Day 4-8 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0341 AM CDT Fri Sep 13 2024

Valid 161200Z - 211200Z

...DISCUSSION...
Guidance has trended increasingly consistent with the evolution of a
closed mid/upper low initially over northern/central CA at 12Z
Monday. This low should become an open wave as it pivots northeast
towards the northern High Plains by late Tuesday, likely inducing
surface cyclogenesis in the eastern MT vicinity. Despite increasing
agreement in track/timing, the consensus trend is for a weakening
mid-level jet ejection, in the meridional flow regime ahead of the
trough. As such, the amplitude of the severe-storm risk is still
uncertain, but an area of interest for a future 15 percent highlight
remains evident across the northern High Plains. 

This shortwave trough should dampen and slow as it encroaches on the
persistent blocking pattern in the East. In the wake of this wave,
the next in a series of shortwave impulses should amplify along the
Pacific Coast mid-week. Thereafter, predictability drops
considerably by late week.