Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0341 PM CST Wed Nov 05 2025

Valid 071200Z - 131200Z

...Synopsis...
An amplifying upper-level ridge across the West with a complimentary
deepening trough over the eastern CONUS should evolve through the
weekend into early next week. At the surface, a strong cold front
will quickly push southeastward from the Northern Plains on Day
4/Saturday, reaching the Atlantic Coast by Day 5-6/Sunday-Monday.
Precipitation associated the cold front/parent surface low moving
through the Northeast and ushering in of a much colder air mass
across much of the central and eastern U.S., should mitigate fire
weather concerns for the broader region through early next week. The
focus for fire weather concerns should be concentrated across the
southern and central Plains where dry conditions will prevail
through the midweek.

...Days 3-5/Friday-Sunday...
Strong winds behind an expansive cold front and robust deep layer
northerly flow will move into the Central Plains by Day 4/Saturday,
reaching the TX Gulf Coast by early Day 5/Sunday. Winds combined
with a dry, continental air mass and dry fuels/cured grasses is
still expected to bring increased fire weather concerns to the
region over the weekend. 40% critical probabilities remain for
eastern CO/western KS on Saturday, with fire weather threat moving
into southern TX by Sunday.

...Days 6-8/Monday-Wednesday...
Dry offshore flow could support enhanced fire weather concerns
across the Deep South/Southeast on Day 6/Monday. However,
uncertainty in precipitation distribution over the weekend and thus
future fuel status, translates into a lower predictability for
Monday. Forecast guidance indicates a broad dry return flow pattern
across the Southern Plains developing on Day 7/Tuesday as lee
troughing across the High Plains deepens and surface high pressure
slides into the southeastern U.S. A 40% probability has been
introduced across central TX to highlight the increased fire weather
threat.

..Williams.. 11/05/2025

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...