000
WTPZ44 KNHC 252035
TCDEP4
 
Hurricane Narda Discussion Number  17
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP142025
200 PM PDT Thu Sep 25 2025
 
A fortuitous 1329 UTC SAR RCM-1 NRCS image revealed a 15 nm 
symmetric eye beneath a small CDO and a deep convective curved 
band located over the eastern side of the cyclone.  This 
afternoon's METOP-B scatterometer pass indicated that the sustained 
tropical-storm-force winds have expanded over the eastern 
semi-circle of the cyclone.  The initial intensity is held at 80 kt 
and is based on the various subjective and objective intensity 
estimates.
 
There's still a small window of opportunity for Narda to strengthen
some during the next 12-24 hours while it remains over warm waters, 
and favorable upper-wind conditions.  Subsequently, Narda
could once again become a category 2 hurricane by Friday.
Over the weekend, Narda is expected to traverse progressively
cooler SSTs while moving into more stable/drier thermodynamic
environmental conditions.  Accordingly, weakening should occur 
after day 1 and continue through the end of the period.  The 
official intensity forecast is based on a blend of the IVCN and 
Decay-SHIPS statistical intensity guidance and specifies Narda 
becoming a post-tropical cyclone in 4 days.
 
The initial motion is estimated to be generally westward, 
or 280/14 kt.  By Friday night, a mid-latitude upper-level trough 
situated over central California is expected to dip southward toward 
northern Baja California, causing Narda to slow down and gradually 
turn toward the northwest temporarily.  By the 72-hour period, the 
cyclone should begin a north-northeast to northeast turn in 
response to an major shortwave trough approaching the U.S. west 
coast from the northeastern Pacific.  The NHC track forecast has 
been adjusted slightly to the left of the previous forecast and 
lies between the HCCA Corrected Consensus aid and the GDM FNv3 
ensemble model.
 
Narda's wind radii have been adjusted based on a 1631 UTC METOP-B
scatterometer pass.
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  25/2100Z 16.2N 118.0W   80 KT  90 MPH
 12H  26/0600Z 16.4N 120.0W   85 KT 100 MPH
 24H  26/1800Z 16.9N 122.6W   85 KT 100 MPH
 36H  27/0600Z 17.4N 124.8W   80 KT  90 MPH
 48H  27/1800Z 18.2N 126.4W   70 KT  80 MPH
 60H  28/0600Z 19.1N 127.2W   60 KT  70 MPH
 72H  28/1800Z 20.3N 127.4W   50 KT  60 MPH
 96H  29/1800Z 22.1N 126.4W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
120H  30/1800Z 23.6N 125.2W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 
$$
Forecaster Roberts