Day 4-8 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0355 AM CST Thu Dec 21 2023

Valid 241200Z - 291200Z

...DISCUSSION...
Upper troughing is expected to extend from the High Plains into
central Mexico early D4/Sunday morning. A series of shortwave
troughs are expected to progress through this trough as it gradually
shifts eastward. The lead shortwave in this series is expected to
move across the Southeast on D5/Monday. Modest moisture will be in
place and some isolated thunderstorms are possible over the
Southeast as this shortwave moves through. Most of the stronger
mid-level flow will lag to the west of this wave, but some overlap
between the modest buoyancy and shear could support a low-coverage
severe potential.

By D6/Tuesday, the evolution of these shortwaves will likely have
resulted in the development of a mature mid-latitude cyclone
centered over the Lower MO Valley/Mid MS Valley vicinity. As this
system matures, an attendant cold front is expected to push eastward
across the TN Valley and Southeast on D5/Monday and D6/Tuesday.
Buoyancy will likely be limited ahead of this front, but some
isolated thunderstorms are still possible, particularly across the
Southeast.