SPC MD 695
MD 0695 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR PORTIONS OF THE MID-ATLANTIC

Mesoscale Discussion 0695
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0210 PM CDT Sun May 10 2026

Areas affected...portions of the Mid-Atlantic

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

Valid 101910Z - 102145Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

SUMMARY...Isolated low-topped convection may produce locally strong
wind gusts, with an isolated damaging wind gust or two possible.

DISCUSSION...Latest regional radar imagery depicts isolated,
low-topped convection developing along portions of the
Appalachians/Blue Ridge. While low-level moisture will limited ahead
of an approaching cold front (surface dewpoints in the 40s to
low-50s F), latest mesoanalysis and recent ACARS profiles from
DCA/BWI depict weak buoyancy (100-300+ J/kg MLCAPE), steep low-level
lapse rates (8.5-9.0 C/km), and deep, well-mixed boundary layers
across the region. This will promote some potential for isolated
gusty winds, and perhaps a damaging wind gust or two, with any
stronger downdrafts as convection spreads eastward across the area.
With the severe risk forecast to remain limited in coverage and
magnitude, watch issuance is not expected.

..Chalmers/Gleason.. 05/10/2026

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...PHI...AKQ...CTP...LWX...RNK...PBZ...RLX...

LAT...LON   39347927 39737824 39917767 40147705 40257666 40447614
            40527559 40507519 40357492 40087501 39777529 39477564
            39237591 38827640 38287730 37917828 37677898 37717973
            37878041 38078068 38328071 38898012 39347927 

MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH

Read more
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md0695.html