Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0448 PM CDT Sat Aug 31 2024

Valid 021200Z - 081200Z

A midlevel trough will move across northern CA/southwest OR and
continue east-northeastward across OR into ID D2/Sun through
D3/Monday. Ahead of this feature, an increase in moisture and ascent
will support potential for isolated dry thunderstorms across the
Pacific Northwest extending into the Northern Rockies. As a
mid-level speed max moves through the trough, an increase in surface
winds is expected D3/Monday to D4/Tuesday, overlapping very dry
antecedent conditions across portions of the Great Basin.

Beyond D4/Tuesday, high pressure will build back in across the
western US, with a warming and drying trend. Monsoonal moisture will
gradually shift southward with drying conditions extending into the
desert Southwest. Winds will remain mostly light where fuels are dry
keeping fire weather concerns low. 

...Dry/Windy...
Surface winds will increase across northern Nevada into northeastern
California and southern Oregon on D3/Monday as a speed max moves
through the base of the midlevel trough. Sustained west
southwesterly winds at 15-20 mph will overlap afternoon relative
humidity reductions to 10-15 percent. The highest confidence in
overlap of fuels and windy/dry conditions will be across
northwestern Nevada into far northeastern California, where 70%
probabilities were maintained in this outlook. 

Dry and windy conditions will continue eastward into portions of
southern Idaho and the Northern Rockies on D4/Tuesday. The highest
confidence for potential Critical conditions will be across the
Snake River Plain, where a 40 percent delineation was maintained
with this outlook.

...Isolated Dry Thunderstorms...
A mix of dry/wet thunderstorms will be possible overnight across
eastern Oregon into Idaho D2/Sunday into D3/Monday as the trough and
accent shift north and eastward. Several days of boundary-layer
drying (beneath the large-scale ridge) preceding this thunderstorm
event has made fuels receptive and will pose at least some risk of
lightning-induced ignitions.

Thunderstorm potential will continue across the northern Rockies on
Day 4/Tuesday, though gradually increasing moisture and
precipitation cast uncertainty on the overall fire-weather risk
which precluding Isolated Dry Thunderstorm probabilities.

..Thornton.. 08/31/2024

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...