100W       50  4   1( 5)   1( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)
15N 100W       64  1   1( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)
 
ACAPULCO       34 11  78(89)   3(92)   1(93)   X(93)   X(93)   X(93)
ACAPULCO       50  1  46(47)   9(56)   1(57)   X(57)   X(57)   X(57)
ACAPULCO       64  X  18(18)   7(25)   X(25)   X(25)   X(25)   X(25)
 
P MALDONADO    34 20  16(36)   4(40)   X(40)   1(41)   X(41)   X(41)
P MALDONADO    50  1   3( 4)   1( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)
 
P ANGEL        34  X   2( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)   1( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER PASCH