Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0253 PM CDT Sun Oct 26 2025

Valid 262000Z - 271200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE CENTRAL GULF COAST...

...SUMMARY...
The risk for a couple of tornadoes and occasional damaging gusts may
persist this afternoon through tonight across parts of coastal
Alabama and the Florida Panhandle.

...20z Update...

No changes are needed to the current D1 Convective Outlook. With the
warm front slightly offshore and stronger 850 mb flow displaced to
the north, the most robust cells have remained over the Gulf this
afternoon. It does still appear that later this evening that 850
flow may increase again across the coast, with more favorable dew
points/moisture moving inland and potential for a few rotating cells
to move inland. As such, have maintained the Slight Risk with this
update. See previous discussion for more information.

..Thornton.. 10/26/2025

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1110 AM CDT Sun Oct 26 2025/

...Central Gulf Coast...
Rotating cells along/near the coast of MS/AL have a history of
producing at least a couple of tornadoes earlier this morning, with
the latest VWP from KMOB still showing favorable low-level hodograph
curvature and elongation. With time, the enhanced low-level flow
associated with an upper trough moving eastward across the lower MS
Valley should tend to become mostly displaced to the north of
ongoing convection. Still, sufficient low-level and deep-layer shear
are forecast to overlap with the narrow warm sector that should
remain draped along/very near the immediate coast of southern AL and
parts of the FL Panhandle this afternoon through tonight. Brief
tornadoes will remain the primary threat with low-topped, rotating
cells that can move onshore and remain surface based. Occasional
damaging winds may also occur. Some guidance suggests that the
severe threat may persist this evening/overnight as the modest
low-level jet axis shifts eastward and greater surface dewpoints
move inland. Have therefore extended the Slight Risk eastward to
include more of southern AL and parts of the FL Panhandle to account
for this possibility. The northward/inland extent of appreciable
severe risk will remain constrained by a less unstable airmass where
generally 50s surface dewpoints exist.