000
WTPZ42 KNHC 241437
TCDEP2
 
Tropical Depression Seven-E Discussion Number   1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP072026
900 AM CST Fri Jul 24 2026
 
Showers and thunderstorms have become better organized with the area 
of low pressure that the NHC has been monitoring well offshore of 
southern Mexico. In addition, 0807 UTC AMSR-2 passive microwave 
images indicate the system has a closed low-level circulation with 
good definition. The current satellite presentation suggests it 
could be dealing with some northeasterly shear, with deep convection 
mostly west and southwest of the estimated center position. Since 
this system meets tropical cyclone criteria, we are initiating 
advisories on Tropical Depression Seven-E with an initial intensity 
of 30 kt based on a T2.0 Dvorak classification from TAFB. Some 
scatterometer data expected later today should help refine the 
center position and intensity estimates.

The estimated initial motion is west-northwestward (285/10 kt), but 
this is somewhat uncertain since the depression just formed. The 
system should maintain a west-northwestward or northwestward heading 
during the next several days with a ridge entrenched to its north 
and northeast. Overall, the track model guidance is tightly 
clustered with limited cross-track spread. There are more 
differences in the along-track direction, with the Google Deep Mind 
ensemble mean significantly faster than the rest of the models. The 
first NHC track forecast uses a consensus approach and generally 
falls between the simple (IVCN) and corrected (HCCA) consensus aids.

Generally weak deep-layer vertical wind shear, very warm SSTs around 
30C, and a strongly divergent upper-level environment are likely to 
support steady to rapid intensification (RI) during the next few 
days. The bulk of the intensity guidance is very aggressive with 
strengthening, particularly in the 24-72 h window when the shear 
falls below 10 kt. The DTOPS shows a 76 percent chance of a 65-kt 
increase in 72 h, and more than 60 percent of the Google Deep Mind 
ensemble members show the system becoming a major hurricane. The 
NHC intensity forecast explicitly shows RI between 36-72 h and has 
it reaching major hurricane status early next week, in agreement 
with the simple consensus (IVCN) and slightly below the HCCA aid. 
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  24/1500Z  9.0N 100.5W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  25/0000Z  9.3N 101.7W   40 KT  45 MPH
 24H  25/1200Z 10.5N 103.7W   45 KT  50 MPH
 36H  26/0000Z 11.7N 106.2W   55 KT  65 MPH
 48H  26/1200Z 12.9N 108.5W   70 KT  80 MPH
 60H  27/0000Z 14.0N 110.5W   85 KT 100 MPH
 72H  27/1200Z 15.3N 112.3W  100 KT 115 MPH
 96H  28/1200Z 17.2N 115.0W  100 KT 115 MPH
120H  29/1200Z 19.0N 118.0W   90 KT 105 MPH
 
$$
Forecaster Reinhart