Mesoscale Discussion 1888
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0513 PM CDT Mon Aug 12 2024

Areas affected...North-central Montana

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

Valid 122213Z - 130015Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

SUMMARY...A potential will exist for marginally severe gusts and
hail early this evening across parts of north-central Montana. No
watch issuance is anticipated.

DISCUSSION...The latest water-vapor imagery shows a subtle shortwave
trough over the northern Rockies, embedded in southwest mid-level
flow. At the surface, a mesolow is analyzed over north-central
Montana, with upslope east-southeasterly flow located across much of
northern and eastern Montana. Isolated thunderstorms have developed
near and to the north of the low along a narrow corridor of
instability, where the RAP is estimating SBCAPE in the 1000 to 1500
J/kg range. Short-term forecast soundings in north-central Montana
early this evening have a relatively dry boundary layer, but show
steep lapse rates and moderate deep-layer shear. This may be enough
for a marginal severe threat for a few hours. Strong gusts and hail
will be possible.

..Broyles/Edwards.. 08/12/2024

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...GGW...TFX...

LAT...LON   47221015 47150938 47340862 47740811 48320827 48880909
            48961048 48861165 48541205 48011188 47221015