Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0456 PM CDT Fri Jul 03 2026

Valid 051200Z - 111200Z

Upper-level heights build over the southern/central Intermountain
West this weekend into early next week as an upper high begins to
develop over the Southwest. A weak upper low will track
north-northeast over California into the northern Rockies Day
3/Sunday - Day 4/Monday. Moisture will move northward this weekend
through early next week as south-southwest flow develops over much
of the West. An upper-level trough is forecast to move into the
Northwest around mid-next week, with weak ridging/higher heights
remaining across the southern US. 

As moisture increases into the greater Four Corners region,
thunderstorm chances will increase. Given that low-levels will
remain dry west of the Divide, and that PWAT values are likely to
remain below 0.9" on the northern portions of this moisture plume,
isolated to scattered mixed wet/dry thunderstorms are likely to
develop. Forecast guidance currently favor portions of northern
Arizona, central/eastern Utah, and western Colorado for drier
thunderstorm development early next week. These outlook areas also
have very to record dry fuels. The 10% DryT areas may shift and
potentially expand, including into eastern Nevada, as forecast
guidance coalesces. While mixed wet/dry thunderstorms are likely
across portions of New Mexico, central Colorado, and southeast
Arizona, consecutive days of thunderstorm development will likely
reduce the risk of new ignitions.

Isolated to scattered mixed wet/dry thunderstorms are possible
across portions of northern California into southeast Oregon on Day
3/Sunday into Day 4/Monday. This may include nocturnal thunderstorms
during Day 3/Sunday night. PSA Fire Danger charts indicate ERCs are
below average for this time of year and below the 90th percentile.
Given the uncertainty of thunderstorm development and fuel
receptiveness, no DryT probabilities were included. 

As upper-level troughing moves into the Northwest next week, gusty
Cascade Gap winds are likely to develop with dry/breezy conditions
spilling into the Columbia Basin. However, the timing and magnitude
of these conditions remain uncertain, and this will continued to be
monitored in subsequent outlooks.

..Nauslar.. 07/03/2026

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...