Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1027 AM CST Fri Nov 14 2025

Valid 141700Z - 151200Z

No changes are needed to the current D1 Fire Weather Outlook. See
previous discussion below for more info.

..Thornton.. 11/14/2025

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1258 AM CST Fri Nov 14 2025/

...Synopsis...
Elevated fire weather conditions are expected today across portions
of the Plains where rainfall deficits over the past two weeks have
led to gradual drying of fine fuels. A low-amplitude upper wave
noted in early-morning water-vapor imagery will propagate through
the apex of a long-wave ridge centered over the central CONUS. A
surface low attendant to this upper feature will shift east across
the Canadian Prairies through the day, resulting in increased dry,
westerly downslope flow along the northern/central High Plains and
portions of the southern High Plains.

...Nebraska...
Early-morning surface observations show a pocket of dry air
(dewpoints in the 20-25 F range) across the CO/WY/NE tri-state
region with further drying expected as downslope warming/drying
increases through the afternoon. RH minimums between 15-20% appear
likely and should coincide with 15-20 mph winds (gusting to 25-30
mph at times) by peak heating when boundary-layer mixing will be
maximized. Latest high-res ensemble guidance depicts the highest
probability for sustained critical conditions across portions of
west-central NE, though the exact coverage remains somewhat
uncertain based on spread in deterministic solutions. Regardless,
widespread elevated fire weather conditions are likely with areas of
critical conditions possible. Given some fire activity over the past
24 hours, fuels will support the fire weather concern.  

...Eastern New Mexico/Texas...
Further south, drier conditions are noted across portions of central
NM where dewpoints remain in the teens. This dry air mass will
spread east through the day with RH values falling to the low teens
as westerly winds become more prevalent. However, greater
displacement from the primary surface low to the north should result
in a more muted wind response. Sustained winds near 15 mph appear
most probable for the majority of the region, though gusts up to
20-25 mph are possible. Pockets of elevated fire weather conditions
are possible across much of the region, though the current risk area
depicts where confidence in sustained elevated conditions is highest
per recent guidance.

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...