Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0758 PM CDT Fri May 15 2026

Valid 160100Z - 161200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER MUCH OF
IOWA INTO FAR SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms capable of producing severe gusts and large
hail remain likely this evening centered over Iowa. Isolated to
scattered severe gusts also remain possible over a broader area from
parts of the southern High Plains to the Upper Midwest.

...IA and southern WI into northeast KS/northern MO...
Several clusters of severe storms are currently ongoing across
western into northern IA, with other cells into southeast MN. All
this is occurring near and ahead of a cold front associated with the
glancing upper wave to the north. Moderate instability has developed
as lower 60s F dewpoints spread into the area, and effective
deep-layer shear near 50 kt will continue to support organization
into an MCS as outflows aggregate. Until then, large damaging hail
will also be possible. More isolated activity also extends into far
southeast NE, with other failed attempts at initiation toward far
northern KS. The increasing southwest low-level jet this evening may
support additional development later this evening as the 00Z TOP
sounding remains moist and unstable.

For more information see mesoscale discussions #0729 and #0730.

...Western TX...western OK...southwest KS...
Scattered high-based storms continue to produce locally severe gusts
from parts of western TX into western OK. While capping will
increase this evening, a few more hours of damaging wind threat
appear likely with the activity moving into northwest TX. Additional
isolated activity may also develop anywhere from western OK into
southwest KS as moisture wraps around the surface low and lapse
rates remain steep.

..Jewell.. 05/16/2026