268 
WTPZ43 KNHC 041432
TCDEP3
 
Tropical Depression Eight-E Discussion Number   2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP082025
500 AM HST Mon Aug 04 2025
 
Satellite imagery since the previous advisory shows little overall 
structural change in Tropical Depression Eight-E. The system 
continues to produce mainly fragmented convective bands, with a few 
intermittent bursts of deeper convection over the low-level 
circulation center. The overall organization has not appreciably 
improved, and the most recent subjective Dvorak current intensity 
estimates from TAFB and SAB remain at 2.0/30 kt. Given these 
data and the satellite presentation, the initial intensity is held 
at 30 kt.

The depression is moving toward the west-northwest, or 295/13 kt, 
along the southern side of a strong subtropical ridge. This ridge is 
expected to persist through much of the forecast period, steering 
the system generally west-northwestward for the next several days. A 
slightly more northwestward motion is possible by day 5 as it moves 
into the Central Pacific basin and responds to a weakness in the 
ridge far north of Hawaii. The latest NHC track forecast is very 
close to the previous one and remains close to the consensus aids.

The system is forecast to steadily strengthen during the next couple 
of days as it moves over warm waters and through a moist, low-shear 
environment. It is expected to become a tropical storm by tonight 
and could approach hurricane strength between 36 and 60 hours. After 
that time, a gradual weakening trend is anticipated as the cyclone 
moves over sea surface temperatures below 26 degrees C and begins to 
entrain drier mid-level air within a more stable environment. 
Despite these less favorable conditions, much of the guidance 
maintains a well-defined cyclone with deep convection through the 
120-hour forecast period, with only gradual weakening. The official 
forecast remains slightly above the intensity guidance through 
midweek, then more gradually trends back toward the consensus aids 
thereafter.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  04/1500Z 14.2N 119.9W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  05/0000Z 14.9N 121.7W   40 KT  45 MPH
 24H  05/1200Z 15.9N 124.1W   45 KT  50 MPH
 36H  06/0000Z 16.8N 126.6W   50 KT  60 MPH
 48H  06/1200Z 17.7N 129.1W   60 KT  70 MPH
 60H  07/0000Z 18.4N 132.0W   55 KT  65 MPH
 72H  07/1200Z 18.9N 135.1W   50 KT  60 MPH
 96H  08/1200Z 20.0N 141.5W   45 KT  50 MPH
120H  09/1200Z 21.7N 147.2W   45 KT  50 MPH
 
$$
Forecaster Gibbs (CPHC)