Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1000 AM CST Tue Mar 03 2026

Valid 031700Z - 041200Z

A surface front is oriented generally southeast to northwest from
western Oklahoma through the Oklahoma/Texas Panhandles to along/near
the Front Range. No changes were made to the outlook, but there is
some uncertainty regarding elevated conditions developing in
north-northeastern portions of the Elevated area due to the frontal
position and expected southwest movement of it later today and
tonight. Additionally, locally elevated conditions may extend
through east/southeast portions of the Texas Panhandle. Please see
the previous discussion for more details.

..Nauslar/Stearns.. 03/03/2026

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1256 AM CST Tue Mar 03 2026/

...Synopsis...
A mid-level shortwave trough currently analyzed over the Great Basin
and Four Corners will eject eastward across the High Plains today.
At the surface, a deepening lee low will develop south/southeastward
from eastern Colorado into west Texas while high pressure builds
across the West. A southward trailing dryline coupled with stronger
flow aloft will enhance surface winds across portions of the
southern High Plains ahead of a southward moving cold front. When
coupled with dry conditions forecast behind the dryline, elevated to
locally critical fire weather conditions are expected over the
southern High Plains this afternoon.

...Southern High Plains...
As the primary mid-level trough begins to eject eastward, moderate
height falls and increasing westerly flow aloft will deepen a
trailing lee trough/dryline across eastern Colorado and New Mexico.
The developing lee surface cyclone will gradually sag
south/southeastward into west Texas into this afternoon.
Simultaneously, building high pressure across the West will couple
with the deepening low to enhance the surface pressure gradient
across the eastern New Mexico. Aided by modest mid-level winds, this
gradient is forecast to support sustained westerly winds of 15-20
mph during the afternoon, with downsloping and warm temperatures
yielding low humidity below 20%. When overlapped with areas of
abundant dry fuels and recent fire activity, several hours of
elevated fire-weather conditions are probable this afternoon.

Some locally stronger winds (sustained 20-25 mph with gusts of 25-30
mph) may develop with RH falling below 15% across portions of
eastern New Mexico for a few hours this afternoon. However, the
duration of sustained stronger winds is expected to be short as the
upper jet will gradually weaken as the mid-level trough ejects
farther to the east. Nevertheless, a few hours of near critical
conditions are possible across eastern New Mexico, with the greatest
potential expected to be along the northern edge of the Llano
Estacado and within the Canadian River Valley, where terrain may
favor local wind enhancements. A southward moving cold front will
bring an end to fire weather concerns through the overnight hours,
with increasing RH and an abrupt shift to northeasterly winds
accompanying the frontal passage.

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...