000
WTPZ41 KNHC 240839
TCDEP1
 
Hurricane Fausto Discussion Number  22
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP062026
1100 PM HST Thu Jul 23 2026
 
An earlier GMI microwave pass around 0104 UTC showed the western 
eyewall of Fausto starting to erode. Since the last advisory, 
however, infrared satellite imagery shows that deep convection with 
cold cloud tops near -75C has wrapped back around the inner core. 
Meanwhile, the eye continues to appear ragged from time to time. 
Objective satellite estimates from UW-CIMSS range from 81 to 88 kt, 
while the subjective TAFB Dvorak satellite intensity estimate is 
T4.5/77 kt. Given the latest satellite trends and a blend of these 
estimates, the intensity is increased to 85 kt for this advisory.
 
A ridge to the north continues to steer Fausto toward the west, or 
280 degrees at 13 kt. This general west to west-northwestward motion 
is expected to persist throughout the forecast period. On this 
track, the system should pass just north of the Hawaiian Islands by 
Day 5. Little change was made to the NHC track forecast, which 
remains lies near the southern edge of the guidance envelope near 
the HCCA corrected-consensus aid and the Google DeepMind ensemble 
mean.
 
Fausto remains in a marginal environment with sea surface 
temperatures of 26-27C and low-to-moderate mid-level wind shear, 
which could allow the intensity to fluctuate over the next day or 
so. Surrounding dry air has so far failed to penetrate the inner 
core. Conditions are expected to become more hostile in 36 to 48 
hours as mid-level relative humidity drops below 50 percent, 
followed by increasing westerly wind shear beyond Day 3. 
Accordingly, the updated forecast calls for gradual to steady 
weakening, in line with recent model trends. While several regional 
hurricane models, particularly those with more northern tracks, 
depict faster weakening and decay into a remnant low before Day 5, 
the official NHC forecast maintains continuity. As the track 
forecast lies on the southern edge of the guidance envelope, Fausto 
is forecast to remain a tropical cyclone throughout the 5-day 
period.
 
Key Messages:
 
1. Fausto is forecast to approach the Hawaiian Islands during the
early to the middle portion of next week. The risk of some impacts
from wind and rainfall is increasing.  However, it is too soon to
determine the exact location or magnitude of these impacts, and
interests there should continue to monitor the progress of this
storm.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  24/0900Z 18.5N 129.9W   85 KT 100 MPH
 12H  24/1800Z 18.8N 131.9W   80 KT  90 MPH
 24H  25/0600Z 19.1N 134.5W   75 KT  85 MPH
 36H  25/1800Z 19.5N 136.8W   70 KT  80 MPH
 48H  26/0600Z 19.8N 139.0W   65 KT  75 MPH
 60H  26/1800Z 20.1N 141.5W   60 KT  70 MPH
 72H  27/0600Z 20.4N 144.3W   55 KT  65 MPH
 96H  28/0600Z 21.0N 150.6W   45 KT  50 MPH
120H  29/0600Z 21.5N 156.3W   35 KT  40 MPH
 
$$
Forecaster Kelly