SPC MD 197
MD 0197 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR NORTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA TO SOUTHEAST KANSAS

Mesoscale Discussion 0197
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0127 PM CST Thu Mar 07 2024

Areas affected...North central Oklahoma to southeast Kansas

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

Valid 071927Z - 072200Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

SUMMARY...Thunderstorm development is expected across north-central
Oklahoma and southeast Kansas in the coming hours. These storms will
likely pose a threat for large hail and damaging winds, and perhaps
a tornado or two. Trends are being monitored for a possible watch
issuance.

DISCUSSION...Over the past several hours, gradually clearing skies
across north-central OK and south-central KS have allowed
temperatures to warm into the mid 60s to low 70s. Although diurnal
mixing has scoured moisture to the south of the synoptic frontal
zone (dewpoints have fallen into the mid to upper 40s), dewpoints
remain in the mid 50s along the surface warm front and to the north
of a differential heating/outflow boundary draped across northern
OK. With steep mid-level lapse rates overspreading the region,
MLCAPE is gradually increasing with further improvement possible
amid a subtle influx of low-level moisture from northeast OK within
the southeasterly flow regime. Thunderstorm initiation is probable
in the coming hours in the vicinity of the surface low and/or along
the differential heating boundary as ascent associated with a subtle
mid-level perturbation overspreads the region (denoted by a cirrus
plume currently over the TX Panhandle). Latest HRRR/WOFS guidance
suggests this should occur during the 21-23 UTC time frame. Wind
profiles will be favorable for supercells, and enhanced low-level
helicity between the differential heating boundary and warm front
may support a locally higher tornado threat across northern
OK/south-central KS. Further downstream into southeast KS, the
gradual erosion of the stratiform rain/cloud field casts uncertainty
on destabilization, but a few robust storms will likely persist and
pose a hail/wind threat this evening. Trends will continue to be
monitored for watch issuance.

..Moore/Hart.. 03/07/2024

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...SGF...EAX...TSA...TOP...ICT...OUN...

LAT...LON   36499692 36689742 36789777 36839802 37119812 37539782
            38059705 38309623 38469552 38439498 38099470 37759464
            37309480 36949538 36669625 36499692 

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