Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0512 PM CDT Fri Jul 10 2026

Valid 121200Z - 181200Z

...Synopsis...
Strong upper troughing will persist over the Pacific Northwest
through early next week, meanwhile amplifying ridging and southerly
flow aloft will encourage monsoonal moisture to slowly translate
northward. Ensembles indicate the potential for thunderstorms on
Days 3-5/Sunday-Tuesday across portions of the Intermountain West,
where preceding hot and dry conditions may increase fuel
receptivity. PWATs are forecast to increase quickly while
instability becomes more widespread by Day 5/Tuesday, indicating
deeper moisture could promote areas of heavy rainfall. Initial
thunderstorm development and lightning on the periphery of
appreciable precipitation will present a concern for potential
ignitions where receptive fuels exist. Farther east, warm weekend
temperatures and minimal recent rainfall has led to a dry fuelscape
across parts of the Upper Great Lakes. As ridging flattens over the
northern CONUS late next week, stronger flow aloft may allow broader
fire weather concerns to emerge in the Upper Midwest.

...Days 3-4/Sunday-Monday...
High pressure will expand across the central CONUS this weekend and
early next week, yielding near-record high temperatures and very dry
conditions in Idaho, Montana, Wyoming, and the Dakotas. Beneath
upper-level troughing and strong southwesterly flow, tight surface
pressure gradients will promote gusty winds and critically low RH to
overspread portions of the Northwest, northern Great Basin, and the
northern Plains. While some uncertainty remains regarding fuel
receptivity across the Northern Rockies and adjacent Plains, 40%
Critical probabilities have been expanded on Day 3/Sunday (and
introduced on Day 4/Monday) where guidance depicts dry and breezy
conditions amid forecast ERCs approaching the 80-90th percentile. 

...Dry Thunderstorm Potential...
As the ridge strengthens and high pressure centers over the Greater
Four Corners region, the upper pattern will favor the advection of
monsoonal moisture northward where hot and dry antecedent conditions
have led to receptive fuels across portions of the Interior West.
There remains significant forecast uncertainty in where sufficient
instability will support dry thunderstorm development on the fringes
of monsoonal moisture. Some guidance does indicate meager convective
potential on Day 4/Monday along the Sierra Nevada into south-central
Oregon if instability can accommodate, but spread is still too high.
As a result, 10% probabilities for dry thunderstorms have been
withheld for Day 4/Monday and beyond; however, trends will be
monitored in future outlook cycles.

..Elizalde-Garcia.. 07/10/2026

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...