Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1141 AM CDT Thu Sep 12 2024

Valid 121700Z - 131200Z

...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR MUCH OF THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN
HIGH PLAINS...

No changes to the ongoing forecast. Locally elevated conditions are
possible as northerly/northeasterly winds continue in the Sacramento
Valley into the afternoon. Additionally, locally elevated conditions
are also possible in parts of the Upper Midwest. These conditions
will be both marginal and brief and no highlights will be added.

..Wendt.. 09/12/2024

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0135 AM CDT Thu Sep 12 2024/

...Synopsis...
A deep mid-level trough over the northern Rockies is forecast to
intensify as it moves eastward and ejects over the northern/central
Plains today and tonight. As the trough moves east, a lee low/trough
will quickly deepen, supporting strong surface winds over the
Plains. A cold front approaching from the west will move through the
Great Basin also supporting strong surface winds over the Rockies.
Dry and windy conditions will favor critical fire-weather concerns
across the Intermountain West and western Plains through this
evening.

 ...Central and northern Plains...
As the upper-level trough approaches from the west this morning,
southerly surface winds are expected to rapidly increase over much
of the High Plains. Winds should continue to intensify through the
day as low pressure and the trailing lee trough deepen.
South/southwesterly gusts of 20-30 mph are possible along with RH
values below 25%. RH will be considerably higher farther east, as
low-level moisture advects northward. Still, strong gusts of 25-30
mph are likely with pockets of afternoon RH as low as 25-30%. Strong
winds will accelerate drying of fine fuels after recent scattered
precipitation, with critically dry fuels expected over much of the
central and northern Plains by this afternoon. With the potent
combination of strong winds and low RH likely over several hours,
widespread elevated to critical fire-weather conditions are
expected.
  
...Intermountain West...
Across parts of western CO/WY, strong southwesterly winds are
expected ahead of the cold front moving out of the eastern Great
Basin. Aided by the strong flow aloft, wind gusts of 25-30 mph are
likely. Dry southwesterly flow and warm temperatures will support
afternoon RH values below 20%. Meteorological conditions are quite
conducive to fire spread. Despite some recent drying, area fuels are
not particularly dry after rainfall in the last 48 hours. However,
given the magnitude of the wind and relatively dry conditions,
several hours of elevated to near-critical fire-weather conditions
still appear likely, especially over parts of western CO and eastern
UT.

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...