Day 4-8 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0252 AM CDT Wed Mar 11 2026

Valid 141200Z - 191200Z

...DISCUSSION...
...Days 4-6/Sat-Mon...

An upper trough will begin to deepen as it moves over the northern
Rockies and into the northern/central High Plains on
Saturday/Saturday night. As this occurs, a lee cyclone will deepen
as it shifts east across the central Plains toward the MO Valley by
early Sunday. Modified Gulf moisture will return northward in
response to increasing southerly low-level flow ahead of the surface
cyclone and attendant cold front. Medium range guidance is in fairly
good agreement that any deeper/higher quality moisture will remain
confined to east TX and the immediate Gulf coast on Sunday. With
northward extent into the Mid-South, Mid-MS and Lower OH, and TN
Valleys, 50s F dewpoints appear more likely. The upper trough will
intensify and shift east across the Midwest and south-central U.S.
on Sunday, but stronger flow aloft will remain displaced from better
quality moisture return. While some severe potential could develop
from east TX into the Lower OH/TN Valleys as a strong cold front
tracks east across the central U.S. on Sunday, probabilities appear
less than 15 percent at this time.

This system will shift east across the eastern U.S. on Monday,
though any severe potential along the East Coast appears low at this
time as the primary forcing for ascent lags behind the surface
front.

...Days 7-8/Tue-Wed...

An amplified upper ridge will build across the western U.S. during
the end of Tuesday and Wednesday while upper troughing persists
across the East. Surface high pressure and the prior cold frontal
passage into the Gulf will leave a stable and dry airmass in place,
precluding severe potential.